电子商务快递公司需求牛鞭效应问题及其解决方案研究

合肥工业大学硕士学位论文电子商务快递公司需求牛鞭效应问题及其解决方案研究姓名：王佳华申请学位级别：硕士专业：物流工程指导教师：何建民2011-05I(1)()(2)()ebXML(10YJA630055)IIResearchonBullwhipEffectRequirementsandSolutionProgramofE-commerceExpressDeliveryCompanyABSTRACTWiththeInternetandinformationtechnologywidelyapplication,whichusheredtherapiddevelopmentofe-commerce,onlineshoppinghasbecomeanewchannelsandwaysforpeople,Thedeliverycompanywhichservefore-businessexpresshasdevelopquickly,Baseon”cloudlogistics”expressmodehasbecomethenewmodeofoperation.Inordertoachieveefficientdistributionofgoodsterminal,themainbodyofthemodelofexpresscompanyincludetwoparts:(1)Thedeliverycompanywhichhavealargenumberofwaybillinformation(hereinafterreferredtoaslargecompanies);(2)Thedeliverycompanywhichjointhelargecompaniestoobtainorders(Hereinafterreferredtoassmallcompanies).Largecompaniesande-commerceenterprisestomaintainlong-termstablerelationsofcooperation,anditwouldgetalotofinformationaboutthewaybillofgoods,smallcompaniessendthedemandinformationtothelargecompaniesregularly,Thenlargecompanieswoulddistributetheinformationofgoodstothesmallcompanies,basedonregionalcharacteristicsandtimeurgencyandotherfactors.Inpractice,baseonorderdistributionarestillexistdemandamplificationofbullwhipeffect.Inordertosolvetheproblemandgiveaneffectivesolution,wewouldanalysistheamplificationprocessofdemandinformationbetweentheexpressdeliverycompanies.Theresearchonthedeliverycompaniesdevelopmentwhichservingfore-commercehasthetheoreticalsignificanceandpracticalvalue.Baseone-commercetheory,demandforecastingtheory,thispaperuseofebXMLtechnicalandquantitativeanalysis,andliteraturereview.Onthisbasis,analysistheamplificationprocessofdemandinformationbetweentheexpressdeliverycompanies.Constructabullwhipeffectmodelbetweendeliverycompanies.Through,analysisandproofofthemodel,Revealedthebullwhipeffectisinevitable,andonlybytakingthecorrespondingmeasurestoweakenthebullwhipeffect,couldachievethecouriercompanyandbusinesshealthydevelopment.Finally,buildinginformationexchangeandsharingofplatformsolutionstoachievethesharingofinformationbetweenthecouriercompaniestoresolvetheuncertaintyofthetransmissionofinformationtobringthebullwhipeffect,Itprovidetheoreticalbasisandpracticalmethodsfortheexpressdeliveryservicesine-commercecompaniesandtheirbusinesshealthydevelopment.IIIThissubjectoriginatesfromproblemsoftheHumanitiesandSocialSciencesFoundationoftheMinistryofEducation(10YJA630055).Keywords:E-commercelogistics;expressdeliverybusiness;bullwhipeffect;informationsharingandexchangeplatformVII1-1...................................................32-1............................................52-2ebXML..........................................112-3.............................................144-1...............264-2..............................284-3..........................294-4............................294-5.........................................314-6.....................................322-1......................................820115312011531201153111.11.1.12060201979110020201015155020205122[1]EMSUPSDHLFedExTNT(1)?2(2)?(3)1.1.2(1)(2)(3)1.21.2.1ebXML31.2.21-1ebXML1-11.31.3.1(1)(2)(3)1.3.2452.12.1.1[2]ElectronicCommerceEC[3]1EC[4]2-1EC2-1ECEC6EC[5]2[6](1)Internet(2)(3)EDI(4)7(5)2.1.21[7](1)8(2)C2-12-11234567891011(1-3)6(2)4(2)69825723444458873445730.51518122055981.523.58135125555192018171417121515899(1)(2)(3)2[8][9][10]SingleExponentialSmoothingSES1111(1)kttkkDXαα∞−+−+==−∑DXα01α11(1)11(1)kkαααα∞−=−==−−∑1(1)kαα−−1111(1)kttkkDXαα∞−+−+==−∑10(1)ttXDαα=+−1(1)tttDXDαα+=+−11DX=α01αααα[11][12]2.1.3ebXML19982W3C(WorldWideWebConsortium)XML(eXtensibleMarkupLanguage)XML,InternetXML[13]:XMLSMIL(SynchronizedMultimediaIntegrationLanguage)SVG(ScalableVectorGraphics)XMLEDI(ElectronicDataInterchange),,[14]ebXML(electronicbusinessXML)UN/CEFACT(UnitedNationsCentreforTradeFacilitationandElectronicBusiness)OASIS(OrganizationfortheAdvancementofStructuredInformationStandards)ebXMLXML,XML[15]ebXMLXML,ebXML[16]2-2212(1)(1)tttXXXααααα−−=+−+−+L11CPPCPACPPContextForReferenceto2-2ebXML:ebXML,(CoreComponent)ebXMLCPP(CollaborationProtocolProfile)XML,CPPCPA(CollaborationProtocolAgreement)CPACPACPPCPACPP/(registry)CPP,,XML,2.22.2.112Haul.LeeSeunginWhang[17]WinningthelastmileofE-Commence[18]ITMarkusHesse[19]CharlesCPoirieMichaelJBauer[20]KentNGourdin[21][22][23]Agent:ElectmnicCommerceECE1ectmniccommercevendorECV13LogisticssenriceProviderLSP[24,25][26]B2C2.2.2Ki-HoChung,Jae-JeungRho,ChangSeongKo[27]CandaceA.Yano[28][29]TanKallLing[30]UPSFedEx[31]B2BB2CC2C[32]142.2.3[33]2-32-3HLLee[33,34](1)[8,35-39](2)[36]15(3)[40],(4)[36](5)[41,42]Ricardo[43]FrankChen[8]BE=Var(SD)/Var(RD)SDRDBE16DisneyTowil[44-49](VenderManagementInventory,VMI)VMIFrankChen[8]SMDisney[50]JoseADMachuca[51](EDI)XMLEDI[52]ebXMLXMLebXML2.317183.1(1)(2)(3)3.2t,itQ(,{1,2,,}iIIm∈=L)tt+LL-1ti,itD19(1)(2)t,,1,1ˆˆ(1)itititDDDαα−−=+−1,1(1)nkitkkDαα−−==−∑(1)α01α,1itD−it-1it,its,its=,ˆitLD+,iitzδ(2),ˆitLDi,iitzδiizi,itδti[8](2),itδ,itδi,itQ,,,1,1ititititQssD−−=−+,,1,1ˆˆitititLDLDD−−=−++,,1()iitiitzzδδ−−=,1,1ˆ(1)i