第六天：防空作战运筹分析

第三章防空作战运筹分析Chapter3ORAnalysisforAirDefenseOperationsORAnalysisforAirForceDefenseOperations空中进攻作战运筹分析P1P2L1L2CP3P1P2L1L2CP3P1P2L1L2CP3（1）保卫目标损失最小Min.Lossoftargetstobeprotected（2）我机损失尽可能小thelossofourfriendlya/cisaslessaspossible.（3）敌机损失尽可能大thelossofenemya/cisasgreateraspossible.（4）尽远截击interceptasfaraspossible（1）兵力数量约束Constraintsofthenumberofforces（2）截击地段约束Constraintsofinterceptionsector（3）引导能力约束Constraintsofguidance（4）机场起降能力约束ConstraintsoftakeoffandlandingcapabilityofairfieldSection1AnOverviewofAirDefenseOperations第一讲防空作战运筹概述Section2AviationForcesResistanceCapabilityAnalysis第二讲航空兵抗击能力分析Section3AnalysisofResistanceCapabilityofGround-BasedAirDefenseForces第三讲地面防空兵抗击能力分析ORAnalysisforAirForceDefenseOperations空中进攻作战运筹分析基地目标TargetBaseI.FactorsAffectingResistanceCapability一、影响抗击能力的主要因素III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析II.Analysisonresistancerangeofground-basedairdefenseforces二、地面防空兵抗击范围分析Section3AnalysisofResistanceCapabilityofGround-BasedAirDefenseForces第三讲地面防空兵抗击能力分析射击开火发现目标警戒跟踪firetracksurveillanceDetectionI.FactorsAffectingResistanceCapability一、影响抗击能力的主要因素OperationalCommandSystem作战指挥系统；OperationalCapabilityofAirDefensiveWeapons防空兵器的作战能力；ECM电子对抗装备；PersonnelsInvovledintheOperation,etc.参战人员等。OperationalEnvironment作战环境；EW预警系统；I.FactorsAffectingResistanceCapability一、影响抗击能力的主要因素I.FactorsAffectingResistanceCapability一、影响抗击能力的主要因素II.Analysisonresistancerangeofground-basedairdefenseforces二、地面防空兵抗击范围分析III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析Section3AnalysisofResistanceCapabilityofGround-BasedAirDefenseForces第三讲地面防空兵抗击能力分析地空导弹杀伤区图KillandInjuryAreaofSAMkmkmm地空导弹杀伤区图KillandInjuryAreaofSAMI.FactorsAffectingResistanceCapability一、影响抗击能力的主要因素II.Analysisonresistancerangeofground-basedairdefenseforces二、地面防空兵抗击范围分析III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析Section3AnalysisofResistanceCapabilityofGround-BasedAirDefenseForces第三讲地面防空兵抗击能力分析(I)ResistanceEffectIndexes（一）抗击效果指标(II)MethodsofResistanceEffectAnalysis（二）抗击效果分析方法III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析(I)ResistanceEffectIndexes（一）抗击效果指标Expectationofenemya/ccombatlosses击毁架数的数学期望III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析Formation编队：Probabilityofnumberofformationsdestroyed击毁编队的概率Probabilitydistributionofnumberofenemya/ccombatlosses击毁架数的概率分布Probabilityofdestroyingsomeenemya/c击毁若干架以上的概率Alonea/c:单机：Probabilityofalonea/cdestroyed单机被毁概率III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析(II)MethodsofResistanceEffectAnalysis（二）抗击效果分析方法目标基地基地TargetBaseBaseTrainofThought:思路：DamageEffectoftheFireUnit火力单位射击效果ResistanceEffectofAirDefenseSystem防空体系抗击效果III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析1.DamageEffectAnalysisofOneFireUnit1.一个火力单位射击效果分析III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析(II)MethodsofResistanceEffectAnalysis（二）抗击效果分析方法22DRORD122maxTVDRCprobabilityofdestroyingana/cbyonefireunit一个火力单位对敌机的击毁率Pdestruction=1–（1–P1）式中：Intheformula:C——敌机遭到地面防空火力单位射击的次数；C——numberoffiringthehostilea/cbytheground-basedairdefenseunitsP1——地面防空火力单位一次射击的击毁概率。P1——probabilityofdestructionbytheground-basedairdefenseunitsatonetimeIII.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析CProbabilityofsuccessfulfiringonabatchoftargetsbyeachfireunitofground-basedairdefenseweapons:地面防空兵器每个火力单位对一批目标射击成功的概率为：W′＝P发现detection·P指挥command·P可靠reliability·P击毁destruction·P生存survivability·P反干扰anit-jamming·P反机动anti-maneuverP发现detection——雷达发现目标概率；ProbabilityofdetectionbyradarP指挥command——指挥成功概率；probabilityofsuccessfulcommandP可靠reliability——武器系统可靠概率；probabilityofreliabilityofweaponsP击毁destruction——地面防空兵器每个火力单位对一架飞机的击毁率；probabilityofdestroyingana/cbyonefireunitoftheground-basedairdefenseweaponsP生存survivability——武器系统生存概率；probabilityofsurvivabilityofweaponsP反干扰antijamming——武器系统反干扰概率；probabilityofantijammingofweaponsP反机动anti-maneuver——武器系统反机动概率。Probabilityofanti-maneuverofweaponsIII.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析2.ResistanceEffectAnalysisonGround-basedAirDefensiveSystem2.地面防空体系抗击效果分析III.Analysisonresistanceeffectofground-basedairdefenseforces三、地面防空兵抗击效果分析(II)MethodsofResistanceEffectAnalysis（二）抗击效果分析方法W1'成功W2'成功11W'失败Wn'成功12W'失败1Wn'失败第1个火力单位射击第2个火力单位射击第n个火力单位射击Firebythe1stfireunitFirebythe2ndfireunitFirebynfireunitssuccessfailuresuccessfailuresuccessfailure基地目标TargetBase