探索新的范型概念规划的理论与方法

1002-1329(2001)03-0038-15:,()(),,,,,,,,()(),,;;;ONTHETHEORETICALFOUNDA2TIONANDMETHODOLOGYOFCONCEPTPLANNINGZHAOYanjingABSTRACT:Thispapertriestorestatethenormalprocessoftheurbangrowthinordertofindoutapracticalstudyprogramthroughclassicalspatialtheoryinparticularthepresumeofspeedanddirec2tion.KEYWORDS:spatialanalyses;conceptplanning;Guangzhou;planningmethodologyTU984111A1,,,,,,,,(),(),,,,?,20,,,,,(90),()(),,:,:()(),,FOCUSREPORT200125338©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2,,,,,,(E.W.Burgess,1933)(H.Hoyt,1934)(E.L.Ullman,1945);(),(LoschianLandscape,1940)(W.Christaller,1933),(),,()(),(),,(),,,1(),,(1):(Spillover2reverberation),(1)+,()(2),();(LeapfrogW.C.Wheaton1982),(1)(,,)(2)(,),(),,:(),,(spillover),,(reverberation)(B.J.Garner,1966;WilliamAlonso,1964)(+),,,(),,,(),,(),(),,(W.C.Wheaton1982),()(),,,,(DownCITYPLANNINGREVIEWVol125No13Mar12001392001253©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.town),,(),,()(),(,),,,(),,(GDP)()(/),(),??,,,??,()3%,10%,25,,(),(),(4%,20),,??,,(falsifica2tionism),:,(Popper1933);,(Lacatos1970):;;;,,,,,,,(,1982)(ParadigmKuhn1962),(),();(),,,,,,,,(),(,),(Ros2tow,WaltWhitman1960)5%10%(Ros2tow,WaltWhitman1963)3%,,:,,(),3%,,,,,,,,,,FOCUSREPORT200125340©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,:,,(2001),,,,:,:,;3(hardcore),10%25(auxiliaryhypothesis),(protectivebelt),(Lacatos,Imre1970):,(negativeheuristic),,,,,,(),(),,(),,1980229,1999337,182,500(2000),412%(700,),3%112,198057155,19992056,21%,(10%),,,:,,,,,,,,:??,(),,,,(19962010)2000567,2010670,1168%(1997);2000350,120,470,2010413,150,563,118%,2040,1020,,,2000280(19792000),1%,,,,,19803km2,3,2,1999405,143615132715km2,(),,;(),,,(CITYPLANNINGREVIEWVol125No13Mar12001412001253©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.),,(),(),,(),,(1)(2),19991216,3011%,318,,201061%,202075%(1996),,10%,201050%202065%lv,20101318201015,6199175,102012,1lw,,,20101000,lx(1996),,,,,,6689ly19993165116(2000)2010,30001/6,20101000(),,,,1/3,,15%70GDP6%,35%,,18%,50%2010GDP2010lz,GDPGDP,1000,GDP2000,201010001300,,,,,,,:,,,,4,,:???()?()?,,1:,(scalarquantity),,,,FOCUSREPORT200125342©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,(),(),,(),,,,,,,,,:,,(),,,(scalarquantity),l{,,(),:(1),,(),/(),()(,,,),,(),(,,);(2)()(),(1998)(,)(),,,,(),,,(),,,l|,(/),,,,,,,,(topologystructure),,,(),,:,,,,:,()(),,,(2)2:,,?,,,,:,CITYPLANNINGREVIEWVol125No13Mar12001432001253©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,2:();,,(),,,,,,,(),:,(,),,()(D.CapozzaR.W.Helsley1989),(),,(2000)(,,),,,//,,,,3:,??,80(1987):,,,,,(),,,(,),60km,(1999),,,,,,,(D.CapozzaR.W.Helsley1989,,,),,(),,20,(3060km),10FOCUSREPORT200125344©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.150200,204005004:,(),(1998,2000),,,(2000),,(),(2),,,,,,,,,:,,,,(),3,,,,(),,,(),,,,,(everyonegoestoeverywhere),,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,CITYPLANNINGREVIEWVol125No13Mar12001452001253©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,(3)(),:()()5(),,,,,,1:,(),,,,,,,,,(2001),,,?,,(1984,1989,1998),,(),,,,,(),,,,,,(),90,,,(2001),,,,,,,,()2:,:(1)(1980)(1992)(),;(2),;(3)1979,300,19921,6,500020,;1980GDP451718,197911961998GDP6767171999GDP2056174;,,FOCUSREPORT200125346©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:199825,198710,11515,500(1996)10,1990,3000,18001/10(2000,2000),,,3:,,,,,,,,,(trust),(cred2it),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),(),,,,(,),,(),,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,101/10,,,,,,,,,,,,W.C.Wheaton1982(perfectforesight),,,Wheatson,,,CITYPLANNINGREVIEWVol125No13Mar12001472001253©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,(),,,(),,,,4:,,,,,,(),,,,TOD(Transit2OrientedDe2velopment),,,,SOD(Service2OrientedDevel2opment),,,(),(),,(),,,(TODSOD)l~,,,,,,6,,,,1:,,150,50,315%(100415%!),100!mu,90200250(1981,1998),:,,(2001),300400mv,2530mw,2000(2030),2:,1020,(218%),,,,,,:(1),,1020,FOCUSREPORT200125348©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,(2),(,,),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(60km)mx,,,,3:,278,10km,1997625km2,17,200km23258,2519%,1990,,:,,,,,,(),,,19973,,,,,,,,(2000),7,,,,,,my,,,,,,mz,,,,(,),,,,,,,;;;,,,,:,,,CITYPLANNINGREVIEWVol125No13Mar12001492001253©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,m{m|,,,,,,,,,,,,!,,:,,,1(2000)..2.,19821998.3(1950)..4(1984)..,1984(1).5(1998)..,1998(2).6(1996).:.,1998.7,(1999)...8(1989)..9,(1991)..,1991(1)(2)(3).10(1999).19952010.11(2000)..,2000(2).12(1999)..,2000.13(2000)..,2000(2).14(2000).:.,2000(1).15(1998)..,1998.16,,(2000)..,2000/4/14.17(2000)..,2000-04-19;18..,1997.19,..,1999.X.YANGandY.K.NGSpecializationandEconomicOrganization.1993ContributiontoEconomicAnalysisNorth2Holland.20,(2000)...21(2000).:.2000,1989(5).22(1999)..,1999.23,.,.24(1984)..,1984.25(1987)..,1987(5).26(2000a)...(2000b).:.,2000(6).27(2001)..,2001(1).28ChristallerW(1933).,..:,1998.29ThunenJHVon(1826).FOCUSREPORT200125350©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved...:,1997.30LoschA(1940)...:,1995.31Rostow,WaltWhitman1960.TheStagesofE