译文内容Onthecorporatefinancialriskearlywarningandcontrol(对企业财务风险的预警和控制)译文出处2010InternationalConferenceonFutureInformationTechnologyandManagementEngineeringOnthecorporatefinancialriskearlywarningandcontrolLiuJingzhongEconomicandtradedepartmentShangQiuPolyltechnicShangqiu,HenanProvince,Chinasqzyljz@sina.com;Abstract-Financialriskthatafirmwillbeunabletomeetitsfinancialobligations.Thisriskisprimarilyafunctionoftherelativeamountofdebtthatthefirmusestofinanceitsassets.Ahigherproportionofdebtincreasesthelikelihoodthatatsomepointthefirmwillbeunabletomaketherequiredinterestandprincipalpayments.Earlywarningandcontrollingfinancialriskseffectivelycanprovideasafeandsteadyoperatingenvironment.Thispaperbelievethatthroughanalyzingthefinancialsituation,preparingthecash-flowbudget,establishingthefinancialriskindexsystemandcomputationalmodeltowarnearlythefinancialrisk.Ontheotherhand,throughestablishingeffectivecapitalstructure,selectingcorrectfund-raisingmethodsandkeeptheassetshighlyliquidtocontrolthefinancialriskeffectively.Keywords:IndexTerms-financialrisk;earlywarningindex;controleffectively1.INTRODUCTIONWhatisfinancialrisk?Thefinancialriskisfinanceachievementandtheriskoffinancialstanding.Thefinancialriskseparatesthenarrowsenseandthebroadsense.Thenarrowsensefinancialriskisfallenintodebtthecausablebythebusinessenterprise,concretelysaytomeanbusinessenterprisebecauseoflendfundsbutincrementoflosethepossibilityoftheabilityofrepayingdebtandthevariabilityofthebusinessenterpriseprofits(shareholderincome);Thebroadsensefinancialriskmeansthefinancesystemofbusinessenterpriseinobjectiveexistenceofbecauseofvariousfactorfunctionthatishardorcannotanticipateandcontrol,makebusinessenterpriserealizationoffinancialincomeandexpectationfinancialincomeoccurrencedeviatefrom,asaresultsufferalosingopportunityorpossibility.Inthispaper,financialriskreferstothatbecauseoftheunreasonablestructureandinappropriatefinancing,companiesmaylosesolvency,whichwillleadtothedeclininginexpectedreturnandevenbankruptcyofinvestors.Howdoesfinancialrisk?Financialriskarisesthroughcountlesstransactionsofafinancialnature,includingsalesandpurchases,investmentsandloans,andvariousotherbusinessactivities.Itcanariseasaresultoflegaltransactions,newprojects,mergersandacquisitions,debtfinancing,theenergycomponentofcosts,orthroughtheactivitiesofmanagement,stakeholders,competitors,foreigngovernments,orweather.Intoday'ssociety,debtmanagementisanecessarybusinessstrategyforcorporate.Throughdebtmanagement,corporatecanmakeuptheshortageofequityfund,andearnprofitbyusingloanfund.Thefundneededinproductionandmanagementgenerallycomefromtheissuedshares(orotherequityfunds)anddebt.Inwhich,theinterestburdenofdebt(includingbankloans,issuedcorporatebonds,andtradecredit)isdefinite.Ifdebttakesupahighproportioninthetotalfundofthecompanyorthecompany'sprofitrateislowerthantheinterestrate,thenthedistributableprofitofshareholdersisreduced,thedividendisdecreased,andtheriskofstockinvestmentisincreased.Forexample,whenacompany'sprofitrateonfundis10%andthecorrespondinginterestrateofcompany'sloanortheinterestrateofissuedbond'faceis8%,theinterestincomeofshareholderswillbehigherthan10%;ifacompany'sprofitrateonfundislowerthan8%,thecompanywouldberequiredtopayloansorbondsinterestby8%,theincomeofcommonshareholderswillbelowerthanprofitrateonfund.Infact,thefinancialleverageresultingfromcompany'sfundraisingislikeadouble-edgedsword,andwhentheinterestrategeneratedbyfundraisingishigherthaninterestrate,itwillbringgrowtheffecttoshareholders'income;otherwise,itisthefinancialriskofincomereduction.Corporateusuallyencounterawidevarietyoffinancialrisksinproductionandmanagementprocess.Becauseoftheexistenceoffinancialrisks,corporateareverydifficulttoachievetheinitialfinancialbenefits,andsomeoffinancialrisksmayeventhreatenthenormaloperationandproductionofcorporate.Atpresent,insomecorporate,financialrisksarenotreceivedtheattentionfromthemanagement,thenhowcouldcorporatepredictpotentialfinancerisksandhaveaneffectivecontrolonthemafterdiscoveringfinancialrisks?2.EARLYWARNINGINDICATORSYSTEMOFFINANCIALRISKThefinancialriskidentifiesismanagetothefinancialriskcontentsbeforethedisadvantageousriskjustappearedorappeared,identify,withaccurateheldvariousfinancialriskofsignalanditcreationreason.Thefinancialriskearlywarningwantsbeforethefinancialriskphysicallytakesplaceandcatchesandkeepswatchonvarioussmallevidencetochange,withbenefitpreventionandforadoptanappropriatecounterplantofightfortime.Thegroupwantstobuildupaperfectinformationmanagementsystem,oncediscoveringfinancialrisksignal,theabilityBeaccuratetospreadintoamainpersonnelintime,inordertopreventcircumstancesofgraduallyextension.Toeffectivelypreventfinancialrisks,corporateshouldtakesomemeasuresandestablishearlywarningindicatorsystemforfinancialriskanalysis.2.1AnalyzethechangeincomelevelstotimelydetectrisksignalsCorporateearningsinclude3levels:operatingincome,regularincomeandperiodicincome.Operatingincomemeanstheremainingnetincomedeductingoperatingcosts,managementcost,salecost,taxandotheradditionalc