基于CGE模型的政策模拟系统的研究

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1.,100083;2.,832000):20060508:(70133011):,,E2mail:[e-mail];,,,,,E2mail:[e-mail],CGEDSS:VisualC++.net;GAMSIDECGE;SQLServer2000,,,:CGE,;CGE;DSS;TP31510074333(2006)05009805AResearchofpolicysimulationsystembasedonCGEmodelLiZhigang1,FuZetian1,ZhengZhian1,LiLing2(1.CollegeofEngineering,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Beijing100083,China;2.CollegeofMachineryandElectricityEngineering,ShiheziUniversity,Shihezi832000,China)AbstractAimingatthesituationthatthesimulatingsystemsareverylimitedforpolicysimulationatpresent,asimula2tionsystemwhichmakesuseofcomputertechniqueispresentedinthispaper.TheVisualC++.netsoftwarewasadoptedtoaccomplishthisintegrateplatform.ThebuildingandsolvingsystemsofCGEmodelwereembeddedintotheGAMSsoftware.ThedatawarehousewassetupbySQLServer2000software.Inthissystem,weintegratedCGEmodel,DSS,datawarehouseanddataconvertintooneandestablishedaprototypeofthePSSBCGEpolicysimulationsystem.Throughthesceneanalyticalmethod,wesimulatedtheagriculturesubsidizespolicy.Theanalyticalresultsdemonstratedthattheprototypesystemhadcarriedoutsomefunctionsofthesimulationsystem.Inaword,thissystemcanbeusedfortheactualpolicysimulationproblemandprovideadecisionsupportfordecisionmaker.Keywordspolicysimulation;computablegeneralequilibriummodel;DSS;systemintegrated,,,,,[1]WTO,,,[28],,ASPEN[2],,;IbaT[3],;[6]ASMEC2I,2006,11(5):98102JournalofChinaAgriculturalUniversity©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[8]CAPSiM,,VisualC6#,,[9](computablegeneralequilibrium,CGE),,CGE,,[1012]CGE,[13],Fair2model,MurphyModel,MSG2,,,[1415],,,CGEDSSCGEPSSBCGE(PolicySimulationSystemBasedonCGE)1CGECGE:,,;,,,,,,CGE1,3CGE11CGETable1FundamentalstructureofCGEmodel,,1)CGE,1,1LeontiefCES[9]1,(-),,2,Leontief,,--,,CES,2),,,LES995:CGE©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[9],,C2D,,,3),CGE,,CGE,(),,=++++4),,(Arming2ton)[9],CES,,,5):;0;6),-,,,CGE75,23152017,,CGE,,,;2,,,,,,2111);,,,,2)CGE,CGEDSS3)CGE;,,;,,212PSSBCGE6:CGECGE(1)001200611©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:MicrosoftVi2sualC++.netPSSBCGE;CGE,GAMSIDE210(Build2116)[16];MicrosoftSQLServer200022PSSBCGEFig.2HierarchicalstructureofPSSBCGE214,CGECGE,,CGE,,33Fig.3Flowprocessdiagramofsystemfunction3,PSSBCGE,:,,,:,,,,,311:,,6:1);2);3);4);5);6):1)(wage),;2)(cpi);3)(RSg);4)(TSubs);5)(PS):1997500192[17]:1,199720%;2,199730%;3,199740%312261356s,4,1015:CGE©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,,4Fig.4Impactsofgrowthofagriculturalsubsidyonevaluativeindex4,PSSBCGE,CGEDSS,CGE,;DSSCGE,,,:,,,[1].[J].,2003(2):2838[2]BasuN,PryorR,QuintT.ASPEN:Amicrosimulationmodeloftheeconomy[J].ComputationalEconomics,1998(12):223241[3]IbaT,HirokaneM,TakenakaH,etal.Boxedeconomymodel:fundamentalconceptsandperspectives[C].FirstInternationalWorkshoponComputationalIntelligenceinEconomicsandFinance(CIEF2000).AtlanticCity,NewJersey,USA:AssociationforIntelligentMachin2ery,2000:941944[4]Beroggi,GiampieroEG.Visual2interactivedecisionmodeling(VIDEMO)inpolicymanagement:Bridgingthegapbetweenanalyticandconceptualdecisionmodeling[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,2001,128(2):338350[5]NijkampP,WangShunli,KremersH.Modelingtheim2pactsofinternationalclimatechangepoliciesinaCGEcontext:TheuseoftheGTAP2Emodel[J].EconomicModeling,2005,22(6):955974[6].[J].,2004(1):7478[7],,,.[J].,2000(08):114120[8],.CAPSiM[J].(),2003(02):3344[9],,.CGE[M].:,1999[10]LarsonBA,ScatastaS.Modelingtheimpactsofenvi2ronmentalpoliciesonagriculturalimports[J].JournalofPolicyModeling,2005,27(5):565574[11]OLooneyJ.Sprawldecisions:Asimulationanddeci2sionsupporttoolforcitizensandpolicymakers[J].GovernmentInformationQuarterly,2001,18(4):309327[12]NwaobiGC.EmissionpoliciesandtheNigerianecono2my:simulationsfromadynamicappliedgeneralequilib2riummodel[J].EnergyEconomics,2004,26(5):921936[13].[M].:,2004[14].(DSS)[M].2.:,2001[15],.[M].:,2003[16]TheSolverManuals,GAMSdevelopmentcorporation.http:[17],,.[M].:,2005201200611