北极航道开通对我国北方港口的影响

大连海事大学毕业论文二○一四年六月┊┊┊┊┊┊┊装┊┊┊┊┊┊┊订┊┊┊┊┊┊┊线┊┊┊┊┊┊┊北极航道的开通对我国北方港口布局的影响专业班级：航运管理5班姓名：刘永元指导教师：宫晓婞交通运输管理学院中文摘要摘要北极航线是连接北太平洋和北大西洋之间的最短航线，但由于地处北极，气候寒冷一直无法全年通航。近年来随着全球气候变暖使得北极的北川不断融化，据美国冰川研究中心预测，北极航道将会在2020年左右实现全年通航。北极航道的开通将会对我国的航运业产生巨大的价值。同时北极航线通航对我国北方港口的布局将产生深远的影响。目前，我国北方港口布局较混乱，基本处于无序竞争的状态，各港口争夺腹地、恶性竞争等问题突出。同时由于近年来中欧贸易额的不断增加，中欧航线的需求不断增加。北极航道开通将会缩短我国北方港口到欧洲各港口的距离，这使得我国北方港口面临着跨越式发展的机遇。我国北方港口能否合理布局将会影响到北极航道开通后的综合竞争力［1］。本文在综合国内外研究成果的基础之上，以北极航道通航为前提，对北极航道的现状进行了阐述，对基于中欧贸易的北极航线的经济型进行了分析，描述了我国北方港口的布局现状，同时运用SWOT分析法我国北方的港口进行了全面系统的评价。预测了2020年我国北方港口的外贸型吞吐量。阐述了北极航道开通后对我国北方港口的影响。本文针对上述情况提出了一些对应策略，对我国港口参与北极航线具有一定的参考价值。关键词：北极航线；港口布局；机遇；竞争力英文摘要AbstractTheArcticSeaRouteistheshortestshippingroutebetweenNorthPacificandNorthAtlantic,buttherouteisnotableforshippingannuallyowningtotheextremelycoldweatherintheNorthPole.However,theglaciersintheNorthPolearemeltingwiththeimpactofglobalwarming.AccordingtotheforecastofUnitedStatesGlaciersResearchCenter,theArcticSeaRoutewillbeavailableforshippingalltheyeararoundin2015.Anditwillsuretobenefitalottotheshippingindustryofourcountryandmakeafoundationalimpacttothedistributionofnorthportsatthemeantime.Atpresent,thedistributionofNorthChinaportsisorderlesswhichresultsformviciouscompetitionoftheoverlappedhinterlandaswellastheincreasingvolumeoftradebetweenChina-EUtrade.TheNorthSeaRoutewillnodoubtcurealltheseproblemsandprovidecompletelynewopportunitiestotheseportsinquestion.AndtherationaldistributionofChinaNorthPortswillbeessentialtothecompetitionofnorthpoleshippingbusiness.ThisarticleanalyzethecurrentsituationofnorthsearouteandtheitseconomyforChina-EUtradesbasedonthecomprehensivestudyofotherresearchesandtakethesuccessfulsailingofnorthsearouteasprecondition.Besides,theauthoralsoconsiderthedistributionofChinaNorthportsanduseSTOWmodeltoanalyzethestrengthandweaknessKeywords:thearcticroute;Portlayout;Opportunities;competitiveness北极航线开通对我国北方港口的影响第1章绪论.....................................................................................................................................11.1选题的背景及意义.............................................................................................................11.2国内外研究现状的综述.....................................................................................................11.2.1国内的研究现状......................................................................................................21.2.2国外研究现状..........................................................................................................21.3论文的研究方法及研究框架.............................................................................................31.3.1论文的研究方法......................................................................................................31.3.2论文的研究框架......................................................................................................3第2章北极航道的现状与我国北方港口的现状...........................................................................42.1北极航道的现状和发展趋势.............................................................................................42.1.1北极航道的概述......................................................................................................42.2我国北方港口的现状.........................................................................................................62.2.1我国北方港口的定义..............................................................................................62.2.2我国北方港口布局的特点......................................................................................72.2.3我国北方重要枢纽港现状......................................................................................72.2.4我国北方重要的支线港状况..................................................................................82.2.5我国北方港口布局发展的趋势..............................................................................9第3章北极通航对我国北方港口的影响.....................................................................................103.1对我国北方的大部分港口的发展提供了机遇，...........................................................103.2加快我国北方航运中心的建设.......................................................................................123.3加速我国北方的重要港口由内贸型港口向综合性港口的转变。...............................123.4北加速我国北方港口的整合..........................................................................................133.5扩大我国北方港口的腹地范围.......................................................................................14第4章北极通航条件下我国北方港口吞吐量预测.....................................................................154.1预测的思路及依据...........................................................................................................1541.1预测的主要思路.....................................................................................................154.1.2预测的主要依据....................................................................................................154.2预测方法...........................................................................................................................164.2.1回归分析...............................................................................