中山大学岭南学院-中级-宏观经济学-Macroeconomics-Reviews2

MacroeconomicsReviews----CenHuiOutlinesⅠ(Ⅰ)Basicconceptsandrelations(Ⅱ)Verylongruneconomicgrowth(Ⅲ)Businesscycle(Ⅳ)Macroeconomicpolicytheory：ⅰThreeobjectivesofmacroeconomicⅱStabilizationpolicyⅲDebatesOutlinesⅡ(Ⅴ)MoreonmicroeconomicsbehindmacroeconomicsⅰConsumptionⅱInvestment(Ⅰ)BasicconceptsandrelationsThreeveryimportantDefinition.(ⅰ)GDPVSGNP(ⅱ)Priceindex(ⅲ)Unemploymentrate(ⅰ)GDPVSGNPGrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isthemarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.GrossnationalproductGNPisthetotalincomeearnedbyanation’spermanentresidents(callednationals).Relations:GNP=GDP+FactorPaymentsFromAbroad−FactorPaymentstoAbroad.NNP=GNP−Depreciation.*(Warning)NationalIncome=NNP−IndirectBusinessTaxes.Disposable(Personal)IncomeYD=NationalIncome−PersonalTaxes(DirectTaxes)−(NetBusinessSaving)+TransferPaymentsVS(2-3thesecondparagraphhastoldyouinthetextbookwewilldisregardDepr.)Productionapproach——ValueaddedExpenditureapproach:importsExportsNXNXGICYHowtomeasureGDP?NOTES:Grossinvestments:physicalstocksandincludeDepreciationandinventoriesGovernmentpurchases:excludestransferpaymentsEquivalenceofthreeapproaches(ⅱ)PriceindexCPIorPPImeasurestheoverallcostofservicesandgoodsboughtbyatypicalconsumerorproducer.TheGDPdeflator,alsocalledtheimplicitpricedeflatorforGDP,isdefinedastheratioofnominalGDPtorealGDP.CPI&PPIVSGDPdeflatorDistinctions:1)CPIorPPI:fixedbasket(kindsandquantities);GDPdeflator:variedweights2)CPIorPPI:smallbasket;GDPdeflator:largebasket3)CPIorPPI:canincludeimportsGDPdeflator:excludesimportsCalculationforpriceindexes——CPICalculationforpriceindexes——GDPdeflatorLet’smake2000thebaseyear,howtocalculatetheGDPdeflatorin2010?RecallthatSofirstweshouldcalculatethenominalandrealGDPin2010:NominalGDP=60,000*120+20*400,000=15,200,000RealGDP=50,000*120+10*400,000=10,000,000GDPdeflator=15,200,000/10,000,000*100=152(ⅲ)Unemploymentrate(Ⅱ)Verylongruneconomicgrowth(ⅰ)Howtomeasurethegrowthrate(1)Def.1:compoundinterestmethodSeekforg:(Taylorpolynomials)xxdtxdgtxxgtxxgtxxggtxxtttttt/)(lnlnlnlimlimlnlnlnln)1ln()1ln(lnln000000gngenng1!0)1(0gxxtt(2)Def.2:leastsquaredmethodLinearregressionmodel:),0(~,ln20NtgaxYt),(min0gaQts.niiitgaygaQ1200)(),(Seekforg:(ⅱ)GrowthmodelFourdimensionalities:totalVSpercapitaCapitalVSoutputShort-runVSlong-runLevelVSgrowthrate1Neoclassicalgrowththeory(Solowmodel)Withouttechnicalprogress*(1)Productionandallocation:kyLKY1Total:percapita:0lim,MPKLKFouridentities1)Diminishingmarginalproduct2)Exponentialsaresharesofincome3)4)Constantreturnstoscales(2)SavingandInvestment(Two-sectoreconomy)grossISknsykKsYDIK)(ThelastequationisthekeyequationtoSolowdiagram.ConvergenceSolowDiagramsykn)(ky*k*yEquilibriumComparativeStaticsComparativeStaticsOthermodels--Solowmodel(withtechnicalprogress)1)realvalues-------effectivevalues-------realvalues1)(),,(ALKLKAFgggky2)Harrodneutrality:A---efficiencyoflaborAL---effectivelabor3)Conclusion:Insteadystate,(OnlyholdsunderHarrodneutrality)Othermodels--NewgrowththeoryAKmodelAKmodelwithtechnicalprogress(ⅲ)GrowthaccountingequationNotesandCommentsGrowththeorymainlytellsushowtheeconomyrealizesverylong-runeconomicgrowthwhilethegrowthaccountingequationtellsuswhatfactorsdeterminetheeconomicgrowthofoutput(percapita).Inthelongrun,AScurveisverticalandatthepotentiallevel.Thegrowththeoryhastolduswhythisverticalcurvewillshift.(Ⅲ)BusinesscycleLong-runAScurve(Ⅲ)BusinesscycleShort-runAScurveFromPhillipscurvetoshort-runAScurve)(nWuug*(*)*2YYuuY＝％)(neWuugeWg1**[1(*)]ttbYYYPPYY或11(*)etttPPPYYgwisthegrowthrateofnominalwage.PtisdeterminedbytheequilibriumofPeriodtandistheparameteroftheshort-runAScurveinPeriodt+1.Short-runAScurveisthemechanismofpriceadjustment.ThePhillipscurveequationandtheshort-runaggregatesupplyequationrepresentessentiallythesamemacroeconomicideas.TheyaretwosidesofthesamecoinNotesandCommentsShort-runAScurve:upward-slopingPYASDefinition.ofshort-runADcurveTheaggregatedemand(AD)curvepresents,foreachgivenpricelevel,thelevelofoutputatwhichthegoodsmarketsandmoneymarketsaresimultaneouslyinequilibrium.SowemustuseIS-LMmodeltoanalyzethegoodsmarketsandmoneymarketstoseekforthestateofequilibrium.IS-LMmodelDerivingIScurve:TheKeynesianCrossbiIITRTAYYcYCCGICYdd)(biAYGACcTRIG*11(1)GdYdGctDerivingLMcurve:ThetheoryofLiquidityPreference)(1PMkYhiPMPMhikYPMSDEquilibriumintheIS-LMmodelFromIS-LMtoADcurve*()bMhPYA1*GkMhhkbPiAAS-ADmodelYYPASADtwospecialcasesofIS-LMmodelLet’slookattwospecialcasesofIS-LMmodel.TheClassicalcase--QuantityTheoryofMoneyTheKeynesiancase--Liquiditytrap(ⅰ)QuantityTheoryofMoneyiYPMPMohkYPMSD)(,PYMVPMkYkV1LMV----Velocityofmoney;Y----realGDPTheADcurveinthiscasePYADPYMVVerticalLMcurveiscalledtheclassicalcase.NotesandcommentsTheprecedinganalysisgivesthewaytoobtainthequantitytheoryofmoney,butthatisnottheprocessofthedevelopmentofthequant