公司金融课件chap008

McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2008byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8StockValuation8-1KeyConceptsandSkillsUnderstandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthBeabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowcorporatedirectorsareelectedUnderstandhowstockmarketsworkUnderstandhowstockpricesarequoted8-2ChapterOutlineCommonStockValuationSomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStocksTheStockMarkets8-3CashFlowsforStockholdersIfyoubuyashareofstock,youcanreceivecashintwowaysThecompanypaysdividendsYousellyourshares,eithertoanotherinvestorinthemarketorbacktothecompanyAswithbonds,thepriceofthestockisthepresentvalueoftheseexpectedcashflows8-4One-PeriodExampleSupposeyouarethinkingofpurchasingthestockofMooreOil,Inc.andyouexpectittopaya$2dividendinoneyearandyoubelievethatyoucansellthestockfor$14atthattime.Ifyourequireareturnof20%oninvestmentsofthisrisk,whatisthemaximumyouwouldbewillingtopay?ComputethePVoftheexpectedcashflowsPrice=(14+2)/(1.2)=$13.33OrFV=16;I/Y=20;N=1;CPTPV=-13.338-5Two-PeriodExampleNowwhatifyoudecidetoholdthestockfortwoyears?Inadditiontothedividendinoneyear,youexpectadividendof$2.10intwoyearsandastockpriceof$14.70attheendofyear2.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/(1.2)+(2.10+14.70)/(1.2)2=13.338-6Three-PeriodExampleFinally,whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockforthreeyears?Inadditiontothedividendsattheendofyears1and2,youexpecttoreceiveadividendof$2.205attheendofyear3andthestockpriceisexpectedtobe$15.435.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/1.2+2.10/(1.2)2+(2.205+15.435)/(1.2)3=13.338-7DevelopingTheModelYoucouldcontinuetopushbacktheyearinwhichyouwillsellthestockYouwouldfindthatthepriceofthestockisreallyjustthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividendsSo,howcanweestimateallfuturedividendpayments?8-8EstimatingDividends:SpecialCasesConstantdividendThefirmwillpayaconstantdividendforeverThisislikepreferredstockThepriceiscomputedusingtheperpetuityformulaConstantdividendgrowthThefirmwillincreasethedividendbyaconstantpercenteveryperiodSupernormalgrowthDividendgrowthisnotconsistentinitially,butsettlesdowntoconstantgrowtheventually8-9ZeroGrowthIfdividendsareexpectedatregularintervalsforever,thenthisisaperpetuityandthepresentvalueofexpectedfuturedividendscanbefoundusingtheperpetuityformulaP0=D/RSupposestockisexpectedtopaya$0.50dividendeveryquarterandtherequiredreturnis10%withquarterlycompounding.Whatistheprice?P0=.50/(.1/4)=$208-10DividendGrowthModelDividendsareexpectedtogrowataconstantpercentperperiod.P0=D1/(1+R)+D2/(1+R)2+D3/(1+R)3+…P0=D0(1+g)/(1+R)+D0(1+g)2/(1+R)2+D0(1+g)3/(1+R)3+…Withalittlealgebraandsomeserieswork,thisreducesto:g-RDg-Rg)1(DP1008-11DGM–Example1SupposeBigD,Inc.justpaidadividendof$.50.Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2%peryear.Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15%onassetsofthisrisk,howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor?P0=.50(1+.02)/(.15-.02)=$3.928-12DGM–Example2SupposeTBPirates,Inc.isexpectedtopaya$2dividendinoneyear.Ifthedividendisexpectedtogrowat5%peryearandtherequiredreturnis20%,whatistheprice?P0=2/(.2-.05)=$13.33Whyisn’tthe$2inthenumeratormultipliedby(1.05)inthisexample?8-13StockPriceSensitivitytoDividendGrowth,g05010015020025000.050.10.150.2GrowthRateStockPriceD1=$2;R=20%8-14StockPriceSensitivitytoRequiredReturn,R05010015020025000.050.10.150.20.250.3GrowthRateStockPriceD1=$2;g=5%8-15Example8.3GordonGrowthCompany-IGordonGrowthCompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof$4nextperiodanddividendsareexpectedtogrowat6%peryear.Therequiredreturnis16%.Whatisthecurrentprice?P0=4/(.16-.06)=$40Rememberthatwealreadyhavethedividendexpectednextyear,sowedon’tmultiplythedividendby1+g8-16Example8.3–GordonGrowthCompany-IIWhatisthepriceexpectedtobeinyear4?P4=D4(1+g)/(R–g)=D5/(R–g)P4=4(1+.06)4/(.16-.06)=50.50Whatistheimpliedreturngiventhechangeinpriceduringthefouryearperiod?50.50=40(1+return)4;return=6%PV=-40;FV=50.50;N=4;CPTI/Y=6%Thepricegrowsatthesamerateasthedividends8-17NonconstantGrowthProblemStatementSupposeafirmisexpectedtoincreasedividendsby20%inoneyearandby15%intwoyears.Afterthatdividendswillincreaseatarateof5%peryearindefinitely.Ifthelastdividendwas$1andtherequiredreturnis20%,whatisthepriceofthestock?RememberthatwehavetofindthePVofallexpectedfuturedividends.8-18NonconstantGrowth–ExampleSolutionComputethedividendsuntilgrowthlevelsoffD1=1(1.2)=$1.20D2=1.20(1.15)=$1.38D3=1.38(1.05)=$1.449FindtheexpectedfuturepriceP2=D3/(R–g)=1.449/(.2-.05)=9.66FindthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsP0=1.20/(1.2)+(1.38+9.66)/(1.2)2=8.678-19QuickQuiz–PartIWhatisthevalueofastockthatisexpectedtopayaconstantdividendof$2peryeariftherequiredreturnis15%?Whatifthecompanystartsincreasingdividendsby3%peryear,beginningwiththenextdividend?Therequiredreturnstaysat15%.8-20UsingtheDGMtoFindRStartwiththeDGM:gPDgPg)1(DRRforsolveandrearrangeg-RDg-Rg)1(DP01001008-21FindingtheRequiredReturn-ExampleSupposeafirm’sstockissellingfor$10.50.Theyjustpaida$1dividendanddividendsareexpectedtogrowat5%peryear.Whatistherequiredreturn?R=[1(1.05)/10.50]+.05=15%Wh