【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--5-大学课件20

Chapter5TheBehaviourofInterestRates©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-2DeterminantsofAssetDemand©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-3DerivationofBondDemandCurve(F–P)i=RETe=PPointA:P=$950($1000–$950)i==0.053=5.3%$950Bd=$100billion©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-4DerivationofBondDemandCurvePointB:P=$900($1000–$900)i==0.111=11.1%$900Bd=$200billionPointC:P=$850,i=17.6%Bd=$300billionPointD:P=$800,i=25.0%Bd=$400billionPointE:P=$750,i=33.0%Bd=$500billionDemandCurveisBdinFigure1whichconnectspointsA,B,C,D,E.Hasusualdownwardslope©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-5DerivationofBondSupplyCurvePointF:P=$750,i=33.0%,Bs=$100billionPointG:P=$800,i=25.0%,Bs=$200billionPointC:P=$850,i=17.6%,Bs=$300billionPointH:P=$900,i=11.1%,Bs=$400billionPointI:P=$950,i=5.3%,Bs=$500billionSupplyCurveisBsthatconnectspointsF,G,C,H,I,andhasupwardslope©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-6SupplyandDemandAnalysisoftheBondMarketMarketEquilibrium1.OccurswhenBd=Bs,atP*=$850,i*=17.6%2.WhenP=$950,i=5.3%,BsBd(excesssupply):PtoP*,itoi*3.WhenP=$750,i=33.0,BdBs(excessdemand):PtoP*,itoi*©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-7LoanableFundsTerminology1.Demandforbonds=supplyofloanablefunds2.Supplyofbonds=demandforloanablefunds©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-8ShiftsintheBondDemandCurve©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-9FactorsthatShifttheBondDemandCurve1.WealthA.Economygrows,wealth,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright2.ExpectedReturnA.iinfuture,Reforlong-termbonds,BdshiftsouttorightB.e,RelativeRe,BdshiftsouttorightC.Expectedreturnofotherassests,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright3.RiskA.Riskofbonds,Bd,BdshiftsouttorightB.Riskofotherassets,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright4.LiquidityA.LiquidityofBonds,Bd,BdshiftsouttorightB.Liquidityofotherassets,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-10FactorsthatShiftDemandCurveforBonds5-11ShiftsintheBondSupplyCurve1.ProfitabilityofInvestmentOpportunitiesBusinesscycleexpansion,investmentopportunities,Bs,Bsshiftsouttoright2.ExpectedInflatione,Bs,Bsshiftsouttoright3.GovernmentActivitiesDeficits,Bs,Bsshiftsouttoright©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-12FactorsthatShiftSupplyCurveforBonds5-13Changesine:theFisherEffectIfe1.RelativeRETe,Bdshiftsintoleft2.Bs,Bsshiftsouttoright3.P,i©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-14EvidenceontheFisherEffect5-15BusinessCycleExpansion1.Wealth,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright2.Investment,Bs,Bsshiftsouttoright3.IfBsshiftsmorethanBdthenP,i©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-16EvidenceonBusinessCyclesandInterestRates©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-17RelationofLiquidityPreferenceFrameworktoLoanableFundsKeynes’sMajorAssumptionTwoCategoriesofAssetsinWealthMoneyBonds1.Thus:Ms+Bs=Wealth2.BudgetConstraint:Bd+Md=Wealth3.Therefore:Ms+Bs=Bd+Md4.SubtractingMdandBsfrombothsides:Ms–Md=Bd–BsMoneyMarketEquilibrium5.OccurswhenMd=Ms6.ThenMd–Ms=0whichimpliesthatBd–Bs=0,sothatBd=Bsandbondmarketisalsoinequilibrium©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-181.Equatingsupplyanddemandforbondsasinloanablefundsframeworkisequivalenttoequatingsupplyanddemandformoneyasinliquiditypreferenceframework2.Twoframeworksarecloselylinked,butdifferinpracticebecauseliquiditypreferenceassumesonlytwoassets,moneyandbonds,andignoreseffectsoninterestratesfromchangesinexpectedreturnsonrealassets©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-19LiquidityPreferenceAnalysisDerivationofDemandCurve1.Keynesassumedmoneyhasi=02.Asi,relativeRETeonmoney(equivalently,opportunitycostofmoney)Md3.DemandcurveformoneyhasusualdownwardslopeDerivationofSupplycurve1.AssumethatcentralbankcontrolsMsanditisafixedamount2.MscurveisverticallineMarketEquilibrium1.OccurswhenMd=Ms,ati*=15%2.Ifi=25%,MsMd(excesssupply):Priceofbonds,itoi*=15%3.Ifi=5%,MdMs(excessdemand):Priceofbonds,itoi*=15%©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-20MoneyMarketEquilibrium©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-21RiseinIncomeorthePriceLevel1.Income,Md,Mdshiftsouttoright2.Msunchanged3.i*risesfromi1toi2©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-22RiseinMoneySupply1.Ms,Msshiftsouttoright2.Mdunchanged3.i*fallsfromi1toi25-23©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-24MoneyandInterestRatesEffectsofmoneyoninterestrates1.LiquidityEffectMs,Msshiftsright,i2.IncomeEffectMs,Income,Md,Mdshiftsright,i3.PriceLevelEffectMs,Pricelevel,Md,Mdshiftsright,i4.ExpectedInflationEffectMs,e,Bd,Bs,Fishereffect,iEffectofhigherrateofmoneygrowthoninterestratesisambiguous1.Becauseincome,pricelevelandexpectedinflationeffectsworkinoppositedirectionofliquidityeffect5-25DoesHigherMoneyGrowthLowerInterestRates?©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.5-26EvidenceonMoneyGrowthandInterestRates