【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--ch27-大学课

Chapter27MoneyandInflation©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-2MoneyandInflation:TheEvidence“InflationisAlwaysandEverywhereaMonetaryPhenomenon”(M.Friedman)EvidenceIneverycasewhenhighforsustainedperiod,MgrowthishighExamples:1.LatinAmericaninflations2.GermanHyperinflation,1921–23Controlledexperiment,particularlyafter1923invasionofRuhr—governmentprintsmoneytopaystrikers,1million%Meaningof“inflation”Friedman’sstatementusesdefinitionofascontinuing,rapidlyrisingpricelevel:Onlythendoesevidencesupportit©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-3GermanHyperinflation:1921–2327-4ResponsetoContinuallyRisingMsMonetaristandKeynesianView1.Mcontinually,shiftsADtorightfromAD1toAD2toAD3,etc.2.YYn,wages,ASshiftstoleftfromAS1toAS2toAS3,etc.3.PcontinuallyrisesfromP1toP2toP3,etc.:i.e.,haveinflation©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-5MonetaristandKeynesianViewsofMonetaristViewOnlysourceofADshiftsandinFigure2canbeMsgrowthKeynesianViewAllowsforothersourcesofADshifts,butcomestosameconclusionthatonlysourceofsustainedhighisMsgrowth1.Figure3showsthatfiscalpolicywithoutMsgrowthonlycausesP,butnotsustained2.Figure4showsthatsupplyshockdoesnotleadtosustained©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-6ResponsetoOne-ShotIncreaseinGGpermanently1.ADshiftsrighttoAD22.YYn,ASshiftsintoAS23.PtoP2,butdoesn’tkeeprising©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-7ResponsetoSupplyShockNegativeSupplyShock1.ASshiftsintoAS22.YYn,wages,ASshiftsbacktoAS13.Punchanged,no©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-8Cost-PushInflationHighEmploymentTargetatYn1.Workersraisewagesbecauseeither:wanthigherrealwagesorehigh2.ASshiftsin3.YYn,governmentshiftsADout4.Workersraisewagesagain,andgothroughsteps2,3,and4,etc.5.Pcontinually:i.e.,get©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-9Demand-PullInflationHighEmploymentTarget,YTYn1.Y=YnYT,governmentshiftsADout2.Y=YTYn,ASshiftsin3.Y=YnYT,governmentshiftsADout,andrepeatsteps2and3,etc.4.Pcontinually:i.e.,get©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-10BudgetDeficitsandGovernmentBudgetConstraintDEF=G–T=MB+B1.Deficitfinancedbybonds,noeffectonMBandMs2.Deficitnotfinancedbybonds,MBandMsFinancingpersistentbudgetdeficitbymoneycreationleadstosustained1.DeficitfinancedbyMsleadstoADshiftsout,asinFig27.22.Ifdeficitpersists,MscontinuallyandgetPcontinually,i.e.,asinFig27.2Conclusion:Deficit,onlyifitis1.Persistent2.Financedbymoneycreationratherthanbybonds©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-11BudgetDeficitsandBudgetdeficitsinothercountries1.Bondfinancehard2.DeficitlikelytoleadtomoneycreationandBudgetdeficitsinU.S.1.Largecapitalmarket,socanbondfinance2.Fedhaschoicewhethertomonetizedeficit,butmaybepressuredtodoso3.RicardianequivalencemaymeannoeffectofbudgetdeficitsoninterestratesConclusion:Deficitsdonotnecessarily©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-12BudgetDeficitsandInterestRates27-13InflationandMoneyGrowth1.Moneyandinflationrelationshipcloseuntil19802.After1980relationshipbreaksdown©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-14GovernmentDebttoGDP1.Debt/GDPfalls1960–802.Deficitscan’tbesourceofmoneycreationand27-15UnemploymentandtheNaturalRateofUnemploymentHighemploymenttargetssourceof1960-801.UUn1965-73suggestsdemand-pull,withYTYn2.UUn1974-80suggestscost-push3.UUnandafter1980©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-16Activist/NonactivistDebate©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-17Activist/NonactivistDebateCasefornonactivistpolicystrongerifexpectationsofpolicymatter1.Economywon’tstopatpoint22.Wages,ASshiftsin,YYn,ADshiftedout,etc.:3.Alsolesslikelyforwagepushthatgetsusto1'QuiteplausiblethatexpectationsofpolicymattertowagesettingRulesvsDiscretion1.NonactivistsadvocatepolicyruletokeepADfromfluctuating:Example:Monetaristconstant-money-growth-rate-rule2.CredibilityofnonaccommodatingpolicyhelpsavoidwagepushandhelpspreventandunemploymentExample:1.Intheperiodfrom1965throughthe1970s,theBankofCanadahadlowcredibilityandanti-policywascostly2.Credibilityearnedby19833.Whenmoneygrowth1983,littleriseinwagesand©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.27-18ChoiceBetweenActivistandNonactivistPolicy