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©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(,410075):,,,,MannKendall,100;HoltWinters,matlab50,0.24/10a:;MannKendall;HoltWinters:P467,,,;,,,,,,,,(1,2),,,,1MannKendall1.1,100(1)11900200019001905191019151920192519301935194019451950-1.2-1.1-1.2-0.800.40.10.700.30.119551960196519701975198019851990199520000-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.420.30.60.71.2©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:Sk=ki=1ri(k=2,3,n)ri=+1,ifxixj0,otherwise(j=1,2,3,i),:UFk=Sk-E(Sk)Var(Sk)(k=1,2,3n)UFk=0,E(Sk),Var(Sk),x1,x2,xn,,:E(Sk)=n(n+1)4Var(Sk)=n(n-1)(2n+5)72UF1,Xx1,x2,,xn,,UFR/2,Xxn,xn-1,x1,UBk,k=n,n-1,,1UB1=0,,,1.3matlab6.5,MannKendall4Mann-Kendall,C14MannKendallC21.96(=0.05),C1+1.96-1.96,,,,4,100,,2HoltWinters2.1,,spss,,2,52LagAutocorrelationStd.Error(a)Box-LjungStatisticValuedfSig.(b)10.6370.2039.78610.00220.390.19813.65320.00130.050.19313.71930.0034-0.2150.18815.03840.0055-0.2930.18217.62350.0036-0.2630.17619.85560.0037-0.2840.1722.6370.0028-0.1330.16423.28380.0039-0.0350.15823.33390.005100.1190.15123.953100.008110.1880.14425.661110.007120.2180.13728.206120.005130.270.12932.608130.002140.1220.1233.64140.002150.0280.11133.704150.00416-0.1490.10235.858160.0033717:50©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(whitenoise).bBasedontheasymptoticchi-squareapproxima2tion.5,,1002.2,,,100,HoltWinters50,spss1HoltWinters,matlab6.5,66HoltWinters:19002000HoltWinters6,HoltWinters,,5033502010202020302040205020601.401971.641971.881972.121972.361972.60197502000:45020002010202020302040205020600.201970.441970.681970.921971.161971.40197,200020501.43,,MannKendall,100,HoltWinters,50,0.24/10a:[1]EricDeWeaver.UncertaintyinClimateModelProjectionsofArcticSeaIceDecline:AnEvaluationRelevanttoPolarBears.U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,U.S.GeologicalSurvey.2007,36.[2],,.45.,100081;2.,2007,33(7)7:91.[3],.[M].,,2004.[4].spss[M].,,2006.4724