【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--ch21-大学课

Chapter21MonetaryPolicyStrategy:TheInternationalExperience©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-2RoleofaNominalAnchorTiesDownExpectationsHelpsAvoidTime-ConsistencyProblem1.Arisesfrompursuitofshort-termgoalswhichleadtobadlong-termoutcomes2.Time-consistencyresidesmoreinpoliticalprocess3.Nominalanchorlimitspoliticalpressurefortime-consistency©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-3Exchange-RateTargetingAdvantages1.Fixesforinternationallytradedgoods2.Anchorsexpectations3.Automaticrule,avoidstime-consistency4.Easytounderstand:“soundcurrency”asrallyingcry5.Helpseconomicintegration6.SuccessfulinreducingFrance,UK,Mexico©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-4Exchange-RateTargetingDisadvantages1.LossofindependentmonetarypolicyProblemsafterGermanreunification:UK,Frenchmonetarypolicytootight2.OpentospeculativeattacksEurope,Sept.1992;Mexico:1994;Asia:19973.Successfulspeculativeattackdisastrousforemergingmarketcountriesbecauseitleadstofinancialcrisis4.Weakenedaccountability:loseexchange-ratesignal21-5CurrencyBoardsvs.DollarizationCurrencyBoards1.Domesticcurrencyexchangedatfixedrateforforeigncurrencyautomatically2.Fixedexchangeratewithverystrongcommitmentmechanismandnodiscretion3.Usualdisadvantagesoffixedexchangerate4.Stillsubjecttospeculativeattack5.LoseabilitytohavelenderoflastresortDollarization1.Evenstrongercommitmentmechanism2.Nopossibilityofspeculativeattack3.Usualdisadvantagesoffixedexchangertae4.Loseseignorage©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-6Summary:AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofDifferentMonetaryPolicyStrategies©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-7Summary:AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofDifferentMonetaryPolicyStrategies21-8MonetaryTargetingCanada1.TargetsM1till1982,thenabandonsit2.1988:decliningtargets,M2asguideUnitedKingdom1.TargetsM3andlaterM02.ProblemsofMasmonetaryindicatorJapan1.ForecastsM2+CDs2.Innovationandderegulationmakeslessusefulasmonetaryindicator3.Highmoneygrowth1987-1989:“bubbleeconomy,”thentightmoneypolicyGermanyandSwitzerland1.Notmonetaristrigidrule2.TargetsusingM0andM3:changesovertime3.Allowsgrowthoutsidetargetfor2-3years,butthenreversesovershoots4.Keyelements:flexibility,transparency,andaccountability©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-9MonetaryTargetingAdvantages1.Abletocopewithdomesticconsiderations2.Signalsareimmediate3.ImmediateaccountabilityofcentralbankDisadvantages1.Bigif:alladvantagesrequirereliablerelationshipbetweengoalandtargetedaggregate2.Inmanycountries,weakrelationshipbetweengoalandM-aggregatePoorcommunicationsdeviceandaccountability©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-10InflationTargetingFiveElements1.Publicannouncementofmedium-termš-target2.Institutionalcommitmenttopricestability3.Informationinclusivestrategy4.Increasedtransparencythroughpubliccommunication5.Increasedaccountability21-11InflationTargetinginNewZealand,Canada,andtheUK©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-12InflationTargetingAdvantages1.Allowsfocusondomesticconsiderations2.NotdependentonreliablerelationshipbetweenM-aggregateandinflation3.Readilyunderstoodbypublic4.Reducepoliticalpressuresfortime-consistentpolicy5.Focusontransparencyandcommunication6.Increasedaccountabilityofcentralbank7.Performancegood:ande,andstayslowinbusinesscycleupturn©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-13InflationTargetingDisadvantages1.Delayedsignalling2.Toomuchrigidity3.Potentialforincreasedoutputfluctuations4.LoweconomicgrowthNominalGDPTargeting1.Closetoinflationtargetingwithconcernaboutoutputfluctuations2.ProblemofannouncingspecifictargetforrealGDPgrowth3.Harderforpublictounderstand©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.21-14MonetaryPolicywithanImplicitNominalAnchorForward-LookingandPreemptivetoDealWithLongLagsAdvantages1.Focusondomesticconsiderations2.HasworkedverywellintheU.S.3.IfItAin’tBrokeWhyFixIt?Disadvantages1.Lackoftransparencyandaccountability2.Dependenceonpersonalities3.Inconsistentwithdemocraticprinciples