贸易政策的社会经济及环境综合评价 (南京农大 周曙东)

贸易政策的社会经济及环境综合评价IntegratedassessmentonthesocialeconomicandenvironmentalimpactsoftradePolicy南京农业大学经贸学院周曙东教授IntegratedassessmentonthesocialeconomicandenvironmentalimpactsoftradepolicyPurposeFocusTimingIndicatorsMethodologiesIntegratedpolicyresponsesPurposeExploringthelinkagesbetweentrade,developmentandenvironmentIdentifythepositiveandnegativeimpactsInformingpolicymakersInformingnegotiatorsDevelopingpolicypackagesFocusTrademeasures,tradeliberalizationagreementsandtraderelatedpoliciesTariff,Non-tariffmeasure(TRQ),subsidy,Domesticsupport,TRIPS,SPS,TBTEstablishingareaofassessmentSector,national,regional,globalTimingExanteintegratedassessmentConcurrentintegratedassessmentExpostintegratedassessmentIndicatorsEconomicAveragerealincomeNetfixedcapitalformationEmploymentSocialEquityandpovertyHealthandeducationGenderinequalityIssuesaffectingminoritiesEnvironmentalEnvironmentalquality(air,water,land)BiologicaldiversityOthernaturalresourcestocksMethodologiesMacroeconomicmodelsInput-OutputModel(I-O)analysiswasfirstdevelopedbyWassilyLeontiefinthe1930’s.I-Omodelslookattherelationshipsbetweendifferentsectorsoftheeconomytermsoftheirinput-outputinter-dependence.Thebasicassumptionofthemodelistheexistenceoffixedinput-outputcoefficients,themodelisoftenrepresentedasamatrixortablethatshowstheinput-outputcoefficientsforallthesectorsmakinguptheeconomy.Methodologies1.MacroeconomicmodelsComputableGeneralEquilibriumModel(CGE)CGEmodeldefinesastableeconomicsituation,wheredemandandsuppleareequalizedinallsectors.Itfocusesontheinterconnectednessofmarkets.CGEmodelmakesitpossibletotracetheimpactoftradepolicyexternalitiesonthecostsofproductionandconsumerwelfare.CGE模型是英文ComputableGeneralEquilibriumModel的缩写,国内译为“可计算的一般均衡模型”。1生产模块2贸易模块3收入分配和政府政策4消费模块5均衡模块CGE模型的计算机实现显然人工求解应用CGE模型在一般情况是不可能的。对CGE模型的求解肯定要借助于计算机,在80年代,世界银行开发了一套软件GAMS(GeneralAlgebraicModelingSystem,一般数学模型系统)。GAMS可以用来建立和求解大型经济数学模型。类似高级语言的数据结构定义,GAMS有一套书写规则,使用者只要按照规则逐项写出输入部门,如模型变量、方程、参数、原始数据、目标函数等,就可以得到答案。GAMS具有较好的查错功能,并且输出文件比较系统,大大方便了研究者进行各种分析。另一套类似软件是GEMPACK国务院发展研究中心表一：社会核算矩阵(SocialAccountingMatrix)亚太经合组织贸易自由化的一般均衡模型GlobalTradeAnalysisProject(GTAP)GTAPmodelisawidelyappliedgeneralcomputableequilibriummodeldealingwiththeinteractionbetweentradeandtheenvironment.DevelopedbytheCenterforGlobalTradeAnalysisinPurdueUniversity,version3ofGTAPdividestheworldeconomyinto37industriesorsectorin20countries,and10compositeregionsorcountrygroups.GTAP模型结构图Methodologies2.Sector-based/microeconomicmodelsPartialEquilibriumModel(PE)PartialEquilibriummodelcalculatestheeffectsofpolicychangesononeorseveralsectors,whileignoringtheeffectsonothersectorsontheassumptionthatthegoodbeingexaminedistoosmalltohaveanysignificantimpactontherestoftheeconomy.Substancethroughputrelatedtoeconomicactivitymodel(STREAM)STREAMisapartialequilibriummodelformaterialsflowsdevelopedbytheCPBNetherlandsBureauofEconomicPolicyAnalysis.Itdescribesthematerialflowsofsteel,aluminium,plastic,paper,ammonia,phosphorusandpotassium.Themodelallowsthematerialproducertochoosebetweenprimaryandsecondaryproductionandtechnologiesthatsubsequentlydependontheuseofsuchinputsas:labor,capital,electricity,coal,oil,gas,andrawmaterials.Methodologies3.OtherapproachesLifecycleanalysis(LCA)Thefocusofsomeenvironmentalpolicyischanging,fromanalmostexclusiveemphasisonthereductionofemissions,toabroaderconsiderationoftheentireprocessesinvolvedintheproductionandconsumptionofaproduct.Theendgoalisthedevelopmentofa“productpolicy”aimedatreducingtheenvironmentalimpactsalongtheentirelifecycleoftheproduct.Methodologies3.OtherapproachesGlobalCommodityChainsAnalysis(GCCA)GCCAdoesnotfocusontheinputsandoutputsatthevariousstagesoftheproduct’slifecycle.Itevaluatesthesocialandeconomicrelationshipsbetweenalltheactors(producers,consumers,traders,governmentagencies)involvedinthechain.4dimensions:input-outputstructurealongthechain;territoryservicedbyvariousactors;assessmentofthechain’sinternalgovernancestructure;institutionalframeworkatlocal,national,andinternationallevel.Methodologies3.OtherapproachesScenario-buildingItdoesnotaimtoprojectthemostlikelyoutcomes(forecasting),nordoesitattempttojudgewhatshouldhappen.Instead,analystsidentifyarangeofpossibleoutcomes.Theprocessstartsbydefiningtheareaforinvestigation,whichmaybetheimpactofglobalization,tradeliberalizationortradeagreements.Methodologies4.ApproachesusedinthevaluationExtendedDomesticResourceCost(EDRC)Itaimstomeasuredistortionsinthedomesticsector,sothegainsfromtradeliberalizationcanbeestimated.Whenenvironmentalcostsareincludedinthecalculations,sothatthepricesinthemodelreflectthetruesocialvalueofgoodsandservices,theDRCbecomesextendeddomesticresourcecost.Methodologies4.ApproachesusedinthevaluationShadowpriceInprogrammingmodel,itwillestimatedmarginforresource(land,laborforce),whichcanbeconsideredasshadowpricestobeusedforintegratedassessment.Methodologies4.ApproachesusedinthevaluationCost-BenefitAnalysis(CBA)CBAisaframeworkthatallowsthemonetizedcostsandbenefitsofanactivity,project,orpolicytobecompared,usin