项目管理PPT Chapter 8 Project Risk Management

Chapter9–ProjectRiskManagement1.ProjectRiskManagement•Riskmanagementisdefinedastheartandscienceofidentifying,analyzing,andrespondingtoriskfactorsthroughoutthelifeofaprojectandinthebestinterestsofitsobjectives.(textbookP221)•Projectriskcanbesimplydefinedasanypossibleeventthatcannegativelyaffecttheviabilityofaproject.1.ProjectRiskManagement•RiskManagementincludes:(P223)–RiskIdentification•Findoutwhicharelikelytoaffecttheproject–Analysisofprobabilityandconsequences•Evaluatetherisktoassesstherangeofpossibleoutcomes–Riskmitigationstrategies•defineenhancementstepsforopportunitiesandresponse.Sometimescalledresponseplanning/mitigation–ControlanddocumentationChapter9–ProjectRiskManagementChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement2.RiskIdentificationConcept–DeterminewhichrisksarelikelytoaffecttheprojectanddocumentingthemP2232.RiskIdentification•Inputs–ProductDescription•Therearemorerisksassociatedwithunproventechnologies(innovation/invention).Oftendescribedintermsofcostandscheduleimpact–OtherPlanningReports•WBS(anynon-traditionalapproaches)•Cost/DurationEstimates–aggressiveschedules;limitedinformation•StaffingPlan–hardtoreplace/sourceskilledpersons•ProcurementManagementPlan–marketconditions–HistoricalInformation•previousprojects:ProjectFiles,CommercialDatabases,ProjectTeamKnowledge(members’experiences)Chapter9–ProjectRiskManagementChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement2.RiskIdentification•Tools&Techniques–Checklists•organizedbysourceofrisk,includedprojectcontext,processoutputs,productandtechnologyissues,internalsources–Flowcharting•understandcauseandeffectrelationships–Interviewing•conversationswithstakeholdersChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement(textb)Anumberofmethods,qualitativeandquantitative,areavailableforconductingriskfactoridentificationforindustry-specificrisks,including:•Brainstormingmeetings•Expertopinion•Pasthistory•Multiple2.RiskIdentification•Outputs–SourcesofRisk•categoriesofpossibleriskevents,all-inclusive(Changesinrequirements,Designerrors,omissions,misunderstanding,poorlydefinedrolesandresponsibilities,Insufficientlystaff)–Sources:»External:Regulatory,environmental,government»Internal:Schedule,cost,scopechange,inexperience,planning,people,staffing,materials,equipment»Technical:Changesintechnology»Unforeseeable:small(onlyabout10%)»RiskI,RiskII•Includeestimateofprobability,rangeofpossibleoutcomes,expectedtiming,anticipatedfrequency(continued)Chapter9–ProjectRiskManagement2.RiskIdentification•Outputs–PotentialRiskEvents•Discrete(unusual)occurrencesthatmayaffectproject•Newtechnologiesobsoleteneededbyproduct•Socio,PoliticalandEconomicevents•Includeestimateofprobability,rangeofpossibleoutcomes,expectedtiming,anticipatedfrequency–RiskSymptoms•Earlywarningsigns–RiskTolerances•amountofriskthatisacceptable–Inputtoothermanagementprocess(time,cost,qualityetc.)Chapter9–ProjectRiskManagementChapter9–ProjectRiskManagementRiskmayexist(textbook)•Financialrisk•Technicalrisk•Commercialrisk•Executionrisk•Contractualorlegalrisk•Absenteeism•Resignation•Staffpulledawaybymanagement•Additionalstaffskillsnotavailable•Trainingnotaseffectiveasdesired•Initialspecificationspoorlyorincompletelyspecified•Workorchangeordersmultiplyduetovariousproblems•Enhancementstakelongerthanexpected3.RiskQuantification–Assessriskstodeterminerangeofpossibleoutcomes;whichriskeventswarrant(musthave)aresponse.Thiswillinvolve:•Opportunitiesandthreatscanprovideunanticipatedresults(e.g.scheduledelayisconsideredforanewstrategy)•MultipleeffectsfromasingleeventChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement3.RiskQuantification•Singularstakeholder’sopportunitymayforcesufferinginotherareas•Reliance(basedon)onstatisticsandforecasting•ProbabilityandAmountofImpact•Developaranking(priority)ofrisks–Qualitative–takeaneducatedguess–Quantitative–estimationbycalculationChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement3.RiskQuantification•Inputs–Stakeholderrisktolerance•Morecapitaltoexpend;perceptionsofseverity–SourcesofRisk(fromRI)–PotentialRiskEvents(fromRI)–CostEstimates–ActivityDurationEstimatesChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement3.RiskQuantification•Tools&Techniques–ExpectedMonetaryValue•Productof2numbersP×V•RiskEventProbability–estimatethateventwilloccur•RiskEventValue–estimateofgainorloss–StatisticalSums•CalculaterangeoftotalcostsfromcostestimatesforindividualworkitemswithprobabilitiesChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement3.RiskQuantification•Tools&Techniques–Simulation•representationormodel;providestatisticaldistributionofcalculatedresults(MonteCarlo,CriticalPath,PERTtechniques)–DecisionTrees–ExpertJudgment–SensitivityAnalysis•estimatetheeffectofchangeofoneprojectvariableonoverallprojectChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement3.RiskQuantification•Outputs–Riskprobability,–Rangeofpossibleoutcomes,–Expectedtiming,–Anticipatedfrequency–Prioritiesofprojectrisks–Opportunitiestopursueandthreatstorespond–OpportunitiestoignoreandthreatstoacceptChapter9–ProjectRiskManagementChapter9–ProjectRiskManagement4.RiskResponseDevelopment–Mainresponsesareasfollows:•Avoidance–eliminatingthreatbyeliminatingthecause•Mitigation–reducingexpectedmonetaryvalueofeventbyre