上市公司股票定价实证分析

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I摘要上市公司股票定价是企业进行首次公开发行股票过程中最重要的环节。研究上市公司股票定价问题将对我国股票市场的健康发展具有重要的意义。我国股票市场分为主板、中小板和创业板,各子市场的上市要求各不相同,上市公司股票定价也具有诸多独特的规律和特征。系统全面地比较我国上市公司股票定价的差异,对了解我国股票首次公开发行的定价机制及原理将会产生更深刻的影响。本研究首先回顾了上市公司股票定价过程中涉及的理论研究与实证研究,以此作为寻找上市公司股票定价影响因素的基础。然后将研究视角投向我国股票市场,深入探讨了主板、中小板、创业板的主要区别以及上市要求的差异,并应用描述统计的方法对各子市场的现状进行了分析。通过对2010~2012年786家上市企业上市公司股票定价的研究,证实了主板、中小板和创业板在上市公司股票定价方面存在差异。进一步运用多元线性回归的方法对各子市场上市公司股票定价差异的影响因素进行了分析,得出如下结论:我国上市公司股票定价差异的主要影响因素包括每股净利润、净资产收益、每股净资产、净利润和新股发行数量,这些影响因素是由各子市场中上市企业的自身特征所决定的。关键词:上市公司股票定价差异;主板;中小板;创业板IIABSTRACTIPOpricingisoneofthemostimportantpartsintheprocessofinitialpublicoffering.TheresearchofIPOpricingwillhaveasignificantinfluenceinthesustainabledevelopmentofthestockmarketsinChina.Chinesestockmarketcanbeclassifiedtothemainboardmarket,thesmallandmedium-sizeenterprisemarketandthegrowthenterprisemarket.Thesestockmarketshavedifferentlistingrequirements,andthusIPOpricingofthesemarketshavetheirownuniquepatternsandcharacteristic.ComparingtheIPOpricingpatternsofthesemarketswillprovideadeeperunderstandingofpricingmechanismsandprinciplesininitialpublicofferinginourcountry.ThisresearchreviewthetheoreticalandempiricalstudyrelatedtotheIPOpricingprocess,whichisthetheoreticalfoundationtoseekthefactorsofIPOpricing.Theattentionisdrawntothestockmarketsinourcountry.Theemphasisisonthemaindifferencesbetweenthemainboardmarket,thesmallandmedium-sizeenterprisemarketandthegrowthenterprisemarket.Thedescriptivestatisticsisusedtoanalysisthecurrentsituationsofthesemarkets.Withtheavailabledataof786publiccompaniesbetween2010and2012,itcanbeprovedthatthereexitssignificantdifferenceofIPOpricingbetweenthesethreemarkets.TofigureoutthemainfactorsoftheseIPOpricingdiscrepancy,multivariatelinearregressionisthemostsuitablemethod.TheconclusionisthatthemainfactorsofIPOpricingdiscrepancybetweenthethreemarketscontainearningspershare(EPS),returnonequity(ROE),netassetspershare(NAPS),netprofitandissuingscaleofnewshares,whicharealldeterminedbythefeatureofthepubliccompanies.Keywords:IPOpricingdiscrepancy;Mainboardmarket;Smallandmedium-sizeenterprisemarket;ThegrowthenterprisemarketIII目录中文摘要......................................................................................................................................IABSTRACT...............................................................................................................................II1绪论........................................................................................................................................11.1研究背景及意义................................................................................................................11.2研究思路及方法................................................................................................................11.3文献综述............................................................................................................................22上市公司股票定价基本理论.....................................................................................................52.1上市动机与上市公司股票定价........................................................................................52.2上市公司股票定价的估值方法.......................................................................................52.2.1自由现金流量贴现模型..........................................................................................62.2.2可比公司分析法......................................................................................................62.2.3经济收益附加值(EVA)估值法..........................................................................72.3上市公司股票定价的基本机制.......................................................................................72.3.1固定价格方式..........................................................................................................82.3.2累计投标询价方式..................................................................................................82.3.3竞价方式..................................................................................................................92.4IPO抑价的基本理论........................................................................................................93中国股票各子市场概括与现状比较.......................................................................................113.1中国股票市场特征..........................................................................................................113.2中国股票各子市场特点..................................................................................................123.2.1主板市场................................................................................................................123.2.2中小板市场............................................................................................................123.2.3创业板市场............................................................................................................123.3中国股票各子市场上市要求比较..................................................................................133.4中国股票各子市场现状比较..........................................................................................144上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