33520099Vol133,No15September20098PopulationResearch,,;,DNA;:(1);(2);(3);(4)()();(5);(6):;;;;;;;;;;;,:100871(),,,,11.1HauserandDuncan(1959:2):()()()(),(Xie,2000):(FormalDemography)(PopulationStudies);,,(),1.2,(1),59,,:(Nam,1979:486)(),,,,,,(Xie,2000)Preston(1993),,,;,,(2),,,,,HauserDuncan(1959):(3),,,,;,,Prskawetz(2004),,,,,,2,,,,,(ThomasMalthus)1798,,,,,:,(positivecheck),Boserup(1965),1033,,,,,,,,,,;,20,,,,1957,,(6),,,,,,(,1957427),,,,1978AnsleyCoaleEdgarHoover(1958),1971:,20,:1970,,;1979,,1970,:,,()(),Simon1981(TheUltimateResource),,:,,11,,,1986,:,:,,,,,,(Prestonetal.1986:88)6020,;30,(GDP9.6%),,5112000198220%?(2004,2006):,,,,,;,,,,:,,,(Prestonetal1986:93)FrankNotestein,,LesthaegheVandeKaa(1986),,,19401950,,:Gruenberg(1977)(thehypothesisofapandemicofdisability),;Fries(1980)(hypothesisofmorbiditycompression);Manton(1982):,,,,Becker(1960),EasterlinCrimmins(1985),Caldwell(1976),;,,,,,,33.1,,,,3.2,,(10%),3.3,,105,1233,,,,(AmericanCommunitySurvey)LeslieKish1981,(rollingsampledesign),,,Kish,2003,(),1010%;2010,,,,200320122000,2006,6,;26,3;2,5(GriffinandWaite,2006:218),10%,;,,,,,6,35,,(MacDonald2006:491)3.4,(,),,,,,,3.5,,(Biomarkers)DNA,1984,70(DHS);1997,,,(),,20102013513,A,,DNA,(Vaupeletal.,1998;Christensenetal.,2006)2090,DNA,(HRS),(GE2HA)DNA,,,,DNA,DNA,DNA,DNA,,,,,DNA,DNA3.6,,(OECD),100,,,,1960,,,,(,),,(SDC),1962(ICPSR),300,,ICPSR,(IntegratedPublicUseMicrodataSeries),185020001016,19622006(CPS);1962,2680,1433,,,(),,,,:,4:,,4.1,1952,,,,,20084049,,,,,,,(Prestonetal.,2001:19),,,()1984198720%,,,1991,,19841987,,,,,,,,1.5,1.31.31.5,?,1998,73(19181990)16(19781993)-,(BongaartsandFeeney,1998):,()0.x(0.x0.25),()x%,4,-(2002)(2003),199219961997199917.8%11.0%-(Cohort-component)515,,,,Lee-Carte1992,RogersCrimmins1970,Sullivan(Rogers,RogersandBranch,1989;Crimmins,HaywardandSaito1994;,2002)-,,(Zeng,VaupelandWang,1998;Zeng,Land,WangandGu,2006),PrestonandCoale(1982)Al2fredJ.Lotka1922,,WilliamBrass,196019701980,,,,,,,,,0,-,,(,2002),;,,,4.2,,,(GSI),(FrailtyIndex),,()(Rockwood,2005),(CumulativeHealthDeficitIndex)(Yashin,2007),(Mitnitski,2001)WoodburyManton(GradeofMembership,GoM,Montonetal.,1994;,2001),,1633,,,,(PADIS),4.3,(),;(,2009);,(,,2002),,:1/4,3/4(Herskindetal.,1996),2004,2005,2006,,20062007,NIH2008NIH(NIHSupplementGrantsforStudyingInteractionsamongSocial,Behavioral,andGeneticFactorsinHealth),,,Guo,,,,(Guo,20082009),,APOE4(Zhangetal.,20082009)55.1,6520004.220309.6205014.221652.4%6520007%205016%,6514%26%,80,200020503.4%8020000.720301.920503.86520051.01(7.7%)20503.34(23%);802005130020501,655177%14%1/4,,,(,2007;,2006),19501960,1620041.2,40%15,26()00,,,,,,,,,,,;,Preston(1993:602),,()(),(),FransWillekensMicMac,(),(Booth,2006),5.2LesthaegheVandeKaa(1986),,,,,,,1994200412,,,,5.3,0.51220.4878,,,,,6,2%;,,25%;,50%(Pison,2004),1833,B,,,;,,,,(,,2009;,2004;Zengetal.,1993;Chu,2001;Banister,2004),:(1)(marriagesqueeze)?