集成电路的发展趋势

2005.05.17zzzAboveWavelengthAboveWavelengthSubWavelengthSubWavelength19801985199019952000200520100.11.010SiliconFeatureSizeSiliconFeatureSize3.0µm2.0µm1.0µm0.6µm0.35µm45nm65nm90nm0.13µm0.18µm0.25µmLithographyWavelengthLithographyWavelength436nm365nm248nm193nm157nm32nmzzzzIntelIntelSystemonChipSoC------MakimotoMakimoto0%20%40%60%80%100%199920022005200820112014%AreaMemory%AreaReusedLogic%AreaNewLogicPercentofdieareathatmustbeoccupiedbymemorytomaintainSOCdesignproductivity(or,powerforthatmatter)Anall-memorydesignisprobablyalow-valuedesignSOCSOCzzzSysteminPackageSiP—EmbeddedµProcessorsLPARM0.5-2MIPS/mWASIPsDSPs1VDSP3MOPS/mWDedicatedHWFlexibility(Coverage)EnergyEfficiencyMOPS/mW(orMIPS/mW)0.11101001000ReconfigurableProcessor/Logic10-50MOPS/mW100-200MOPS/mWSource:Prof.JanRabaey,UCBerkeleyzzz––zzzzzzz–zzzzPIM–Moore–RISCPattersonProcessorInMemory(PIM)––5-1050-100zzzzIBMIBMCellCellIBMIBM/SONY/SONYCellCellzzzzEquivalentAddedComplexity68%/YrcompoundedComplexitygrowthrate21%/YrcompoundProductivitygrowthrateYearTechnologyChipComplexityFrequencyStaffStaffCost*3Yr.Design1997250nm13MTr.400MHz21090M1998250nm20MTr.500270120M1999180nm32MTr.600360160M2002130nm130MTr.800800360M*@$150k/StaffYr.(In1997Dollars)LogicTr./ChipTr./S.M.Source:SEMATECHSource:SEMATECHPotentialDesignComplexityandDesignerProductivityHardware-SoftwareConvergence3158282025182248200717921600High-performance587-1384544-1247503-1123466-1012432-912400-821370-740Cost-performance2005200420032002200120001999ChipI/OSilicon-Package-BoardConvergencezzzzzzz–––z–z––CarbonnanotubeQuantumcellularautomataThefutureisnotwhatitusedtobe.Thefutureisnotwhatitusedtobe.SemiconductorICETP2007IC2007SoC347ElectronicTrendPublicationsInc.%%™™™%%2004200320022001zzzz127111zzzzzzzz2010--¾¾¾¾zzz“”zzzzzzzz“”“”“”SourcedataClosewindow)D(1X,0.001X)15MOORE/“”1/100100010100010010zzzzzMPUMPUzzzzzzz“”zzzzRoadmap0.18um,321SPEC200120022003200420052006200720040060080010000.18-0.13um,64,40.13-0.09um,64300MHzUltraSparcII21.3GHzP43422722GHzP4SPEC6007501.22.22.31.333.23.3IssueWindowROBL1CacheAlpha2126464448+41356464KB+64KBSGIR1000064432+32483232KB+32KBHPPA800064456+5656560.5MB+1MBIBMPower364416+24203264KB+32KBPentiumIII32340204016KB+16KB264432+32326464KB+64KBz“”zzzz–z“”“”“”zzzzzzzz“”zz“”“”“”zzzzzz“”(1)zzzz(2)¾¾¾¾¾(3)