康奈尔酒店经营分析

CHRTOOLSFORTHEHOSPITALITYINDUSTRY,NO.4TheCenterforHospitalityResearchATCORNELLUNIVERSITYbyJanA.deRoos,Ph.D.HVSInternationalProfessorofHotelFinanceandRealEstateSchoolofHotelAdministrationatCornellUniversityandStephenRushmore,CRE,MAI,CHAFounderandPresidentHVSInternationalHospitalityValuationSoftware2ndeditionOperatingandUseGuideVersion2.5TheCenterforHospitalityResearch.orgHOSPITALITYVALUATIONSOFTWARECopyright2004ByHospitalityValuationSoftware,Inc.Thisuseguideisprovided“asis”withoutwarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressorimplied,respectingthecontentsofthisguide,includingbutnotlimitedtoimpliedwarrantiesfortheguide’squality,performance,merchantability,orfitnessforanyparticularpurpose.HotelValuationSoftware,Inc.shallnotbeliabletothepurchaseroranyotherpersonorentitywithrespecttoanyliability,loss,ordamagecausedorallegedtobecauseddirectlyorindirectlybythisguide.Asafreelydownloadabletool,theauthors,HotelValuationSoftware,Inc.,theCenterforHospitalityResearchandtheSchoolofHotelAdministrationwillnotprovideanytypeofsoftwaresupportaspartofthedistributionofthesoftwareandtheuseguide.HOSPITALITYVALUATIONSOFTWAREiTableofContentsCopyrightandSupportNoticeInsideFrontCoverTableofContentsiIntroductiontotheHospitalityValuationSoftware1RoomNightAnalysis1FixedandVariableIncomeandExpenseForecastingModel2HotelCapitalizationSoftware2AuthoritativeText2InstructionManual2ImportantTechnicalInformation3TheSoftwareisNotSupported3TrademarkAcknowledgements4Acknowledgements4AbouttheAuthors5CaseStudyOverview6TheProcessofPerformingaHotelMarketStudyandValuation8MarketStudy9RoomNightDefined9MarketStudyProcedure9Built-UpApproachBasedonAnalysisofLodgingActivity10UseofthePrimarySheetoftheRNAProgram15ProperDataEntryforanExistingSubjectHotel16UseoftheSecondarySheetoftheRNAProgram17UseoftheDemand-BaseYearSheetoftheRNAProgram19FairShareandMarketPenetrationDefined20QuantifyingLatentDemand21UnaccommodatedDemandDefined21HOSPITALITYVALUATIONSOFTWAREiiMarketStudy,continuedInducedDemandDefined21UseoftheDemandInputsSheet25GrowthRatesofAccommodatedandUnaccommodatedDemand25TheDemandCalcsSheet,UnadjustedforUnaccommodatable27DemandTotalGuestroomSupply28TotalRoomNightsAvailable28AccommodatableLatentDemand28TotalUsableLatentDemand29UseoftheSupplyAddnSheet29LongTermSupplyGrowth31ProperDataEntryforaProposedHotel31AllocatingUnaccommodatableDemand33PenetrationCalculations35MarketRationale38UseoftheMkt.PenSheetoftheRNAProgram43FairShareCalculations47MarketShareAdjustersandMarketSharePercentages47RoomNightsCaptured47PercentageofOccupancy47FairShareSheet48MarketShareAdjusters49MarketSharePercentages50RoomNightsCaptured51TotalRoomNightsCaptured52OccupancyCalculations53UseoftheFinalOutputSheet54PrintingfromtheRNAProgram55HOSPITALITYVALUATIONSOFTWAREiiiForecastofRevenueandExpense58RoomsRevenue58FixedandVariableComponentApproachtoForecasting59FixedandVariableTheory59FixedandVariableImplementation60FixedandVariableIncomeandExpenseForecastingModel67UseoftheInputsSheet68ProjectInformationandBaseYearRoomInputs68RevenueandExpenseInputs69ImportantNote70FixedandVariableComponentInputs71EnteringInflationEstimates72OccupancyandAverageRateInputs73OutputSheetformtheFIXVARProgram74PrintingintheFIXVARProgram76ModifyingtheFormulasintheOutputSheet77Valuation79IncomeCapitalizationApproach79HotelCapitalizationSoftwareProgram(HCS)83TheInputSheetoftheHCSProgram84TheCalcsSheetoftheHCSProgram87TheOutputSheetoftheHCSProgram87PrintingintheHCSProgram90Conclusion91SoftwareLicenseAgreement92IntroductiontotheHospitalityValuationSoftwareHOSPITALITYVALUATIONSOFTWARE1IntroductiontotheHospitalityValuationSoftwareTheHospitalityValuationSoftwareremainstheonlynon-proprietarycomputersoftwaredesignedspecificallytoassistinthepreparationofmarketstudies,forecastsofincomeandexpense,andvaluationsforlodgingproperty.Thesoftwareprovidesanaccurate,consistent,andcost-effectivewayforappraisersandconsultantstoimplementcomputer-basedforecastsandvaluations.Usingestablishedmethodology,theHospitalityValuationSoftwareisasophisticatedtoolforlodgingprofessionals.ThetoolconsistsofthreeseparatesoftwareprogramswrittenasMicrosoftExcelfilesandasoftwaremanualwrittenasanAdobePDFfile.TheyrequireanIBM-PCcompatiblepersonalcomputercapableofrunningMicrosoftWindows95andMicrosoftOffice97(orlaterversionsoftheoperatingsystemandofficesuite)andAdobeAcrobatReaderorAdobeAcrobat.Alloutputisformattedforastandardlaserprinterusing8½by11-inchpaper.Theprogramsandtheircontentsareoutlinedbelow.TheRoomNightAnalysisprogramperformsseveralfunctions:•Enablestheappraisertoevaluatethevariouscompetitivefactorssuchasoccupancy,averageroomrate,andmarketsegmentationofallhotelsinalocalmarket.•Calculatesthearea-wideoccupancyandaverageroomrate,aswellasthecompetitivemarketmix.•Produceaforecastofoccupancyforeachexistinghotelorproposedhotelinalocalmarket.Theprogramincorporatessuchfactorsascompetitiveoccupancies,marketsegmentation,unaccommodateddemand,latentdemand,growthofdemand,andtherelativecompetitivenessofeachpropertyinthelocalmarket.Theprogramoutputisaten-yearprojectionofoccupan