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山东省城市化对水资源与水环境的影响研究ASTUDYONEFFECTOFWATERRESOURCEANDWATERENVIRONMENTDURINGTHEURBANIZATIONPROCESSINSHANDONGPROVINCE报告人：袁存超NAME:YUANCUNCHAO山东大学环境科学与工程学院SCHOOLOFENVIRONMENTALSCIENCEANDENGINEERING,SHANDONGUNIVERSITY内容提要1城市化对水资源与水环境的影响回顾分析ReviewofEffectOnWaterResourceandWaterEnvironment2城市化对水资源与水环境的影响预测PredictionofUrbanizationandtheImpactintheNearFuture3水资源可持续利用与水环境保护的战略思考及对策分析StrategicCountermeasurefortheProtectionofWaterResourceandWaterEnvironment4山东省城市化过程及社会经济发展变化UrbanizationProcessandSocio-economicChange11、人口动态—非农化率(NonagriculturalRate)0510152025303540194919561961196619711976198119861991199620012006%正常上升起伏停滞持续发展加速发展2、人口动态——城市化率(UrbanizationRate)20253035404550199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006%非农化率城市化率3、社会经济增长与城市化Socio-economicDevelopmentandUrbanization(1)城市化与社会经济发展水平一般规律GeneralLawsofUrbanizationandSocio-economicDevelopment城市化率与人均GDP线性拟合图y=11.485Ln(x)-30.854R2=0.99940204060800200040006000800010000美元/人%3、社会经济增长与城市化Socio-economicDevelopmentandUrbanization(2)山东省社会经济水平下的城市化UrbanizationRateandTheSocio-economicSituationChangesinShandongProvince年份199519961997199819992000人均GDP(美元/人)68181089896010191119理论值44.046.147.248.048.749.7实际值32.033.634.535.337.138.2△值12.012.512.712.711.611.5年份200120022003200420052006人均GDP(美元/人)122913671599197724432974理论值50.852.053.956.358.760.9实际值40.141.342.543.445.046.1△值10.710.711.412.913.714.8城市化率(%)城市化率(%)注：△值为理论值与实际值的差值。1、城市用水量变化ChangesofQuantityUrban-waterUse1995-2006年山东省城市用水量变化05101520253035404550199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006亿m3工业生活市政公共和生态2、城市用水效率变化ChangesofQuantityandEfficiencyofUrban-waterUse城市人均日生活用水量变化120130140150160199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006L/(人.d)万元工业增加值用水量变化050100150200199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006m3/万元3、城市化与城市污染源(UrbanizationandtheSourceofPollution)COD排放量变化05000001000000150000020000002500000199519971999200120032005吨总量工业生活NH3-N排放量变化020000400006000080000100000120000199519971999200120032005吨总量工业生活城市生活废水排放量同人口城市化水平相关性分析y=3464.8x-12826R2=0.88288000090000100000110000120000130000140000150000160000170000323334353637383940414243444546%m3人口城市化(PopulationUrbanization)工业废水排放量同工业企业数量相关性分析y=1.6556x+91284R2=0.9194100000105000110000115000120000125000130000135000140000145000150000100001500020000250003000035000m3产业活动(IndustrialMovement)COD排放量与废水治理投资相关关系y=-0.4633x+96.702R2=0.89267075808590950102030405060亿元万吨环保政策与投资(EnvironmentalProtectionPoliciesandInvestment)4、地表水环境质量变化(QualityChangesoftheWaterEnvironment)山东省地表水综合污染指数0.50.70.91.11.31.5199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006城市化与地表水环境质量耦合机制CouplingMechanismandRulesbetweenUrbanizationandWaterEnvironmentQualityChanges城市化与地表水环境质量耦合曲线y=-0.0097x2+0.7637x-13.84R2=0.814900.20.40.60.811.21.41.63035404550%城市化与生态环境质量作用机制CouplingMechanismandRulesbetweenUrbanizationandEco-environment1、城市化与社会经济发展水平PredictionoftheUrbanizationandSocio-economicdevelopmentUrbanization年份高方案中方案低方案201052.551.550.0202068.065.060.0Socio-economy方案一方案二方案三GDP(亿元)360003500033000第一产业(亿元)290028002600工业180001700016000建筑业200019001800第三产业(亿元)131001300012000GDP(亿元)1120009100075000第一产业(亿元)450036003000工业460003700031000建筑业520042003500第三产业(亿元)560004600037000第二产业(亿元)2020年第二产业(亿元)2010年2、城市水资源供需平衡分析AnalysisoftheBalancebetweenWaterDemandandSupplyIWSD方案一方案二方案三20100.06560.09980.135720200.03280.16690.26192010年和2020年城市水资源开发利用率020406080100120方案一方案二方案三%2010年2020年3、污染物排放预测与环境承载力分析(PollutantEmissionPredictionandEnvironmentalCarryingCapacityAnalysis)COD承压度预测00.20.40.60.811.21.41.6方案一方案二方案三2010年2020年NH3-N承压度预测00.511.522.533.544.5方案一方案二方案三2010年2020年水资源可持续利用和水环境保护的战略思考和对策分析StrategicCountermeasurefortheProtectionofWaterResourceandWaterEnvironmentDuringtheUrbanizationProcess1、落实城市化发展战略,以新型工业化促进城市化的发展StimulatetheAccelerationofUrbanization,MakeNewTypesofIndustrializationastheDrivingForcefortheUrbanizationProcess2、水资源可持续利用对策和措施StrategicCountermeasuretoEnhancetheSustainabilityofWaterUse3、水环境改善策略StrategytoImprovetheWaterEnvironment