美苏争霸-核威慑与超级军备竞赛 nuclear-deterrence-and-the-superpo

NuclearDeterrenceandtheSuperpowerArmsRaceWarandGlobalConflictintheContemporaryEraThenuclearpeace?Massivenucleararsenals:70,000nukesbylate1980sEndofcivilisationw/overonebilliondeadNonuclearusesince1945KeythemesExplainingthebuild-upCivil-militarydifferencesNuclearstrategyReactiontothebombMixtureof“aweandapprehension.”HiroshimaandNagasakiblownoffthemapkillingupto140,000PresscensorshipofdestructionPromptsurrenderofJapanHiroshima:clinicaldestructionHiroshima:clinicaldestructionHiroshima:thehiddensufferingReactiontothebombMixtureof“aweandapprehension.”HiroshimaandNagasakiblownoffthemapkillingupto140,000PresscensorshipofdestructionPromptsurrenderofJapanRacefromthestartUSatomicbomb:1945SovietA-bomb:1949UShydrogenbomb:1952SovietH-bomb:1955Miketest10megaton=500HiroshimasCloud:30x27milesCrater:milewideand200ftdeepEndof“DuckandCover”SuperpowernucleararsenalsMassivesizeComplexityOverkillExplainingthearmsbuild-upExternal:armsraceInternal:domesticpoliticsArmsracingExplains‘why’butnot‘how’Tit-for-tatdynamicsOriginsofSovietprogrammeFailureof1946BaruchPlanLimitations?DomesticpoliticsBureaucraticinterests,electionpolitics,andtheMICOriginsoftheUSbuild-upUnderminingalternativesWindowsofvulnerabilityCivilianperspectivesSpecialweaponsoflastresortNucleartaboo:publicopinionandpersonalconvictionTrumanandAECEisenhowerandKoreaLBJandVietnamCanwarbelefttothegenerals?Mr.AtomBombMilitaryperspectivesWWIIbombingcampaigns&SACEmergencyWarPlan1-49“smokingradiatingruinattheendoftwohours.”CircumventingciviliancontrolNuclearnuttersPeacethroughstrengthGoldenageofnuclearstrategyMADvnuclearwar-fightingCannuclearwarbefought?Howeasyisdeterrence?Objective:denialorpunishment?(GrayvHoward)CubanMissileCrisisUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilCMC:SovietmotivesDeterUSinvasionRedressstrategicimbalanceCounterTurkeydeploymentEXCOMMCMC:USoptionsNavalquarantineAirstrikeInvasionPublicalarmEnforcingtheblockadeClashesintheCaribbeanShootingdownUSspy-planeCrisisresolutionTrollopePloySecrettradeBackchannelCreditforKennedy?NecessityforcrisisFirmresolveColdWarrecordThreatofnuclearwarDeliberatewar-Sovietfears-JFKmeasuresAccidentalwar-“Fallingleaves”EWS-SACprovocationTheDeterrenceParadigmCentralvextendeddeterrenceImmediatevgeneraldeterrenceLongevity-robustw/outreckless-bestofabadjob-reflectedinstitutionalinertiaUSnuclearstrategyDeclaratorypolicy(MADvNWF)Employmentpolicy(morechoice)Warplan(SIOP)NSTDB1960:4,1001974:25,0001980:40,0001982:50,000Thenuclearpeace:aclosecallImperative:sufficientdamagetotargetbaseUSearlywarningsystemfailures:1962,1968,1973,1979,1980LOW:pre-delegatinglaunchauthority