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RealCommunicationAnIntegratedCourse制作外语教学与研究出版社版权所有TextCanbadluckbeexplained?Canbadluckbeexplained?1Toastalwayslandsbuttersidedown.Italwaysrainsonbankholidays.Youneverwinthelottery,butotherpeopleyouknowseemto...Doyouevergettheimpressionthatyouwerebornunlucky?Eventhemostrationalpersoncanbeconvincedattimesthatthereisaforceouttheremakingmishapsoccurattheworstpossibletime.WeallliketobelievethatMurphy'sLawistrue(“ifitcangowrong,itwill”).Text2Partoftheexplanationforbadluckismathematical,butpartispsychological.Indeedthereisaverycloseconnectionbetweenpeople'sperceptionofbadluckandinterestingcoincidences.3Forexample,takethebeliefthat“badthingsalwayshappeninthrees”(justlikebuses...!)Thispopularnotionwouldbeunlikelytostandthescrutinyofanyscientificstudy,butitmusthavesomebasisinexperience,otherwisethephrasewouldneverhaveariseninthefirstplace.Whatmightbetherationalexplanation?Text4Thefirstquestionis“whatisbad?”5Somethingsareonlymarginallybad,forexamplethetrainarrivingfiveminuteslate.Someareextremelybad,suchasfailinganexamorbeingsacked.Sobadnessismuchbetterrepresentedasbeingonaspectrumratherthansomethingwhichisthereornotthere.Text6Aparticulareventmayonlybeamisfortunebecauseofthecircumstancesaroundit.Thetrainarrivingfiveminuteslateisaneutraleventifyouareinnohurryandreadinganinterestingnewspaperarticlewhileyouwait.Itisbadifyouarelateforanimportantmeeting.Text7Whenitcomestobadthingshappeninginthrees,whatmaybemostimportantofallisthedurationandmemorabilityofthefirstevent.Takeaburstpipewhileyouareawayonholiday,forexample.Itmaytakelessthananhourtofloodthehouse,butthisonebadeventcanremainaliveandkickingformanymonths,withthecleaningupoperationandthedebatewithyourinsurersactingasconstantremindersoftheoriginalevent.Text8Thelongerthefirstbadeventsticksinthefrontofyourmind,themoreopportunitiesyouwillhavetoexperiencetwomorebadevents.Amonthlatersomeonebumpsthebackofyourcarandaweekafterthatyouloseyourweddingring.Themindwhichisalreadyonalowfromthefirsteventwillquicklyleaptoconnectthesubsequentmisfortunesaspartoftheseries.TextItwouldn'tmatterthattherecouldbeatwo-monthtimescaleoverwhicheverythinghappened.Bythetimeyouhaverecoveredfromthewaterdamageyouareactivelylookingoutforthenextdisaster.Thetimescalehasbeenextendedaslongasisnecessarytoconfirmtheoriginalprophecy.Text9Aswithcoincidences,inbadluckthereisatendencytolookfortheexampleswhichconfirmthetheory,andignorethosewhichdon’t(becausetheyarelessinteresting).Singlebadeventshappenallthetime.Thataloneshouldbeenoughtodisprovethetheory.Badthingsalsocomeintwos.Butitismorelikelythatafriendwilltellyou“threebadthingshavehappenedtome,isn’tthattypical”than“onlytwobadthingshavehappenedtome,whichjustprovesthatthetheorydoesn’twork”.Afterall,thelatteristemptingfate!Text10Thereis,however,atleastonerationalreasonwhybadeventsmightclustertogether.Itisrelatedtoprobabilityandindependence.Unluckyeventsarenotalwaysindependentofeachother.Anybodywhoismaderedundantisboundtosuffersomedepression.Thatwilllowerthebody’sdefences,makingthepersonvulnerabletoillness,andalsomakingthemlessalertandresponsive(sotheymaybemorelikelytodropapreciousvase,forexample).TextSowhiletheprobabilityofbeingmaderedundantonanyparticulardayandtheprobabilityofbeingsickmaybothbesmall,thechanceofbothoccurringisalmostcertainlyhigherthantheproductofthetwoprobabilities.Mapreadingmisfortunes11Somuchforthegeneralincidentsofbadluckwhichcropupinlife.Let’sgetontoaspecificonethateveryonehasencountered.Text12Youareofftovisitafriendwholivesattheotherendofthecity.Youlookuptheroadinthestreetatlas,anddiscoverthatitisrightontheedgeofthepage.Thismeansthatfindingthepreciseroutebecomesachoreofflickingbackwardsandforwardsfromonepagetothenext.Eithertheroadishalfononepageandhalfontheother,orit'sspreadacrossthefoldinthemiddleofthebook.Andifit’sanordnancesurveymap,thenyourdestinationisatjustthepointwhereyoufoldedthemapover.Text13Itdoesn’tseemfair.Afterallamaponlyhasatinybitof“edge”butplentyof“middle”inwhichyourdestinationcouldbesituated.Orhasit?Infactthechanceofpickingadestinationwhichisclosetotheedgeofthemapisalothigherthanyoumightexpect.Text14Takealookatthemapinthediagram.Youwillhaveaproblemifyourdestinationisanywhereintheshadedareamarkedonthemap.Thisshadedareaisjust1cmintothepageallthewayaround.Itlooksinsignificant.However,theshadedareaaddsupto56cm2.TextThatrepresents28percentoftheareaofthewholepageofthemap,whichmeansthatanyspecificpointthatyouareseekingonthismaphasa28percentchance(that'snearlyoneinthree)ofbeinginanawkwardpositionwithin1cmoftheedgeofthepage.Andifyouregardbeingwithin2cmoftheedgeofthepageasbeingawkward,thechanceofill-fortuneclimbsto52percent.Inotherwords,youmightexpectthismisfortunetooccuronalmosteveryotherjourney.Text15Asinmostbadluckstories,youforgetaboutthenumberoftimestheroaddoesn’tlandawkwardlyandrememberthetimesitdoes,andinthiscasethechanceofabadresultissohighthatbeforelongyouareboundtobecursingyourmisfortune,orthemap’sprinter,orboth.This,incidentally,iswhymanymodernroadmapsallowsignificantoverlapsbetweenadjacentmappages.Inagoodroadatlas,atleast3