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©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:1001-148X(2009)02-0046-03,(,063000):,,,,,:;;:F22419:ATheApplicationofMarkovChainintoMarketEconomicForecastSONGQing-long,SONGCheng-cheng(DepartmentofMathematics,TangshanNormalCollege,Hebei,063000,China)Abstract:Themanagementpracticeusuallyinvolvessuchimportantissuesasmarketforecastanddecision-making,forwhichMarkovanalyticapproachprovesveryeffective.ThepapershowshowtouseMarkovChaintoforecastretai2lingpriceandmarketsharesoastobeconducivetothedecision-makingconcerned.Keywords:MarkovChain;economicforecast;decision-making:2008-02-15:(1963-),,,,:,,,:,n=0,1,2,3,,,,,,,,,,:S1,S2,,Sn:(1)(0),i(i),SiSjPij(1in,1jn),Pij,P,P=(Pij)nn,PiSi,S1,S2,,Sn,nj=1Pij=1.,:(1)=(0)P,(2)=(1)P,,(i)=(i-1),i=1,2n(2):P=,P,=(x1,x2,,xn):P=ni=1Xi=1:,,,,:(1),(2),(3),ii-1,i-1,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:(1);(2);(3),,,19932006[7],11994200619931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006()1,::x1=,x2=,x3=E(x1,x2,x3),(i)=(P1,P2,,Pn),i=1,2,,Pjxj,j=1,2,,n,114,7,1,6,,P1=714=0.500,P2=114=0.071,P3=614=0.429,:(0)=(0.500,0.071,0.429)()Pij,P=(Pij)nn1,2006,6,2,26=0.333,P11=0.333,,:P12=16=0.167,P13=36=0.500;1,0,P21=0,,P22=0,P23=1;P31=46=0.667,P32=26=0.333,,:P=P11P12P13P21P22P23P31P32P33=0.3330.1670.5000010.66700.333P,:3j=3Pij=1,i=1,2,3.(),(i),:(i)=(i-1)P,P,i=1,2,,n1,2006,,(0)=(1,0,0):2007:(1)=(0)P=(100)0.3330.1670.5000010.66700.333=(0.3330.1670.500)2008:(2)=(1)P=(0.4440.0560.500)2009:(3)=(2)P=(0.4810.0740.445)2010,2011:,,,,,,,,:P==(x1,x2,,xn)ni=1Xi=1P=p11p12p1npn1pn2pnnnn(1)=(x1,x2,x3)(x1=,x2=,x3=),P=0.3330.1670.5000010.66700.333(1):0.333x1+0.667x3=x10.167x1=x2x1+x2+x3=1(2)(2)x1=6130.4615x2=130.077x3=6130.4615,,,46115%74382:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:2A9500950020000=0.475B4000400020000=0.2C6500650020000=0.3253ABCA550015002500B50025001000C7008005000:(i)=(i-1)P,i=1,2,,nXAXBXC,,=(XA,XB,XC)(2-1)(0)=(0.475,0.20,0.325)P=P11P12P13P21P22P23P31P32P33:P=[Pij]33(i,j=1,2,3)ABCi,ji=j=1,2,3,,PijABCij,PijABCij,(2-2):P=5500/95001500/95002500/9500500/40002500/40001000/4000700/6500800/65005000/6500=0.580.160.260.1250.6250.250.110.120.77,ABC:(1)=(0)P=(0.4750.200.325)0.580.160.260.1250.6250.250.110.120.77=(0.27170.25460.4737):(2)=(1)P=(0.33630.2400.2437)0.580.160.260.1250.6250.250.110.120.77=(0.27170.25460.4737):(3)=(2)P==(0.24150.25940.4990),A47.5%24.15%;B20%25.94%;C32.5%49.9%,,,:=(XA,XB,XC)P=XA+XB+XC=1:0.58XA+0.125XB+0.11XC=XA0.16XA+0.625XB+0.12XC=XB0.26XA+0.25XB+0.77XC=XCXA+XB+XC=1(3)(3)Xa21.49%XB25.98%XC52.53%ABC21.49%,25.98%,52.53%,A,,,,,,,,,A,-,:B10%,C10%,P1P1=0.580.160.260.2250.6250.150.110.120.77842009/02©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:1001-148X(2009)02-0049-04SVDD,(,529020):,SVDD,,SVDDSVDD,,:;;:F22419:ATheEvaluationofRegionalInnovativeCapabilityinChinaBasedonSVDDWUTing,XIAOJian-hua(InstituteofIntelligentTechnology&Systems,WuyiUniversity,Jiangmen529020,China)Abstract:Inordertoovercometheprevalentdefectsoftheexistingregionalinnovativecapabilitylinearevaluationmethods,aSVDDevaluationmethodisproposedbycombiningtheresultsofthekernelmethod.Intheproposedmethod,thefactoranalysismethodisusedtoreducethedimensionsofthestandardizedsampledatafirstly,andthentheSVDDmodelisusedtoachievetheevaluationoftheregionalinnovationcapability.Thedetailedproceduresaredescribedastherecommendedmethodleadstothedesirableresult.Keywords:datadescription;regionalinnovativecapability;supportvectormachine(SVM):2008-04-01:(1984-),,,,:;(1970-),,,,::,:2005038042;,:63121:P=ni=1Xi=1:XA=26.48%,XB=26.38%,XC=47.14%,A21.49%26.48%:C10%,B10%,P2P2=0.580.160.260.1250.6250.250.210.020.77:P=ni=1Xi=1:XA=31.16%,XB=16.11%,XC=52.73%,A21.49%31.16%4.68%,A:[1].[M].:,2003[2],,,.[M].:,2000[3]SM.[M].:,1997.[4],.[M].:,1997.[5],.[M].:,1996.[6].[M].:,1993.[7]2006.(:)