ch13Exchange-Rate Determination(国际经济学-(By Robert J

Copyright©2004,South-WesternCollegePublishingInternationalEconomicsByRobertJ.Carbaugh9thEditionChapter13:Exchange-RateDeterminationCarbaugh,Chap.132ExchangeratesFactorsinfluencingexchangeratesMarketfundamentalsBilateraltradebalancesRealincomeRealinterestratesInflationratesConsumerpreferencesfordomesticorforeignproductsProductivitychangesaffectingproductioncostsProfitabilityandriskinessofinvestmentsCarbaugh,Chap.133ExchangeratesFactorsinfluencingexchangeratesMarketfundamentals(cont’d)ProductavailabilityMonetarypolicyandfiscalpolicyGovernmenttradepolicyMarketexpectationsNewsaboutfuturemarketfundamentalsSpeculativeopinionaboutfutureexchangeratesCarbaugh,Chap.134ExchangeratesWhenarethesefactorsimportant?Shortrun(days)Dominatedbyfinancialtransfersrespondingto:DifferencesinrealinterestratesShiftingexpectationsoffutureexchangeratesMediumrun(months)PrimarilyinfluencedbyeconomiccyclesCarbaugh,Chap.135ExchangeratesWhenarethesefactorsimportant?Longrun(years)Dominatedbymovementsofgoods,services,investment,whichareinfluencedby:InflationratesInvestmentprofitabilityConsumertastesRealincomeProductivityTradepolicyHowthesefactorsinteracttoaffectexchangeratesdependsontherelativeimportanceoftradeandfinancialrelationsbetweenthecountriesCarbaugh,Chap.136ExchangeratecomponentsExchangeratesCarbaugh,Chap.137FactorsinfluencingexchangeratesRealincomedifferentialsAcountrywithfastereconomicgrowththantherestoftheworldwillhaveadepreciatingcurrency(otherthingsbeingequal)Importsrisefasterthanexports,sodemandforforeigncurrencyrisesfasterthanitssupplyRealincomechangescanalsoreflectotherprocesses,whichmightleadtorisingexportsCarbaugh,Chap.138ImpactofrealincomedifferentialsFactorsinfluencingexchangeratesCarbaugh,Chap.139FactorsinfluencingexchangeratesRealinterestratesShorttermrealinterestratedifferencesinfluenceinternationalcapitalmovementsRealinterestrateisnominalminusinflationLowshorttermratesleadtolessdemandforthecurrencyanddepreciationHighratesleadtogreaterdemandforthecurrencyandappreciationCarbaugh,Chap.1310ImpactofinterestratedifferentialsFactorsinfluencingexchangeratesCarbaugh,Chap.1311FactorsinfluencingexchangeratesPurchasingpowerparityLawofoneprice:Intheory,agoodshouldcostthesameinallcountries(asidefromtariffsortransportationcosts)Asaresult,exchangeratesshouldendupmakingpricesequalacrosscountriesBythistheory,iftwocountrieshavedifferentinflationrates,exchangerateswillmoveintheoppositedirectiontokeeppricesthesameThetheorymaybemoreusefulforpredictinglong-termtrendsthanshort-runfluctuationsCarbaugh,Chap.1312ImpactofinflationratedifferentialsFactorsinfluencingexchangeratesCarbaugh,Chap.1313FactorsinfluencingexchangeratesMarketexpectationsAswithstockmarkets,foreignexchangemarketsreactquicklytonewsorevenrumorsthatpointtofuturechangesaffectingratesFutureexpectationscanbeself-fulfilling;speculativebubblescanstartwithoutanyrealinformationbutcanbecomeselfsustaining-forawhileCarbaugh,Chap.1314AlternativeapproachestoexchangeratesMonetaryapproachFocusonexchangeratesastheresultofsupplyanddemandformoneyathomeandabroadDemanddependsonrealincome,prices,interestratesSupplyiscontrolledbycentralbanksExchangeratesseenasreturningdomesticmoneysupplytoequilibriumafterachangeCarbaugh,Chap.1315AlternativeapproachestoexchangeratesAsset-marketsapproachInvestors(firmsandindividuals)balancetheirportfoliosamongdomesticmoney,stocksandbondsandforeignstocksandbondsShortrunexchangeratechangesarecausedbyshiftsinthekindandlocationoffinancialassetsinvestorswanttoholdInvestorsshiftbetweenassetsbasedonmarketexpectationsforexpectedreturnsCarbaugh,Chap.1316Short,longrunequilibrium:overshootingExchangeratemarketsCarbaugh,Chap.1317ExchangeratemarketsForecastingexchangeratesJudgmentalforecastsSubjectiveforecastsbasedoneconomic,politicalandotherdataforacountryTechnicalanalysisUseshistoricalexchangeratetrendstoprojectshort-runfuturemovementsFundamentalanalysisIncludesmacroeconomicandpolicyinformationinapredictivemodelCarbaugh,Chap.1318Equilibriuminasset-marketsapproachAlternativeapproachestoexchangeratesCarbaugh,Chap.1319Asset-marketsapproach:shiftindemandAlternativeapproachestoexchangeratesCarbaugh,Chap.1320Asset-marketsapproach:shiftinsupplyAlternativeapproachestoexchangerates