环境与流离失所——难民研究中心

EnvironmentallydisplacedpeopleUnderstandingthelinkagesbetweenenvironmentalchange,livelihoodsandforcedmigrationFORCEDMIGRATIONPOLICYBRIEFING1AuthorsDrCamilloBoanoProfessorRogerZetterDrTimMorrisNovember2008RefugeeStudiesCentreOxfordDepartmentofInternationalDevelopmentUniversityofOxfordForcedMigrationPolicyBriefingsTheRefugeeStudiesCentre’s(RSC)ForcedMigrationPolicyBriefingshighlighttheverybestandlatestpolicy-relevantresearchfindingsfromthefieldsofforcedmigrationandhumanitarianstudies.Designedtoprovideaclearandaccessiblemeansbywhichrigorousandobjectiveresearchandanalysismayinfluenceawideraudienceofpolicymakersandhumanitarianpractitionersinamannerthatiscurrent,credibleandcritical.Theseriesprovidesauniqueforuminwhichacademicresearchers,humanitarianpractitioners,internationallawyersandpolicymakersmayshareevidence,experience,bestpracticeandinnovationonthebroadrangeofcriticalissuesthatrelatetoforcedmigrationandhumanitarianintervention.TheRefugeeStudiesCentreinvitesthesubmissionofpolicybriefingsonalltopicsofrelevancetopolicyandpracticeinthefieldsofforcedmigration,refugeeprotectionandhumanitarianintervention.FurtherdetailsmaybefoundattheRSCwebsite().TheseriesissupportedbytheUKDepartmentForInternationalDevelopment(DFID).TheopinionsexpressedinthispaperaresolelythoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtoDFID,theRefugeeStudiesCentreortotheUniversityofOxfordasawhole.SeriesEditor:[e-mail]xist?94.Struggleoverdata:thepoliticsofnumbers,theneedfortypologiesofdisplacementandmapping125.Environmentalchangeimpactsonlivelihoods:thecaseforresilience,adaptationandsustainability146.Puttingresilience,sustainabilityandadaptationfirst187.Environmentaldegradationandconflicts:acausalchain?208.Institutionalcapacityandfundingarrangements:developingnewresponses249.Conclusionandpolicyrecommendations30References33Endnotes391environmentallydisplacedpeopleExecutivesummaryThereisincreasingevidencethatseriousandrelativelyrapidalterationstoecosystemsinducedbyclimaticandanthropogenicfactorswillhavedirectandindirectimpactsonsocietieswhich,whenothercopingmechanismsareovercome,willhavenootheroptionbuttomigrateasapermanentortemporarycopingstrategy.Althoughithasnointernationalstanding,widespreaduseoftheterm‘environmentalrefugees’drawsattentiontotheincreasingsignificanceofprotectionandhumanrightsissuesforthoselikelytobedisplacedbyenvironmentalchange.However,thelabelishighlycontestednotleastbecauseitgrosslyoversimplifiesthemulti-causalityofsocial,economicandpoliticalfactorswhichunderpinenvironmentally-forcedmigration.Estimatesoftheglobalnumbersofpeoplewhomaybedisplacedvarysowidelythattheyofferaninadequatebasisforformulatingpoliciesandobscuretheenormousregionalvariationsandresponsesthatwilloccur.Establishingaframeworkoftypologiesofdisplacement,mappingandmonitoringpotentialenvironmental‘hotspots’andchangingregionalconditions,andtrackingmigrationtrends,offeramorefruitfulrouteforpolicydevelopment.Challengesrelatedtomigrationandtheenvironmentincluderapidurbanisationandsprawl,deforestation,soilerosion,agro-chemicalpollution,watershortages,abandonmentofruralareas,declininghealthandphysicalresilience,unsustainableagriculturalandproductionsystems,difficultiesinbuildingeffectivegovernancesystemsandtheeffectsofmigrantsonsourceanddestinationcommunitiesandecosystems.Focusonthegeneralisedpotentialofclimatechangeisobscuringevidencefromthedevelopingworldofadaptabilityandlivelihoodresilienceinthefaceofenvironmentalchange.Thisexperiencesuggeststhatdevelopmentpoliciesshouldbepredicatedonproactivereductionofvulnerabilityratherthanautomaticassumptionsofmassforcedmigration.Climatechangeposesrisktohumansecurity,principallythroughitspotentiallynegativeeffectsonpeople’slivelihoods.However,cautionshouldbeusedinlinkingenvironmentalchangetoconflictandforcedmigration.Substantiallymoreresearchisneededontheenvironmentalchange–conflict–migrationnexusandthewaysitmayunderminehumansecurity.Projectingthelikelyfuturedistributionandmovementofpeopleandrespondingtotheconservationthreatsandopportunitiesassociatedwithmigration,willrequirenewskillsandgreatercollaborationandintegrationamongdisciplinesandorganisations.Inawarmerworld,thetraditionaldefinitionandunderstandingoftheconceptsof‘refugee’and‘protection’maybothneedtochange.2environmentallydisplacedpeoplePublicpolicycanmitigateenvironmentalmigration,butaholisticapproachisneedediftheinternationalcommunityistoovercomedeficienciesinitsunderstandingoftheissuesanditsabilitytomakeprojectionsandimplementresponsemechanisms.TheBriefingstressestheneedforcollaborationbetweendonors,nationalgovernments,UNorganisations(principallyUNHCR,UNEP,UNDP,IOM),theWorldBank,andINGOstodeveloppolicies.Amongstthekeypolicyrecommendationsare:Strengtheningtheknowledgebaseandharmonisingunderstandingby:promotinghigh-leveldialogueinordertodevelopinternationalunderstanding• ofconcepts,knowledge-base,vocabularyandexp