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355Vol.35No.520105JOURNALOFCHINACOALSOCIETYMay20100253－9993201005－0876－051211.3000712.300457、、、5。。X913.4A2010－02－211971—。Tel022－25201068E－mailsunaj@teda.gov.cnCauseanalysismodelformajorandseriousaccidentsinasocial-technicalperspectiveSUNAi-jun12LIUMao11.CenterforUrbanPublicSafetyResearchNankaiUniversityTianjin300071China2.TianjinEconomicTechologicalDevelopmentAreaAdministrationofWorkSafetyTianjin300457ChinaAbstractBasedonthesurveyaboutsystemictheoryofaccidentcausesestablishedacauseanalysismodelformajorandseriousaccidentsinasocial-technologyperspectivebyusingthemulti-disciplinemethods.Themodelintroducedacauseanalysissystemwhichincludeshazardinstallationhumanfactorenvironmentorganizationinterventionandso-cialfactorsaswellasthetransmitmechanismforriskcontrolamongfactors.Finallyexploredthereasonsforthefre-quentseriousaccidentsinourcountryandraisedsomesuggestions.Keywordssocial-technologysystemaccidentcausesmodelrisk1。。。、2、3、、、。3、、、/4。4、5。I.SvedungJ.Rasmussen6－7、、、、6AcciMap。NancyG.Leveson8STAMPJ.Ras-mussen。①DOI:10.13225/j.cnki.jccs.2010.05.0225②③④。。9。1Tavistock。、3。、、、3。、。。、10－11。。、10。2090、12。22.1。。。。。。2.1.1。。13。、。。、、、、、。、。2.1.2。、。。。、、、、。778201035、。、、、。2.1.3。。。。。2.22.2.115F1aF1b、F2、F3、F4aF4b、F5ii∈12345Fijj∈123456。1。。。2.2.211。Fij1。2.3RPC14R=P×C。PCPC。①F521Fig.1CauseanalysismodelformajorandseriousaccidentsF54②F42③。PC。①PF2、F33②F41、F55③F34、F51、F53P④、C。。315－172009－02－22T0220152。87851Table1ExplanationforelementsincauseanalysismodelF1F112F12F21F2F22、F23/F31F32、、、F3F33F34、、、F41、、、F42F4F43F44、、、F51、、、、、F52、F53F5F54F55、、、、、、F562Table2BriefcauseanalysismodelforTunlanCoalMineaccidentsinShanxiProvinceF115①②15①②F2F3、、、F4、F5GDP、1。、。2。。、、、、、“”“”。GDP。3、。41。。2、978201035。3。“”。。。1.J.19998336－42.ZhongMaohuaWeiYudongFanWeicheng.Overviewonaccident-causingtheoriesJ.FireSafetyScience19998336－42.2.J.2001223288－290.ZhengShuangzhongChenBaozhiLiuYanjun.Safetycontrolmodelbasedonhumanfactorbehaviorofthecomplexsocio-technicalsys-temJ.JournalofNortheastUniversityNaturalScienceEdition2001223288－290.3.－J.200814138－41.WangYiqunLiPengchengZhangLiTheevolutionofhumanerrorofthecomplexsocio-technicalsystemJ.ChineseJournalofErgo-nomics200814138－41.4.J.200919432－37.YuGuangtaoLiYongjuan.Thenewtrendsofhumanfactorresearchinsafetycontrolofcomplexsocio-technicalsystemsJ.ChinaSafetyScienceJournal200919432－37.5.J.200717611－16.XuZhengquan.StructuralsensitivityanalysisofaccidentcausationincomplexsocialtechnicalsystemJ.ChinaSafetyScienceJournal200717611－16.6SvedungIRasmussenJ.Graphicrepresentationofaccidentscenari-osmappingsystemstructureandthecausationofaccidentsJ.SafetyScience200240397－417.7RasmussenJKarlstad.Proactiveriskmanagementinadynamicsoci-etyswedenA.SwedishRescueServicesAgencyC.2000.8NancyGLeveson.Model-basedanalysisofsocio-technicalriskM.200316.9GB6441－1986.S.GB6441－1986.Theclassificationstandardforthecasualtyacci-dentsofenterprisestaffandworkersS.10.J.200519224－28.DongQiangXieHongchengHanWenmin.Designofnavalvesselsystembasedontheoryofsocio-technicalsystemJ.JournalofEastChinaShipbuildingInstituteNaturalScienceEdition200519224－28.11.J.19831315－22.LiuWenming.Fromergonomicsystemtosocio-technicalsystemJ.AdvancesinPsychologicalScience19831315－22.12“”J.2001191107－108.“SafetyControlforComplexSocio-TechnicalSystem”ConferenceJ.StudiesinScienceofScience2001191107－108.13.J.2003115－7.DingXiaoyang.Innovationoftechnicaldisasteremergencymanage-mentJ.ChongqingEnvironmentalScience2003115－7.14BilalMAyyubWilliamLMcGillMarkKaminskiy.Criticalassetandportfolioriskanalysisanall-hazardsframeworkJ.RiskAnalysis2007274789－801.15.“2·22”J.201035172－75.SunJiping.Thecausesandlessonsof“2·22”gasexplosiondisas-teratTunlanCoalMineJ.JournalofChinaCoalSociety201035172－75.16.J.2008336630－634.CaoShugangZhangLiqiangLiuYanbaoetal.ThecausingmodelofaccidentsandpreventingsystemofsmallminesJ.JournalofChinaCoalSociety2008336630－634.17.3J.2006316706－710.TianShuichengLiHongxiaWangLi.ThreetypeshazardtheoryandpreventionofcoalmineaccidentsJ.JournalofChinaCoalSo-ciety2006316706－710.088