中国崛起_美国的基本评估及对华政策论争

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:,???,,,,,;;,(:100081)D81A1006-9550(2002)02-0020-06,,(JohnKingFairbank),,,[]:,,2000,71,,,,,19,,,(thin)(thick),,,:,,(,)[:2001-08-31][:2001-12-06][:]02,,197176,18,:,,1978,,,90,,:,,(GDP),1978GDP500,GDP5000,1995GDP2,20004,,,25,,26%,21%22%,2025,,,,,2010?,GDP,1,9%,20,;6%,,30GDP1,16,1995GDP2.5,2025,,2005,20057%,200620159%,20152020,10(2000),,6700,?(PeerCompeti2tor)?,,2015:,,,,,,,,1999,:,1220022,1996528ZalamayM.Khalizad,AbramN.Shulsky,DanielL.Byman,etc.,TheUnitedStatesandaRisingChina:StrategicandMilitaryImplica2tions,RANDCorporation,1999,p.14.EnteringtheDragon,TheEconomist,March10,2001.DwightH.Perkins,HowChinasEconomicTransformationShapesItsFuture,EzraF.Vogel,LivingWithChina,U.S.-ChinaRelationsintheTwenty-firstCentury,1997,pp.144145.[]H.:,[],20015211978GDP,3624,,2001627DwightH.Perkins,HowChinasEconomicTransformationShapesItsFuture,EzraF.Vogel,LivingWithChina:U.S.-ChinaRelationsintheTwenty-firstCentury,W.W.Norton&CompanyLtd.,1997,p.143.,,,1982,7778,20,,,10,,,,1978GDP2000,22000,2000110,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,211520,,19,20,,,,lu,22:luSamuelP.Huntington,TheCrashofCivilizations,ForeignAf2fairs,No.3,1993,p.22.ZalamayM.Khalizad,AbramN.Shulsky,DanielL.Byman,etc.,TheUnitedStatesandaRisingChina:StrategicandMilitaryImplica2tions,RANDCorporation,1999,pp.4748.BushsForeignPolicy,TheNewYorkTimes,November21,1999.1999,1999817:2001215TheUnitedStatesandaRisingChina:StrategicandMilitaryImplications,RANDCorporation,1999,p.12.200059:-,2000510TheUnitedStatesandaRisingChina:StrategicandMilitaryImplications,RANDCorporation,1999,p.12.[]::,[],2000[]:?,[],2000522,,;,,,,(),();,,(),,,,,1999:,,,,,(),,,,,12,,,,,,,,,(),1993,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,3220022W.BowmanCutter,FoanandSperoandLauraDAndereaTyson,NewWorld,NewDeal:ADemocraticApproachtoGlobalization,ForeignAffairs,March/April,2000,p.88.EzraF.Vogel,LivingwithChina,U.S.-ChinaRelationsintheTwenty-firstCentury,1997,Norton&CompanyLtd.,p.160.::19932000,,2001,22[]:,[],20001116StrategicAssessment1999:PriorityforaTurbulentWorld,KeyFindings,Pxiiv.,InstituteforNationalStrategicStudiesandNation2alDefenseUniversity,1999.1999919(),,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,()+,,,,;,,,;,,,,,+:;,:,,+,;,+;,,+,+,,,,1996,,,,,,,+,42::,,20011,18ZalamayM.Khalizad,AbramN.Shulsky,DanielL.Byman,etc.,TheUnitedStatesandaRisingChina:StrategicandMilitaryImplica2tions,RANDCorporation,1999,p.71.,[]2001423BillGertz,TheChinaThreat:HowthePeoplesRepublicTar2getsAmerica,RegneryPublishing,Inc.,2000,pp.200203.200141,423,,,,,,,,,,,,,,911,(1812),,911,,APEC,,,,,,911,,,,,,,,,,911,,,,;,,,,[:2001-09-25][:2001-11-20][:]5220022[]:,,200178DavidM.Lampton,SmallMercies:ChinaandAmericaafter9/11,TheNationalInterest,Winter2001/2002,pp.106107.2001511,:,[],20014JonathanClarke,U.S.NeedstoLearnThatChinaPolicyIsNotaTwo-bitAffair,HeraldInternationalTribune,May11,2001.

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