绿城集团估值 风险分析 投资建议 股权 房地产行业分析 高端住宅 公司简介 竞争者分析 龙湖万科 管

GreentownIndustrialanalysisBackgroundFinancialanalysisValuationRiskanalysisOverviewTherealestateindustryappearspositiveinthefutureseveralyearsAWeexpectGreentownwillarrive￥25.18andslightlyrecommendinvestorstobuyitBINDUSTRIALANALYSIS250%55%60%65%70%75%19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050Theproportionofpeoplebetween15and6420.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013e2020e2030e2050eUrbanpopulationtototalpopulationratioChinesepeoplewillstillbefacedwithalackoflivinghouse①Thepopulationwillkeepgrowinguntil2015②TheurbanizationbringsmoredemandsThetotaldemandswillincrease.INDUSTRIALANALYSIS3People’sbuyingcapacityisincreasing①ThepercapitaGDPisgrowing②Thehousepricetoincomeratiohasbeendecreasinginthelast3years0102030405060708090100GDPDisposableincomeofurbanresidents(thousand)55.566.577.588.5199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012ThehousepricetoincomeratioINDUSTRIALANALYSIS40500100015002000250030003500SHBJSZ200920102011Themarketofrealestateinfirst-tiercitiestendstobestable①Averagesalesperweekbecomestable②SalesamounttopopulationinBJandSHInthefirsttiercities,demandforrealestateistendingtowardsstability0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%1.60%1.80%DJDBSEFSXGBJSHSalestopopulationratioINDUSTRIALANALYSIS50200400600800100012001400160018002000NBWXNJHZ2008200920102011(亿平)050010001500200025003000KMJNNCFSDWWH2008200920102011(亿平)Insecond-tiercities,conditionsappeardifferentindifferentareas①Citieswhosedemandalsotendstobestable②SomeCitiesisstillingrowingprocessINDUSTRIALANALYSIS6Inthirdandfourth-tiercities,conditionismorecomplicated①Populationinthesecitiesneedsmorehousesthansupplied②Insomeofthesecities,supplyismuchgreaterthandemandandalotofpeoplecannotaffordtobuynewhouses.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012TheproportionofpopulationofthirdandfourthtiercitiesINDUSTRIALANALYSIS7Thereformofinterestrateliberalizationwilldogoodtorealestateindustry010203•Inashortterm•InalongtermThepurchasingcapacityofpeoplewon’tbeinfluencedTheabilityofcompaniestogetloanswillincreaseThereformwilldecreasethefinancingcostofthesocietyBACKGROUND8Typesofproducts高层68%别墅11%商业7%多层14%6065707580859095Chinesecityresidentialsatisfaction2012TheadvantagesofGreentown’srecentstrategiesAdvantagesSafeandattractingbuildingsConsideratepropertyservicesDisadvantagesTherangeofproductsistoonarrowOver-aggressivelandstrategy(past)PoorcapitaloperationcapacityBACKGROUND9SongWeiping•ThefinaldecisionmakerofGT•Major:history•Character:idealism宋卫平33%寿柏年23.5%,罗钊明7%其他36.5%2011stockstructure•Ownershipandmanagementrightaretightlycombined•Managementstructurearehighlycentralized宋卫平25.4%寿柏年18%罗钊明4.7%九龙仓24.6%其他27.2%2012stockstructure•Becomesmoresteadyandlessaggressiveinexpansion•Startstomanageitscostsandrisks01STEPFINANCIALANALYSIS10LongforProperties•KnownasGT’sbiggestcompetitor•Foundedin1994inChongqing•Expandedinto17citiesthroughoutChinaChinaResourcesLandLtd•Foundedin1994•Oneofthegiantsinrealestateindustry•50projectsspreadin25citiesAgileProperty•Foundedin1992•Startedtoinvolvedinrealestatein1992•Developsitsresidenceinalarge-scaleandcross-areawayCountryGardenHoldings•“Improvingpeople’slivelihood”asitsdevelopingmodel•Over200projectsinChinaandMalaysia01020403CompetitorsFINANCIALANALYSIS1100.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40.452008200920102011GreentownLongforCRLLCompetitors'AverageGrossmargin00.050.10.150.20.250.30.352008200920102011GreentownLongforCRLLCompetitors'AverageNetmarginGT’sprofitabilityismuchweakerthanitscompetitorsaswellastheaverageleveloftheindustryFINANCIALANALYSIS1200.050.10.150.20.250.3AssetturnoverratioIndustryaverageGreentownGreentown‘slackofmarketingtoolsbringslowassetturnoverratioFINANCIALANALYSIS130246810200920102011GreentownLongforCRLLCompetitors'average00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822008200920102011Currentratio（GT）Quickratio(GT)Quickratio（Competitors'average）AnnualaverageleverageGreentownfacestheproblemsofliquidityandsolvencyCurrentandquickratioofGTFINANCIALANALYSIS14GThasmuchpotentialofdevelopmentifittakesasafeandsteadyway2008Economicdepression2010StrictpolicyagainsthighrealestatepriceCorporatewithJLCAndRCPerformaftertransformationSalesimprovementBalancesheetimprovementSalesCostLeverageFinancialCrisisIn2008and2010RISKANALYSIS15Operationrisk:quality-leadstrategyisactuallysupportedbyhighcosts230044003878485678016787511400808383800485472866014202201020112012CoststructurepermetresquareofGreentown土地费用建筑费用资本化利息费用其他直接成本毛利•Purchasethosebestlandsincities•Lackcontrolofdesignfeeanddecorationcost•Insistsonself-saleRISKANALYSIS16Managementrisk:PotentialconflictsbetweenshareholdersStrategyrisk:Aimatimprovementdemandandalmostdeniesallrigiddemand.Strategyrisk:highlevelproductorientationsuffershighpolicyrisksManagementrisk:riskexistsininternalmanagement5000700090001100013000150001700019000Thefirsthalfof2012salesofTOP25realestateenterpriseaveragepriceVALUATION17Marketreturn=11.88%Risk-freereturn=2.5%Beta=1.49Costofequity=15.1%Costofdebt=3.0%40.5%59.5%WACC=11.02%A