比较性假设检验方法(比较新旧药物的疗效)

本科生毕业论文毕业论文题目比较性假设检验方法（比较新旧药物的疗效）学生姓名所在学院专业及班级信息与计算科学信科班指导教师完成日期年月日扬州大学本科生毕业论文2比较性假设检验方法（比较新旧药物的疗效）【摘要】近年来等效性试验在我国新药临床试验中逐渐被应用，等效性评价的统计学研究也逐渐展开。等效性是指新药的疗效与标准有效药疗效相等，严格地说即，新药的疗效既不差于其标准有效药，也不比标准有效药好。等效性试验主要应用于以下两种情况：①当以安慰剂作为对照的随机双盲试验违背伦理或者不被允许时，试验设计者选择标准有效药作为对照，只要证明新药疗效等效于标准有效药疗效便可。②新药的疗效与标准有效药的疗效相当或稍微有所下降（临床上可以接受的范围），然而它在其他方面有标准有效药无法比拟的优势，如：毒性低、副作用少、价格低廉、服用方便等。这些可以运用负二项分布进行比较.【关键词】假设检验方法贝叶斯方法新药临床试验选择标准负二项分布【Abstract】Inrecentyearsthebioequivalencetestinourcountryinclinicaltrialsofnewdrugsareused,astatisticalstudyofbioequivalenceevaluationalsograduallyexpand.Equivalence扬州大学本科生毕业论文3referstodrugefficacyandthestandardofeffectivedrugefficacyequaltothat,strictlyspeaking,drugefficacyisnotworsethanthestandardeffectivemedicine,ratherthanstandardeffectivegoodmedicine.Equivalencetestingaremainlyusedinthefollowingtwosituations:whentakingplaceboasrandomizedcontrolleddouble-blindtrialviolatedethicalornotallowed,testdesignerstoselectthestandardeffectivemedicineascontrol,aslongasproofoftheefficacyofnewmedicinesisequivalenttothestandardofeffectivecurativeeffectcanbe.Clinicalefficacyofthedrugandthestandardofeffectivedrugsareequaltoorslightlydecreased(clinicallyacceptablerange),butinotherrespectsthestandardeffectivemedicineincomparableadvantages,suchas:lowtoxicity,lesssideeffect,lowprice,convenientuseetc..Thesecanbecomparedwiththenegativebinomialdistribution.【Keywords】HypothesistestingmethodBiasmethodClinicaltrialsofnewdrugschoicecriterionnegativebinomialdistribution扬州大学本科生毕业论文4目录1.绪论......................................................................................................51.1负二项分布的两个基本模型......................................................................................51.2负二项分布的特征函数..............................................................................................61.3负二项分布有再生性..................................................................................................61.4本文的主要工作..........................................................................................................82.参数估计.....................................................................................................92.1参数估计的定义..........................................................................................................92.2参数估计的类型..........................................................................................................92.2.1点估计...................................................................................................................................92.2.2区间估计............................................................................................................................102.3估计量的评选标准....................................................................................................102.3.1无偏性................................................................................................................................102.3.2有效性................................................................................................................................102.3.3一致性................................................................................................................................113极大似然估计...........................................................................................113.1极大似然估计的基本思想........................................................................................113.2极大似然估计............................................................................................................113.3矩估计........................................................................................................................123.4区间估计....................................................................................................................133.5一致最小方差无偏估计............................................................................................154贝叶斯估计..............................................................................................174.1贝叶斯估计的基本思想..........................................................................................174.2贝叶斯估计的定义..................................................................................................184.3贝叶斯估计的求解过程..........................................................................................184.4贝叶斯估计的实践应用..........................................................................................195极大似然估计与贝叶斯估计的比较与分析...........................................205.1极大似然估计.............................................................................................................205.2贝叶斯估计.................................................................................................................216.负二项分布的应用.................................................................................226.1负二项分布在新旧药物疗效研究中的应用.............................................................226.1.1负二项分布即-Poisson分布.........................................................................................226.1.2药物作用实例分析及讨论...