岩土边坡地震崩滑(英)-孙进忠

EstimationandPredictionofEarthquake-inducedCollapseorSlideofRockorSoilSlopewithThreeStepsJinzhongSun1，XiangChen1，YuqingWang21.ChinaUniversityofGeosciences,Beijing1000832.ArchitectureInstitute,ChinaMetallurgyIndustryGroup,Beijing100088EstimationandPredictionofEarthquake-inducedCollapseorSlideofRockorSoilSlopewithThreeSteps1Introduction2ElementaryEstimation3FurtherEstimation4DetailedEstimation5Expectation1Introductionsignificanceofestimationofearthquake-inducedinstabilityofrockorsoilslopeandrelativedevelopment1IntroductionCharacteristicsofearthquake-inducedcollapseandslideofslopesOccurrenceinmassivegroupDistributioninlargeareaPropermeasuresforestimationandpredictionSetupamethodologicalsystemforthepredictionofearthquake-inducedlandslidesofrockorsoilmasswithjudgementandfilterondifferentlevelsfromroughtofine.RelativedevelopmentIn1993,InternationalAssociationofSoilMechanicsandFoundationEngineeringputforwardasetofmethodsfortheestimationandpredictionofearthquake-inducedcollapseorslideofslopewiththreesteps.InChina,themostcommonlyappliedmethodssuchaspseudostaticanalysisetc.areincorrespondencewithexactpredictioninthethirdstepofthreestepmethodmentionedabove.Acertainstudiesrelativetothefirstandsecondsteparealsocarriedoutrecentyearsandhaveobtainedsomeresults.EstimationandPredictionofEarthquake-inducedCollapseorSlideofRockorSoilSlopeswithThreeSteps1Introduction2ElementaryEstimation3FurtherEstimation4DetailedEstimation5Expectation2ElementaryEstimationPossibilityestimationofearthquake-inducedcollapseorslideofrockorsoilslope2ElementaryEstimationTaskofelementaryestimationCircletheareacoverageinwhichearthquake-inducedcollapseandslideofrockorsoilslopesarelikelytotakeplace.ThebasicrelationshipconsideredinelementaryestimationTherelationshipbetweenearthquakeparametersandmovementsofrockorsoilslope.Leadingaspect:IntensityofearthquakeCriteriaforElementaryEstimationBasiccriterion:Intensityofearthquakeanditsinfluencearea,including:•TheminimummagnitudeM0ofearthquakethatpossiblyinduceearthquake-inducedcollapseorslideofrockorsoilslopes.•TheminimumsiteintensityIS0thatlikelycauseearthquake-inducedcollapseorslideofrockorsoilslope•ThemaximumepicentraldistanceRmforacertainmagnitudeMSofearthquakethatcanresultinearthquake-inducedcollapseorslideofrockorsoilslopeIntensityofearthquakes2ElementaryEstimation2.1TheminimummagnitudeM02.2TheminimumsiteintensityIs02.3ThemaximumepicentraldistanceRm2.4Applicationofthecriteriaforelementaryestimation2ElementaryEstimation2.1TheminimummagnitudeM06%94%MS4.7MS4.7Fig.1Statisticsofcollapseorslideeventsofslopestriggeredbysmallearthquakes(MS5)Totalnumberofearthquakes:31collapseorslideeventstriggeredby31smallearthquakesofMS5tellus:MosteventswerecausedbyearthquakesofMS4.7;FeweventswerecausedbyearthquakesofMS4.7,andhadlittledangers.Criterion(1)forelementaryestimation:MS4.72ElementaryEstimation2.1TheminimummagnitudeM02.2TheminimumsiteintensityIs02.3ThemaximumepicentraldistanceRm2.4Applicationofthecriteriaforelementaryestimation2ElementaryEstimation2.2TheminimumsiteintensityIs06164250482280102030405060VVIVIIVIIIIXXXISiteIntensitiesIsEventsoflandslidsFig.2StatisticrelationshipbetweennumberofeventsandsiteintensitiesRelationshipsbetween192eventsoflandslidesandsiteintensitiescausedby71earthquakesinwestChina:ThesiteintensitiesrelativetotheeventsareallequalorlargerthanV;Thereareonly6eventsinVzones,taking3.1％;16eventsarerelativetoVIzones,reaching8.3%,andhaveapparentearthquakedisaster.Criterion(2)forelementaryestimation:ISVI2ElementaryEstimation2.1TheminimummagnitudeM02.2TheminimumsiteintensityIs02.3ThemaximumepicentraldistanceRm2.4Applicationofthecriteriaforelementaryestimation2ElementaryEstimation2.3ThemaximumepicentraldistanceRm456789RmCriterion110100303500R/kmMSEventsoflandslidesEnvelopofdistributingareaFig.3Distributionofearthquake-inducedlandslidesintheplanofMSvs.REnvelopequationofdistributingareaintheplanofmagnitudeMSvs.epicentraldistanceRof71earthquakesthatcause194eventsoflandslides:Rm＝R0(km)MM03S0SMMMCriterion(3)forelementaryestimation:RRmM0=4,minimumMSR0=3000km,limitepicentraldistance2ElementaryEstimation2.3ThemaximumepicentraldistanceRm110100303500MS456789R/kmRmCriterionLandslidesoutofwestChinaLandslidesinLijiang,YunnaFig.4VerificationofRmCriterionReliabilityofRmCriterioncanbeprovedwith47landslidescausedby22earthquakesoutofwestChinaand10landslidestriggeredbytheMS=7earthquakeinLijiang,YunnaProvincein1996.Noeventsexceedtheenvelop.2ElementaryEstimation2.1TheminimummagnitudeM02.2TheminimumsiteintensityIs02.3ThemaximumepicentraldistanceRm2.4Applicationofthecriteriaforelementaryestimation2ElementaryEstimation2.4ApplicationofthecriteriaforelementaryestimationTheconclusionofelementaryestimation•Nocollapseorslide•CollapseorslideislikelytobeinducedRelationshipbetweenthreecriteriaofelementaryestimation•Notindependent•SiteIntensityIScontainsthecontributionsofmagnitudeMSandepicentraldistanceR.NotindependentYesIsthereareliableIS?ISVIMS4.7RRmMS,R,ISNolandslid