时代文章：中美之间若有冷战会如何？

WhatIfThereWasaColdWarBetweentheU.S.andChina?ByWorldEconomicForumNov.28,20120We’realreadyseeingareturntoColdWareracontainmentstrategies(遏制战略)astherelationshipbetweentheworld’stwolargesteconomiesdeteriorates（恶化）,arguesIanBremmer,presidentoftheEurasiaGroup（欧亚集团）andauthorofEveryNationforItself:WinnersandLosersinaG-ZeroWorld.TheWorldEconomicForum,incollaborationwithTIME,quizzedBremmeronthenatureofU.S.-Chinesetensionsandwhatcanbedonetosoftenthem.WhyisthespecterofU.S.-Chinaconfrontationsoreal?We’reinasituationwheretheworld’slargesteconomyisnotdoingsowell,theworld’ssecondlargesteconomyisstillgrowingverystrongly,albeit（虽然）ataslowerrate,andthetwocountrieshavetotallyincompatible（不相容的）economicandpoliticalsystems.TherelationshipbetweenChinaandAmericaisonlybecomingmoreproblematic.IntheforeignpolicydebatesaheadoftheUSpresidentialelections,ObamareferredtoChinaasan“adversary”（对手，敌手）forthefirsttime.It’snotjustaboutpoliticalposturing（故作姿态）.ChinaisthesinglebiggestchallengetoUSforeignpolicy,inthatAmericansmostlyseeforeignpolicyintermsofhowitimpactstheAmericaneconomy,andChinaisincreasinglyamarketthatmanypeoplebelieveisnotplayingbytherules,fromintellectualproperty（知识产权）tostatecapitalism（资本主义）tocyberattacks（网络冲击）.Similarly,inChinesestatemedia,you’reseeingmuchmoreassertiveness（自信）,moretalkoftheAmericanstryingtocontain（牵制）China,theAmericans“notwantingustobeworldbeaters”,“notwantingustobenumberone”.There’snoquestionthattheAmericansandtheChineseatthehighestleveldounderstandthatit’sdangerousforbothcountriestoallowtheirrelationshiptobeadisaster,sothey’retryingtoavoidunnecessaryconflict.Buttheproblemisn’treallyunnecessaryconflict—it’sthatthenecessaryconflictoverhugestructuralissueslikecurrency（货币）andtradeisbuildingup.Whatwarningsignshaveyouseen?There’sthemassiveincreaseintensionsbetweenChinaandJapan:inthelastfewweeks,therewereanti-Japandemonstrations（运动）inabout100citiesinChina,JapanesecarsalesinChinaweredown49%lastmonth,andeveryCEOIspoketoattherecentIMFmeetinginTokyosaidthatthisissuewoulddramaticallychangetheirviewondoingbusinessinChina.IMF国际货币基金组织MonetaryThisissignificantbecause,ultimately,AmericaisJapan’sdefencepolicy:theyhaveastrategicalliance（战略联盟）,soifthereisaproblembetweenJapanandChina,weknowwheretheUSisgoingtocomedown.HowdoesChina’sholdingofU.S.governmentdebtaffecttherelationship?TheJapaneseareactuallyontracktobecomethelargestholderofUSdebt,externally,notChina.Chinaistryingtodecouple（减弱）fromthedollar.Ifyoulookatwhatthey’redoinginbuildingdomesticconsumptionandexpandingSouth-Southtrade(南南贸易),thenit’scleartheywanttobeinapositionwherethere’slessmutualdependencewithAmerica.Butthat’salongwayoff,andChinaisstillverymuchAmerica’sbanker.WhataboutChina’spoliticalsuccession?InChina,youdon’thavestrongindividualleaders,youhavegovernmentbyconsensus,soasaconsequencetheactualcompositionoftheleadershipisnotgoingtoinfluenceforeignpolicytoomuch.Whatyoudohavearealotofmovingpieces.There’stheBoXilaiscandal,there’sthewayXiJinpingdisappearedoffthesceneforacoupleofweeks:thesethingscauseallkindsofrumours（传闻，谣言）,andthenthegovernmentbecomesmoreriskaverse（风险规避）asaresult.Bothbecauseofthepoliticaltransitionandtheslowdown–globallyandinChina–Chinesegovernmentofficialsarelesswillingtotakerisks,andthoserisksincludethetransitionoftheireconomyandtheirpoliticalsystemtowardsmorestructuralreform（体制改革）.That’swhat’sneededforChinatohaveabetterrelationshipwiththeUS,andit’sabsolutelynothappening.Iftherelationshipweretodeterioratefurther,howwouldthishappen?It’salreadybecominganewkindofcoldwar.WhatthismeansisthattheAmericansandtheChinesewillbefrenemies（友敌）.They’renotgoingtobecomeenemies,becausethat’snotpossible,butthey’renotfriendsanymore,either.AllofAmerica’sallies（同盟国）areverymuchafraidofChina’srise,sothey’rebeggingtheUStoplayamoresignificantroleinAsia.YoucanseewhattheAmericansaredoinginresponse:inSouthKorea,theysignanewballisticmissile（弹道导弹）deal,inIndonesiatheysendoverfighteraircrafts（歼击机）,inAustraliatheysendawholebunchofmarines（海军陆战队）toDarwin,andonandon.TherehavebeenlotsofjointmilitaryexercisesinVietnam（越南）andthePhilippines（菲律宾）.Thenthere’salsothequestionofcyberattacks:ChinaisAmerica’sprincipleenemyinthisarea,andviceversa（反之亦然）.Thebigquestionistowhatextentallthisisgoingtobleedoverdirectlyintotheeconomicrelationship.It’salreadystartingto,inthatalotofAmericanfirmsaresaying“Wedon’thavetheaccessweusedtointoChina,andfurthermoretheChinesearestealingallourstuff.”Whatwouldbethenextphase?You’dstarttoseemoretitfortats（针锋相对）onnewtradetariffs（贸易关税）,andnewsanctionsbetweenthetwocountries.AmericawouldpressitsalliesmuchhardertoaligntheirinvestmentpolicieswiththeUS.You’dstarttoseeUScorporateleaderspubliclycomingoutandtakingananti-Chinaperspective,whiletheChinesewouldbemoreaggressiveabouttheneedtoworkawayfromthedollarasthereservecurrency（储备货币）.Onaculturallevel,inAmericayouwouldseefewerChinesestudents,fewerChinesepeoplebuyingpropertiesthere.AndLordknows,thereisalwaysthepotentialforxenophobia（仇视排斥外国人）:youonlyhavetothinkbacktotheJapaneseinternmentcamps.Ant