Energy in the perspective of the sustainable devel

Resources,ConservationandRecycling44(2005)245–262Energyintheperspectiveofthesustainabledevelopment:The2000WsocietychallengeFranc¸oisMarechala,∗,DanielFavrata,EberhardJochemb,caLaboratoryofIndustrialEnergySystems(LENI),EcolePolytechniqueF´ed´eraledeLausanne,CH-1015Lausanne,SwitzerlandbCEPE(CentreforEnergyPolicyandEconomics),ETHZ¨urich,SwitzerlandcFh-ISI(Fraunhofer-Inst.forSystemsandInnovationResearch),Karlsruhe,GermanyAccepted18January2005Availableonline9April2005AbstractAsenergyplaysacentralroleintheworlddevelopment,itrepresentsaswellamajorchallengeforsustainabledevelopment.Today,morethan80%oftheprimaryenergyconsumptionisbasedonfossilfuelsandtheshareislikelytoremainhighinthefuture.Eveniftechnologydevelopmentswillreducethespecificconsumption,theworldenergydemandislikelytoincreaseinlinewithitspopulation.Energyandmaterialefficiencyandtheintegrationoftherenewableresourceswillthereforehavetoplayamajorroleforsustainabledevelopment.Thechallengeconcernsnotonlythetechnologiesattheconversionandusefulenergylevel,butalsotheenergymanagementandinfrastructures.The2000WpercapitasocietyinitiativelaunchedbytheBoardoftheSwissInstitutesofTechnologytargetstheidentificationofthemajortechnologicalbreakthroughstoreducethepercapitaprimaryenergyuseofSwitzerlandbytwo-thirdswithinfivedecades.Thisstudyexaminedtheenergysavingpotentialsinthecompleteconversionchain“fromprimaryenergytoenergyservices”inthemainsectorsofeconomy:buildings,transportandindustry.Thereporthighlightsthepossiblebenefitswhichcouldbeobtainedfromnewmaterials,newtechnologiesandanintensificationofproductandcapitaluse.Thesystemsintegrationappearedtobeofprimeimportanceinordertovalorisetheexergypotentialsoftheenergyresources.Thereportemphasizesthepoliticalresponsibilityofdevelopingtheenablingsocietyinfrastructure:notonlyfortheenergydistribution(electrical,gasorheatingnetworks)but∗Correspondingauthor.Tel.:[phone];fax:[phone].E-mailaddress:francois.marechal@epfl.ch(F.Marechal).0921-3449/$–seefrontmatter©2005ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2005.01.008246F.Marechaletal./Resources,ConservationandRecycling44(2005)245–262alsofortheinformationtechnology,theappropriateregulations,theeducationandforthenecessaryintegrationofthelifetimesofthemanufacturedartifactsinthepathwaytothe2000Wpercapitasociety.©2005ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:Sustainabledevelopment;Energypolicy;Energyconversion;Energyscenarios;Researchanddevel-opment1.IntroductionInthebeginningofthisnewcentury,therationaluseofenergybecomesakeywordfortheworldsustainabledevelopmentbothindevelopedanddevelopingcountries.Fromapresentprimaryenergyconsumptionof10Gtoe,theglobalprimaryenergydemandisexpectedtoraiseabove13.5Gtoein2020withanincreasingshareofthedevelopingcountriesinthereferencescenario(KeyWorldEnergyStatisitics,2001).Consideringthethreatandconse-quencesofclimatechange,theexpectedpeakofoilproductionandthere-concentrationofcrudeoilproductionintheNearEastwithinthenextfewdecades,theBoardoftheSwissFederalInstitutesofTechnologyformulatedin1998thechallengingvisionofa2000Wpercapitasocietybythemiddleofthe21stcentury(BoardofSwissInstitutesofTechnology,2000).Ayearly2000Wpercapitaenergydemandmeasurestheenergyintensityofacoun-try.Itcorrespondsto2000Wyear/yearcapitaor65GJ/yearcapita.Further,inthepaperitwillbereferredas2000W/cap.Thistargetcorrespondsnearlytothepresentmeanenergyintensityofthewholeworldbutafactor2.5reductionoftoday’spercapitaprimaryenergyuseinEuropeandabout5.5reductionfortheUSfigures.Table1presentsenergydemandintensity,thepopulationandtheCO2emissionsfordifferentcountriesaroundtheworld.AssumingadoublingofGDP(grossdomesticproduct)percapitawithinthenext50years,the2000Wsocietyimpliesafactor4improvementinprimaryenergyuse,admittingsomeinfluenceofstructuralchangesonlessenergy-intensiveindustriesandconsumptionTable1EnergyintensityindicatorsinselectedcountriesinW/cap(KWES,2001KeyWorldEnergyStatisitics,2001)CountryW/capPopulation(Mhab)CO2(tCO2/cap)USA1105027320.5OCDE6210111611.0Japan54011279.14EU5228379.48.46Switzerland49667.25.6FormerUSSR41782907.9MiddleEast28201625.5Wholeworld219259213.9LatinAmerica14504082.1China111512602.4Africa8337750.9Asia73118501.0Bangladesh1831270.2F.Marechaletal./Resources,ConservationandRecycling44(2005)245–262247patterns.ThisvisionposesatremendouschallengeforR&Dtoimproveenergyandmaterialefficiencytoreachthegoalwithoutreducingthelevelofcomfortandconsideringtheevo-lutionintheenergyservices.Itisobviousthatcompletelynewtechnologiesandsupportingorganisationalandentrepreneurialmeasuresareneededtomeetthisgoal.Therewasaneedtosearchforthepathwaysthatwouldshowthefeasibilityofthe2000Wsocietyvisionandtoidentifytherolethatresearchwillplaywiththisrespect.Thispaperisbasedontheresultsofacollectivework(Jochemetal.,2003)tomeetthesetwoobjectives.Inthispaper,thefocusisputontheenergyconversionsectorandtherolethatthermodynamicallybasedmethodologiesandadvancedenergyconversiontechnologiescanplayinthiscontext.2.TheanalysisBothefficienciesandenergyservicesdemandhavetobeconsideredintheanalysis.Theenerg