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ReportontheStatisticalDiscrepancyofMerchandiseTradeBetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaOctober2009Hangzhou,P.R.C1AbstractInApril2004,the15thU.S.-ChinaJointCommissiononCommerceandTrade(JCCT)establishedastatisticalworkinggroup.ParticipatingunitsfromtheChinesesideincludetheMinistryofCommerceofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheChineseGeneralAdministrationofCustoms;theU.S.sideincludestheU.S.DepartmentofCommerceandtheOfficeoftheU.S.TradeRepresentative.Inviewoftheunusuallylargeandgrowingstatisticaldiscrepanciesinthebilateralmerchandisetradedataofficiallypublishedbytwocountries,theinitialfocusoftheworkinggroupwastoexaminethebilateralmerchandisetradestatisticsbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.Membersagreedtoconductareconciliationstudy,usingrecentdata,toexplainandquantifythestatisticaldiscrepanciesinthebilateralmerchandisetradedata.Thegoalofthestudyisnottoaltertheofficialstatisticsofeithercountry,buttoidentifythecausesofthestatisticaldiscrepanciesintheofficialdataofthetwocountries,andtofacilitateacommonunderstandingbydatausersoftheactualsituationofthebilateraltradeandthecausesofthestatisticaldiscrepanciesinthebilateraltradedata.Adjustmentsmadetostatisticaldata,toachievemutuallyagreeduponsetsoftradefigures,donotimplyerrorsinthestatisticalsystemsofeithercountry.Neitherdotheadjustmentsrepresentrevisionsorcorrectionstoeithercountry’spublishedtradefigures.Previously,in1994,atradestatisticsworkinggroupwasestablishedatthe8thU.S.-ChinaJCCTmeetingtoaddresstheissueofdiscrepanciesinthebilateraltradestatistics.ThemainconclusionreachedwasthatgoodsshippedindirectlyfromChinaviaHongKongandotherintermediarycountriesorregionsaccountforalargepartofthediscrepancyintheU.S.-Chinabilateraltradestatistics.Althoughbothcountriesfollowthesameinternationalguidelinesonmerchandisetradestatisticsprograms,thecorrespondingimportandexportstatisticsfrombothcountrieswillnotnecessarilymatch.DifferencesinpartnercountryattributionandvalueaddedinintermediarycountriesorregionsaremajorcausesofthediscrepanciesinindirecttradefromChinatotheUnitedStates.Thepresentreconciliationstudycoversbilateralmerchandisetradedatainyears2000,2004and2006.Followingarethemainfindingsandconclusions:21.ThelevelofbilateraltradebetweentheUnitedStatesandChinahascontinuedtogrow,andsohasthelevelofthediscrepancies.However,thestatisticaldiscrepancyinpercentage(theabsolutestatisticaldiscrepancyoverthecorrespondingimports’value)hasdecreasedinbotheastboundtrade(ChinatoUnitedStates)andwestboundtrade(UnitedStatestoChina).Inotherwords,disregardingtheimpactoftradeexpansion,thediscrepancyinthebilateraltradestatisticshasdecreased.2.Eastboundtradecontributestothemajorityofthestatisticaldiscrepancy,about80-90percentofthetotal.Thisproportionhasincreasedwiththerecentgrowthinthevolumeofbilateraltrade.U.S.importsfromChinaincreased187percent,from$100.1billion(U.S.Dollars)in2000,toUSD287.8billionin2006.ChinaexportstotheUnitedStatesrose291percent,fromUSD52.1billionin2000toUSD203.5billionin2006.DiscrepanciesincreasedfromUSD48.0billiontoUSD84.3billionoverthesameperiod,whilewestbounddiscrepanciesdecreasedfromUSD6.1billiontoUSD4.0billion.Duetothelargerdiscrepancies,theeffortsoftheworkinggroupareconcentratedonanalyzingtheeastboundtrade.3.Thestatisticaldiscrepancyineastboundtradecanstemfromconceptualandmethodologicaldifferencesinthecollectionandprocessingofthetradedata.Differencesinstatisticalterritorydefinitions,differencesintimingofrecording,andinclusionofre-exportsinexportstatisticscontributetothediscrepancy.However,thesefactorshaveminimalnetimpact.Theworkinggroupfurtherresearchedeastboundindirectanddirecttradeseparatelytostudythestatisticaldiscrepancies:(A)EastboundindirecttradeleavesChina,entersthecommerceofintermediarycountriesorregions,andisthenre-exportedtotheUnitedStates.Theproportionofindirecttradehasdecreasedrecently;however,itstillaccountedforashighas52percentofthetotaleastboundstatisticaldiscrepancyin2006.AlthoughbothChinaandtheUnitedStatesfollowthesameinternationalguidelinesforpartnercountryattribution,thediscrepancyishardtoavoidduetotheattributionofimportstocountryoforigin,andexportstocountryoflastknowndestination.Discrepanciesmayoccurwhengoodsenterthecommerceoftheintermediarycountryorregion.Newvaluesmaybeadded3duetofurtherprocessing,re-packing,orasimplepricemarkupwhenthegoodsarere-sold.Anothersourceofthediscrepanciesiswhentheintermediarycountryorregion,insteadoftheUnitedStates,isthelastknowndestinationbyChineseexporters.Inthiscase,thegoodsarerecordedasexportstotheintermediarycountryorregionbyChinesecustomswhilerecordedasimportsfromChinabytheUnitedStatesbasedontheprincipleofCountryofOrigin.MostindirecttrademovesthroughHongKong,buttheproportionisdecreasinggraduallyeveryyear.Indirecttradethroughothercountriescontinuestoincreaseinbothvolumeanditscontributiontothestatisticaldiscrepancy.ThegroupestimatesthatthestatisticaldiscrepancyattributabletotheabovecausesineastboundindirecttradecontributedUSD28.9billiontotheoveralldiscrepancyin2000,USD32.7billionin2004,andUSD44.1billionin2006.(B)Eastbounddirecttrademovesfro