年Q1美国食品和饮料趋势报告（PDF41页）

May2018EARLYVIEW2018Q1Food&BeverageTrends© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.2ExecutiveSummaryEdiblestrendsarebeingimpactedbyanumberoffactors,includingweather,householdfinances,inflationandanevolvingmarketlandscape.1CPGindustrygrowthwasquitelowinQ12018,withpriceincreasesdrivingdollarsalesgrowth;ediblesfaredslightlybetterthantheindustryasawhole.2Beverages(bothalcoholicandnonalcoholic)anddelicheeseweretop-performingdepartmentsinQ1.3Tripsandbasketshaveinchedup,withnationalbrandsoutperformingprivatelabel.4Economicexpectationsfortheremainderof2018arefavorable,andCPGshaveopportunitiestodrivegrowththroughpremiumizationandcustomizedmarketingprograms.5© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.31EconomicShifts2IrregularWeatherPatterns3FoodPricing4TaxReforms5ComplexandEvolvingMarketplaceTheFoodandBeverageSectorIsBeingImpactedbyaVarietyofForces© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.4EconomicMeasure20132014201520162017GDP(%Chg.)3.3%4.2%3.7%3.0%4.1%Unemployment(%,SA)7.4%6.2%5.3%4.9%4.4%ConsumerPriceInflation(%Chg.)1.5%1.6%0.1%1.3%2.1%RetailSales(%Chg.)3.8%4.1%2.3%3.0%4.6%ResidentialPermits,Total(Mil.)3.94.24.74.75.0UnemploymentHitItsLowestLevelSinceBeforetheGreatRecession;RetailSales,InflationandGDPUpECONOMICSHIFTSSource:Moody’s© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.5TheNation’sFoodSupply,ProcessingandDistributionAreBeingImpactedbyExtremeWeatherWEATHERPATTERNSSource:ACISDepartureFromNormalTemperature(°F)04/01/2017–03/31/2018DegreeVariation•Hurricanes•HeatWaves•Floods•Wildfires© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.6FoodPricesAreontheUpswing;Eggs,FruitsandVegetablesSawNoteworthyIncreasesinQ12018FOODPRICINGSource:FoodInstituteQ12017Q22017Q32017Q42017Q12018AllItems2.5%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.2%FoodatHome-1.5%-0.3%0.4%0.7%0.7%CerealandCerealProducts-1.5%-1.8%-1.5%-1.3%-0.2%Dairy0.0%0.1%0.4%-0.3%-1.2%Eggs-21.6%-13.4%-5.2%-6.7%9.8%Fats/Oils-0.9%0.5%1.5%1.9%1.1%FruitsandVegetables-3.8%1.4%1.8%2.3%3.0%Meats-3.0%2.0%0.9%1.8%1.8%NonalcoholicBeverages-0.2%0.5%0.2%0.2%-0.3%Sugar/Sweets-0.4%-0.6%0.2%0.3%1.3%QuarterlyInflationRatevs.PriorYear2017–2018© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.7ProponentsoftheTaxCutandJobsActExpectALowerCorporateTaxRatetoStimulateBusinessInvestmentandGrowthTAXREFORMSSource:PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsU.S.CorporateTaxandGrossBusinessInvestment%19607080902000101601020304050MainStatutoryCorporateTaxRate(%)CorporateTaxRevenue(%ofcorporateprofits)GrossBusinessInvestment(%ofGDP)© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.8TheTaxCutandJobsActModifiedtheTaxStructureAcrossMostIncomeSegmentsTAXREFORMSSource:=51522631TaxRatePriortoNewLawSingleFilersJointFilers10%Upto$9,325Upto$18,65015%$9,325–$37,950$$18,650-$75,90025%$37,950–$91,900$75,900-$153,10028%$91,900–$191,650$153,100-$233,35033%$191,650–$416,700$233,350-$416,70035%$416,700–$418,000$416,700-$470,70039.6%$418,000andabove$470,700andaboveNewTaxRateSingleFilersJointFilers10%Upto$9,525Upto$19,05012%$9,525–$38,700$$19,050-$77,40022%$38,700–$70,000$77,400-$140,00024%$70,000–$160,000$140,000-$320,00032%$160,000–$200,000$320,000-$400,00035%$200,000–$500,000$400,000-$1M38.5%$500,000andabove$1MandaboveCurrentTaxLawUndertheSenate“TaxCutsandJobsAct”© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.9DespiteTaxChanges,VeryFewAmericansHaveNoticedanIncreaseinTheirPaychecksTAXREFORMSChangestoEarnings2018vs.2017,TotalPopulationSource:IRIConsumerConnect™,Q120187.8%16.6%20.2%26.9%MorewithheldDon'tknowLesswithheldNochangeWealthierhouseholdsweremostlikelytonoticeanearningschange.$55K-$99K:28.2%$100K+:34.5%8.2%ofconsumersreceivedapayraiseorbonustieddirectlybacktothetaxcuts.© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.10Convenience,WellnessandTechnologyAreDrivingIndustryEvolutionEVOLVINGMARKETPLACESource:NPD;IGDRetailAnalysis;In-StoreEngagementReport;Retale•ConvenienceU.S.consumershavearenewedinterestin“freshprepared,”butnotinspendingmoretimedoingit.Consumersseekrealandnaturalproducts,evenwithsweets.Americankitchensareincreasinglyingredient-oriented,tothedetrimentofmanyready-to-eatfooditems.At-homeandfrom-homefoodpreferencesleaverestaurantsstrugglingwithflat-to-decliningtraffic,andretailersfacestalledgrowth.MealKitsMealkitadoptionbyU.S.consumersisrelativelysmall,atroughly5percentofhouseholds.Moreonlinegrocersareofferingmealkits,leadingtotheexpectationthatmealkitswillbecomemorereadilyavailableandaffordableandwilldrivesectorgrowth.RiseoftheDigitalConsumerTheU.S.onlinegrocerymarketwillreach$34.7Bby2022.Thirty-sixpercentofconsumersusemobileappswhileshopping.Sixty-sixpercentofconsumersenteracodefromreceiptorpackageasproofofpurchaseforachancetowinorgetareward/coupon.Eighty-fourpercentofmillennialssaytheyactonpushnotificationstotheirphones.© 2018InformationResourcesInc.(IRI).ConfidentialandProprietary.11LiftFromMerchandisingEffort