2009全球十大经济事件回顾,2010十大经济预测

Ryan,[e-mail]CRISIS&GLOBALSTORM2009U-bottomVs.V-bottomOr,W&LToday,wereviewthepastissuesforguidance,andthencastournetforward.Topic1:Ashortreviewof2008/TOP5Topic2:TOP10Eco-Issuesin2009Topic3:OurMarket’sFundamentalFiguresTopic4:Whatabout2010?[e-mail]TheEndofInvestmentBankingOilRidestheRollercoasterFederalReservecutsInterestRatestoZeroEquitiesCollapseacrosstheGlobeTheSwellingRanksofUnemployedSocialismwithintheHeartofCapitalismTreasurybailsoutFinancialSectorwith$700bnGDPcontracts,GlobalRecessiontocontinuein2009Big-threeAutomakerspleadforBillions[e-mail]TheUnitedStatedwithaGDPof$13.8trillionistheworld’sNo.1.ByJune2008,theeconomyfellintoarecession.Japanistheworld’ssecondlargesteconomy.Withahugefallinexports,Japanhasmoveddeeperintorecessioninthefourthquarter.ChinahassteeredaheadofGermanyastheworld’sthirdlargesteconomyTheGDPgrowthinthefourthdroppedto6.8percent,pullingdownthefullyeargrowthdownto9percentfrom13percentin2007.Germanyhasbeenpushedtothe4thpositionafterbeingrankedthirdformanyyears.TheGDPinthe15euronationscontractedby0.2percentduringAugust,SeptemberandOctober2008.Thefifthlargesteconomy,UnitedKingdomfellby[e-mail]1.TheUSimplementedeconomicstimuluspackageandQuantitativeeasingmonetarypolicy.Top10EcoIssuesin20092.G20SummitheldinLondonstrengthenedtheglobalfinancialcooperationandsupervision.Top10EcoIssuesin2009[e-mail]4.Australiabecamethefirstmember[e-mail]5.TheEUandt[e-mail]6.Theshrinkingglo[e-mail][e-mail]8.Thereisaprospectthattheworldeconomycansurvivefromt[e-mail]9.Theinterna[e-mail]10.AnagreementwithoutanylegalrestrictionpowerwasmadeinCo[e-mail]@[e-mail]@gmail.comUKin2009-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.50UKGDPQoQ-6-5-4-3[e-mail]@gmail.comEUin20097.588.599.510E/ZONEUNEMPLOYMENTRATE-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.51GDPQoQ-80-60-40-20020406080Ze[e-mail]3-mLIBORinUK,[e-mail]2010:Top10predictions1.TheU.S.RecoveryWillStartSlowly.2.EuropeandJapanWillReboundMoreSlowlyThantheUnitedStates.3.MostEmergingMarkets—EspeciallyinAsia—WillOutpacetheDevelopedEconomies.4.InterestRatesintheG-8EconomiesWillRemainVeryLow.5.FiscalStimulusWillBegintoEase.6.CommodityPricesWillMoveSideways.7.InflationWill(Mostly)NotBeaProblem.8.AfterImprovingforaWhile,GlobalImbalancesWillWorsenAgain.9.WhiletheDollarMayStrengthenaLittle,ItisonaDownwa[e-mail]:TheU.S.DollarIndexwillseeshort-termbounce,thenhugecrash.Oilwillrisebackabove$[e-mail]@[e-mail]