王立才：我国玉米淀粉工业的发展现状

1WangLichai,ViceChairmanofChinaStarchIndustryAssociation2011316·CurrentSituationandFutureTendencyofChineseCornStarchIndustry2“”“”“”3MainTopics“”a.ReviewofChineseCornStarchIndustryintheEleventhFive-YearPlan“”b.DevelopmentTrendofChineseCornStarchIndustryintheTwelfthFive-YearPlanc.ToStrengthenMacroControlforSoundDevelopmentofStarchandFeedIndustry4——CurrentSituation“”ReviewofChineseCornStarchIndustryintheEleventhFive-YearPlan·fromblindlyexpansiontomacrocontrol·Majormeasuresofmacrocontrol·ObviousEffectofmacrocontrol·2010Returntosoundhealthydevelopmentsince2010·Rapidgrowthofproduction,growthrateslows·Concentratingtocornproducingareas·Industryintegration·Rapiddevelopmentoffineandfurtherprocessing·Cornconsumption·PositiveandNegativeeffects5——CurrentSituation---fromBlindlyExpansiontoMacroControl—19568001991100—198519912005100019%—2006()700045%2005-20066——CurrentSituation---fromBlindedExpansiontoMacroControl(NegativeImpact)—Competingforrawmaterialswithfeedindustryandcurbingthedevelopmentoffeedproductionandanimalfarming—60%Wasteseenininvestmentwithoperationratesofstarchenterprisesataround60%—Irrationalcompetitioninindustryincursdifficultyinmanagement—Pressurefromenvironmentalprotectionincreases.—200612“”—2007“”—20106“”—201010“”7——CurrentSituation---MainMeasuresofMacroControl—26%Curbingexpansion,PercentageofcornconsumptionforIndustrialusecontrolledwithin26%—StrictAccessstandards;;—AdjustingProductsStructure;;;—LimitingCornUseforEthanolProductionandboifeul—OptimizingregionalLayout—AdjustingImport/ExportPolicyFlexibly2008-200915013%-5%Chinesehasevergrantsubsidyforrawmaterialsandimplementedexporttaxrebateforcornbyproductstohelpindustrialcornprocessingenterprisestogetthroughtheharddaysduringfinancialcrisisin2008.8——CurrentSituation---RemarkableEffectofMacroControl—Blindlyinvestmenthasbeenrestricted.2007-20082008-20092010250-300()—10%GDPGrowthrateslowsdownto10%,basicallythesamepaceasCPI.2008200710.1%200920092.4%()2010200910%—Environmentalawarenessrises.—Foodsafetyhasbeenhighlyconsidered.9——2010CurrentSituation---ReturntoHealthyDevelopmentin2010——Thrivingdemandforstarch201015%15.2%14.6%18.3%11.4%19.5%14.9%6.3%24.7%11.2%()——Exportasadrivingforce201036.62%49.737%——Pricegrowthofbyproductshigherthanthatofrawmaterialsandenergy——Significantincreaseofprofit8-10%5-8%——Starchindustryreturntohealthydevelopment10——CurrentSituation---OutputIncreasesRapidly101612071530168517261900CornStarchOutputIn0,000MT11——CurrentSituation---OutputIncreasesRapidly200792006200518.8%2007200626.8%20072008200710.1%200920082.4%()2010200910%13.2%“”“”5-6Increasefrom200512——CurrentSituation---MovingForwardstoCornProducingRegions1422.282.4%46.6%20.8%15.1%5.9%4.5%4.0%1.6%1.5%Cornstarchoutputtotaled14.222milMTinthreecornproducingprovincesincludingShandong,JilinandHebeiin2009,accountingfor82.4%ofoveralldomesticproduction.13——CurrentSituation---MovingForwardstoCornProducingRegions331537(300)(150)(120)210(30)(150)(60)(30)(30)(30)(30)(50)(20)(30)(30)(20)(100)(30)(60)(120)(60)(70)(60)(120)(60)(30)(70)(70)(60)(100)(60)(60)(90)(50)(30)(30)(30)(30)(20)14——CurrentSituation---Industryintegration—111764.7%75843.9%——8.2%8%6.1%5.9%4.4%3.7%3.6%3.3%35.3%15——CurrentSituation---FineandFurtherProcessingGrowsFast—2009102760%113200832.4%239200813.5%589200813.5%—201016——CurrentSituation---CornConsumingRatioRises200520062007200820092010()production139371516015230165901630017250Consumption137401433014595143431471416014Feed9450885090009000910010000Industry315039804080383041004500starch152518102295252725782850EthanolandOthers162521701785130315221650CornProductionandConsumptionIn0,000MT17——CurrentSituation---CornConsumingRatioRises2007926%200627.7%200727.9%200826.7%200927.8%201028%Govtregulatedratioofindustrialcornuseintotalconsumptionshallbewithin26%,butactisaslistedabove.“”200645.5%200756.3%200865.9%200962.9%201063.6%Ratioofcornforstarchproductioninindustrialconsumptionincreasesyearbyyear.18——CurrentSituation---PositiveandNegativeImpact—(Positiveimpact)——Improvepeople’sdiet——Helpincreasefarmers’income——Promoteindustrializationofagriculturalindustry——Stabilizecornproduction—(Negativeimpacts)——Competingforgrainswithfeedindustry——Regularprocurementthroughtheyearspursfarmers’reluctancetosell——()Drivingcornpricetomoveup——Environmentalprotectionconcerns19——FutureTendency“”DevelopmentTrendofChineseCornStarchIndustryin12thfive-yearplan—thrivingdemand—restrictiononcornconsumption—slowdownofgrowthpace—2011outlookfor201120——FutureTendency---BloomingStarchDemand“”“”“”10%—“”—————21——FutureTendency---BloomingStarchDemand()307100%167.254.5%11.83.8%32.310.5%17.75.8%62.220.2%15.85.2%20091800400—25253250(1900)—13.51755(828)—2.7377—5.265022——FutureTendency---CornSupplyInsufficientinChina“”2010157———————23——FutureTendency---CornResourcesInsufficientinChina()()31%5.6%13937(2005)3337(2000)66023.8%4.4%17250(2010)3313(2005)660()13%2.5%19500(2015)2250(2010)45010%2%19050(2015)1800(2010)360——CornProduction20103250()6000/20106913%440%2000“”“”2.5%2015192502%1905024——FutureTendency---CornResourcesInsufficientinChina