Bingsheng Ke中国农业经济评论华中会议发言 (2)

AgriculturalandpolicydevelopmentinChina:ChallengesandopportunitiesKEBingshengPresidentChinaAgriculturalUniversityShareofagricultureinnationaleconomy19802012GDP%3010Population%8149/67Employment%6934Export%203Import%156Foodexpenditure,urban%5736Foodexpenditure,rural%6240Greatachievements1978-2012Productiongrowth:Grain:80%Cotton:two-foldOilseeds:5-foldFruits:30-foldMeat:8-foldGrowthofFarmers’income:7%annuallyinrealterm.Dauntingchallengesaheadtobalancetheeverrisingdemandformore,betterandsaferfoodwithlessland,lesswaterandfewerfarmerhands,andincreasingcostsThisinvolvesasetofinterrelatedissues,includingquantity,quality,safety,efficiencyandsustainabilityinfoodprovision.Risingfoodtradedeficit,US$billion0204060801001202000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012ExportImportAgri-FoodexportofChina,2012Fishery30%Vegetables16%Livestock10%Fruits10%Oilseeds3%Sugar0%Others31%Agri-FoodimportinChina,2012Oilseeds34%Livestock13%Cotton11%Edibleoils11%Fishery7%Fruits3%Sugar2%Others19%SoybeanimportinChina01020304050601993199519971999200120032005200720092011ProductionImportSoybeanimportinChina60%ofworldsoybeanexportgoestoChinaOver80%ofdemandinChinaiscoveredbyimportMostimportantly:additional20%croppingareaswouldbeneededifimportofsoybeanshouldbeproduceddomesticallyCottontradeinChina0.01.02.03.04.05.01993199519971999200120032005200720092011ImportExportFoodproductioninChinaKeepincreasing,butwithslow-downgrowthrate,dueto:Decliningcroppingareascausedbyurbanizationandindustrialization.SlowerimprovementinyieldsSoaringagriculturallaborcostsdueto:Increasedrural-urbanmigration(260million),andSharpincreaseinurbanwagesGrainproductioninChina,milliontons200250300350400450500550600197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011GraincroppingareasinChina,in100millionMu14.014.515.015.516.016.517.017.518.018.51978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008Grainyield,tons/ha2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.519781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010GrowthofgrainyieldinChina,tons/hain10years0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21980s1990s2000sRicefieldinHeilongjiangProvinceSoybeanfieldinHeilongjiangProvinceWheatfieldinHenanProvinceCottonfieldinXinjiangRegionCottonharvesterinXinjiangRegionRiceFieldinSouthwestChinaRiceFieldinSouthwestChinaFarmlandinLoessPlateauGreenhousehorticultureGreenhousehorticultureGreenhousehorticultureGreenhousehorticulturePoliciestomeetthechallengesTomotivatefarmerstoproducemore:DirectpaymenttograinproducersDirectpaymenttooff-setinputpricehikesSubsidytoqualityseedsSubsidytohigh-yieldcowsSubsidyforpurchaseoffarmmachineriesToenablefarmerstoproducemore:Strictercontrolontakingfarmlandfornon-farmpurposesImprovementofirrigationandotherinfrastructureResearchandextensionOtherpublicservice:information,foodsafety,diesescontrol…MissionsofagriculturaluniversitiesAgriculturaluniversitieshaveabigparttoplay:Cultivatingtalentsforagri-foodsectors,andtrainingoffarmersAgriculturaltechnicalinnovationandextensionPresidentHuvisitingCAU,2009VicePresidentXiatCAU,2012AgriculturaluniversitysysteminChinaGenerallyoneagriculturaluniversityineachprovince;Somemergedwithotheruniversityandbecomepartofamorecomprehensiveuniversity.Inaddition,therearefournationalkeyagriculturaluniversitiesdirectlyunderMOE;CAUisoneofthem.Altogether,thereare30+independentagriculturaluniversitiesinChina.Enrollmentofnewstudentsinagriculture-relatedprograms,in100002040608010012014019971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010AveragerelativescoresofCAUfreshmen40455055606570752003200420052006200720082009201020112012RoleofagriculturaluniversitiesinresearchandextensionAllfournationalkeyuniversitiesareresearch-oriented.Otheragriculturaluniversitieshavevariedscaleofresearchactivities.Allagriculturaluniversitiesplayimportantroleinprovidingtechnicalconsultationserviceatvariouslevels:sector-wide,regional,enterprise/farm-wideThankyou!