中国太阳能资源和环境气象因子影响分析

[e-mail],,,.[J].,2014,32(20):15-21.100081201270GW70%8.3GW7.8GW7.8GW6.9GW2006200%500%1961—19901991—20003030P422Adoidoi10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2014.20.001AnalysisofChina'sSolarEnergyResourcesandEnvironmentalMeteorologicalFactorsAbstractAbstractSolarenergyresourceisthethirdrenewableenergyfollowinghydropowerandwindpower.Europeremainedtheworld'sleadingregionintermsofitscumulativeinstalledcapacity,withmorethan70GWasof2012,whichrepresentedabout70%oftheworld'scumulativePVcapacity.NextintherankingareChina(8.3GW)andtheUSA(7.8GW),followedbyJapan(6.9GW).Since2006,theannualgrowthrateofnewlyinstalledcapacityofChinahasreachedupto200%-500%,farmorethanthoseoftheothercountriesintheworld.BasedonadetailedanalysisoftheglobalandChinaPVindustrydevelopmentstatus,thispaperstudiesthecharacteristicsofsolarresourcereserves,Chinadistributionandvariation,aswellastheenvironmentalandmeteorologicalfactorsinfluencingtheutilizationsolarenergyresourcessuchasclouds,dust,fogandhaze.TherewasadecreasingtrendofreachthegroundsolarinChinafrom1961to1990,andanincreasingtrendfrom1991to2000.Themeteorologicalfactorslikeclouds,dust,fogandhazemayaffectthesituationofreachthegroundsolar.InChinathetotalcloudandlowcloudarelessinthenorthandmoreinthesouth.ThetotalcloudhasshownaslightlydecreasingtrendandthelowcloudaslightlyincreasingtrendinChinaforthepast30years.SandanddustoccurmainlyintheNorthwestChina,andtheyhaveshownasignificantlyreducedtrend.FogandhazeoccurmainlyinthelocalareaoftheSoutheastChina.Fogdayshaveshownasignificantlyreducedtrend,andhazearapidincreasingtrendforthelast30years.Thedifferentweatherphenomenaindifferentregionsinfluencedifferentlyonthephotovoltaicpowergenerationefficiency.Itishighlyrecommendedthatspecificanalysisshouldbedonebeforeestablishmentofanyphotovoltaicpowerstationinordertobetteruseresourcesandavoidunnecessaryeconomicloss.KeywordsKeywordsphotovoltaic;environmentalandmeteorologicalfactors;solarenergyresourcePANJinjun,JIANGYing,GUOPeng,ZHANGYongshanPublicMeteorologicalServiceCenter,ChinaMeterologicalAdministration,Beijing100081,China1520143220—200620001.4GW0.3GW[1]1200tCO220066.9GW1.6GW200610MW6MW1200tCO22007—20122012102.2GW[1]1612012200614.82000731[1]201231.1GW200619.420001035300tCO2201217000tCO2201255%7.6GW5.0GW3.4GW3.3GW2GW12[1]EPIA201748GW84GW201270GW70%201175%8.3GW7.8GW6.9GW2.4kW1.2GW112000—2012MWFig.1EvolutionofglobalPVinstallationsfor2000—2012(unit:MW)ab1620143220[1]20062006200%500%320092011400%500%33.11.47×1016kW·h[2]4Arcgis4[3]1200W/m2250W/m22160~200W/m23120160W/m24120W/m222.8%44%29.8%3.3%[3]3.2Wild[4]40IPCC4[5]2060—902090606%1990[614][15][16][1719]Zhang[20,21]1961—1990104.61%1991—2000101.76%45022012Fig.2PVmarketsplitin2012ab3Fig.3EvolutionofChinaPVinstallations2000—20124Fig.4DistributionofChinasolarenergyresources1720143220[22]4.150%10°[23]5b50%80%10%60%1981—2012100.3%Kalser[2429]1981—2010100.2%5cbc51981—2010Fig.5DistributionandevolutionofChinacloudfrom1981to2010a4.210km110km1km61981—2010510401820143220—2010100.61.82.26d61981—2010Fig.6Distributionandevolutionofsanddustdaysfrom1981to2010cdba4.3105010507104.12000100.92000107.57c304.4850km10km4850km20km10km70%80%120W/m21920143220—19901991—200033081981—2010Fig.8DistributionofChinavisibilityfrom1981to201071981—2010Fig.7DistributionandevolutionofmistandhazeinChinaform1981to2010cba2020143220[1]EuropeanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation.Globalmarketoutlookforphotovoltaics2013-2017[R/OL].2013-05-08,[2],,.[M].:,2013.ShenYanbo,ChengXinghong,ZhaoDong.Weatherandsolareco-city[M].Beijing:ChinaMeteorologicalPress,2013.[3].[R/OL].2011-08-10,=121&NewsID=1988.CMAWindandSolarEnergyResourcesCenter.DistributionofChinasolarenergyresources[R/OL].2011-08-10,=121&NewsID=1988.[4]WildM,GilgenH,RoeschA,etal.Fromdimmingtobrightening:DecadalchangesinsolarradiationatEarth'ssurface[J].Science,2005,308(5723):847-850.[5]IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Climatechange2007:Thephysicalsciencebasis[M]//SolomonS,ManningM.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFourthAssessmentReport.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2007.[6],,.1961—2003[J].,2009,14(4):405-413.WangYajie,HuangYao,ZhangWen.ChangesinsurfacesolarradiationinmainlandChinaovertheperiodfrom1961to2003[J].ClimaticandEnvironmentalResearch,2009,14(4):405-413.[7]ShiGY,HayasakaT,OhmuraA,etal.Dataqualityassessmentandthelong-termtrendofgroundsolarradiationinChina[J].JournalofAppliedMeteorologyClimatology,2008,47:1006-1016.[8],,,.43a[J].,2008,31(2):200-207.DuChunli,ShenXinyong,ChenWeimin,etal.UrbanclimateandsolarradiationchangesinChinainrecent43years[J].JournalofNanjingInstituteofMeteorology,2008,31(2):200-207.[9],,