罗伯特J凯伯《国际金融》(第十三版英文版)课件

MechanismsofInternationalAdjustment©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse1PowerPointslidespreparedby:AndreeaChiritescuEasternIllinoisUniversityAdjustmentMechanisms•Adjustmentmechanism•Worksforthereturntoequilibriumaftertheinitialequilibriumhasbeendisrupted•Current-accountadjustment•Automaticadjustment•Discretionarygovernmentpolicies•Automaticadjustmentofthecurrent-account•Underafixedexchange-ratesystem•Adjustmentvariables:pricesandincome©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse2PriceAdjustments•Goldstandard,late1800stoearly1900s•Conditionsforeachmembernation•Moneysupply=goldorpapermoneybackedbygold•Officialpriceofgold–definedintermsofnationalcurrency•Buyandsellgoldatthatprice•Freeimportandexportofgold•Moneysupply-directlytiedtocurrent-account©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse3PriceAdjustments•Quantitytheoryofmoney•Classicalprice-adjustmentmechanism•Equationofexchange:MV=PQ•M–moneysupply•V–velocityofmoney•P-averagepriceatwhicheachofthefinalgoodsissold•Q–physicalvolumeofallfinalgoodsproduced©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse4PriceAdjustments•MV=PQidentity•Totalmonetaryexpendituresonfinalgoods=monetaryvalueofthefinalgoodssold•Amountspentonfinalgoods=amountreceivedfromsellingthem©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse5PriceAdjustments•Classicaleconomists•Assumptions•Qisfixedatthefullemploymentlevelinthelongterm•Vwasconstant•AchangeinMmustinduceadirectandproportionatechangeinP©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse6PriceAdjustments•Criticismsagainsttheprice-adjustmentmechanism•Classicallinkagebetweenchangesinanation’sgoldsupplyandchangesinitsmoneysupplynolongerholds•Fullemployment–doesn’talwaysexist•Pricesandwagesareinflexibleinadownwarddirection•StabilityandpredictabilityofV-questioned©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse7FinancialFlowsandInterest-RateDifferentials•Factorsaffectinganation’scapitalandfinancialaccount•Interest-ratefluctuationsindomesticandforeignmarkets•Investmentprofitability•Nationaltaxpolicies•Politicalstability©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse8Interest-ratedifferentialsbetweentheUnitedStatesandtherestoftheworldinducemovementsalongtheU.S.capitalandfinancialaccountschedule.Relativelyhigh(low)U.S.interestratestriggernetfinancialinflows(outflows)andanupward(downward)movementalongthecapitalandfinancialaccountschedule.Thescheduleshiftsupward/downwardinresponsetochangesinnoninterestratedeterminantssuchasinvestmentprofitability,taxpolicies,andpoliticalstability.©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse9CapitalandfinancialaccountschedulefortheU.S.FIGURE13.1IncomeAdjustments•Incomeadjustmentmechanism•JohnMaynardKeynes,1930s•Focusonautomaticchangesinincometobringaboutadjustmentinanation’scurrentaccount•Underfixedexchangerates•Influenceofincomechangesinnationswithcurrent-accountsurplusesanddeficitswouldhelprestoreequilibriumautomatically©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseaspermittedinalicensedistributedwithacertainproductorserviceorotherwiseonapassword‐protectedwebsiteforclassroomuse10IncomeAdjustments•Incomeadjustmentmechanism•Underfixedexchangerates•Persistentcurrent-accountsurplus•Risingincome-Increasingimports•Current-accountdeficit•Fallinincome-Decliningimports•Effectsofincomechangesonimportlevelswillreversethedisequilibriuminthecurrentaccount©2011CengageLearning.AllRightsReserved.Maynotbecopied,scanned,orduplicated,inwholeorinpart,exceptforuseasp