(2)?(3),?5.4()(),,,,,,,,,,,,(,2007;,2007;,2006),,,2000,2132.7%21.3%2030,80(ZengandGeorge,2008),,,,,,,,5.5,,21001.84.0,59;1/10,,,,,,,,,519,,?,,,,,,2003(Nature),,(Keilman,2003;Liuetal.2003),,5.6(GlobalHealth)(),,,,,;,():,,(Merson,2006),,,,(),4.1,,,,196019701980,,21?,,,,?,,?,216:,,,Cleland1996:(Cleland,1996:450)JamesR.CareyJamesW.Vaupel13,(Biodemography),,;(Vaupeletal.,1998),(Ewbank,2001;IOM,2006),CareyVaupel(2009)(Molec22033ularDemography),(MolecularSociology),(),,(),:SamuelPrestonDirkvanDeKaaJessSautter:1.:30.,2009;32,..,2006;63,,,..,2007;14.19912000.,2003;2:55605.2000.2002.,20056..,20017,..,2002;68..,,,.21.:,20069..,2004;1:111510,..,2002;211..,2004;112,.:.,2006;313..,2002;314..,2007-08-2715,..,2009;416,,..,2007;217,,,..,1991;118Banister,J.(2004).ShortageofgirlsinChinatoday.JournalofPopulationResearch,21(1):19-45.19Becker,G.S.(1960).Aneconomicanalysisoffertility.Pp.209-231In:NationalBureauofEconomicRe2search.DemographicandEconomicChangeinDevelopedCountries.PrincetonUniversityPress,Princeton.20Bongaarts,J.andG.Feeney.OntheQuantumandTempoofFertility.PopulationandDevelopmentReview,1998,24(2),271-291.21Booth,H.(2006).Demographicforecasting:1980to2005inreview.InternationalJournalofForecasting,22:547-581.22Boserup,E.(1965).TheConditionsofAgriculturalGrowth:TheEconomicsofAgrarianChangeunderPopula2tionPressure.AldinePublishingCompany,Chicago.23Caldwell,J.C.(1976).TowardaRestatementofDemographicTransitionTheory.PopulationandDevelopmentReview2(3-4):321-66.52124Caldwell,J.C.(1996).DemographyandSocialScience.PopulationStudies50(3):305-333.25Carey,JamesR.andJamesW.Vaupel.(2009).Biodemography.In:ZengYi(ed.).2009.Demographyvol2umeoftheEncyclopediaofLifeSupportSystems(EOLSS)(),coordinatedbytheUNESCO-EOLSSCommittee.Oxford:EOLSSPublishersCo.Ltd.26Christensen,K.,Johnson,T.E.andVaupel,J.W.(2006).Thequestforgeneticdeterminantsofhumanlongevi2ty:challengesandinsights.NatureReviews:Genetics,7:436-448.27Chu,J.(2001).Prenatalsexdeterminationandsex-selectiveabortioninruralcentralChina.PopulationandDe2velopmentReview,27(2):259-281.28Crimmins,E.M,Hayward,M.D.andSaito,Y.(1994).ChangingMortalityandMorbidityRatesandtheHealthStatusandLifeExpectancyo