曼昆 宏观经济学 原版PPT 英文版chap04

MACROECONOMICS©2010WorthPublishers,allrightsreservedSEVENTHEDITIONPowerPoint®SlidesbyRonCronovichN.GregoryMankiwCHAPTERMoneyandInflation4Inthischapter,youwilllearn:Theclassicaltheoryofinflationcauseseffectssocialcosts“Classical”–assumespricesareflexible&marketsclearAppliestothelongrunInflationanditstrend,1960-2009-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%19601965197019751980198519901995200020052010long-runtrend%changeinCPIfrom12monthsearlier3CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationTheconnectionbetweenmoneyandpricesInflationrate=thepercentageincreaseintheaveragelevelofprices.Price=amountofmoneyrequiredtobuyagood.Becausepricesaredefinedintermsofmoney,weneedtoconsiderthenatureofmoney,thesupplyofmoney,andhowitiscontrolled.4CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationMoney:DefinitionMoneyisthestockofassetsthatcanbereadilyusedtomaketransactions.5CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationMoney:Functionsmediumofexchangeweuseittobuystuffstoreofvaluetransferspurchasingpowerfromthepresenttothefutureunitofaccountthecommonunitbywhicheveryonemeasurespricesandvalues6CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationMoney:Types1.Fiatmoneyhasnointrinsicvalueexample:thepapercurrencyweuse2.Commoditymoneyhasintrinsicvalueexamples:goldcoins,cigarettesinP.O.W.camps7CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThemoneysupplyandmonetarypolicydefinitionsThemoneysupplyisthequantityofmoneyavailableintheeconomy.Monetarypolicyisthecontroloverthemoneysupply.8CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThecentralbankMonetarypolicyisconductedbyacountry’scentralbank.IntheU.S.,thecentralbankiscalledtheFederalReserve(“theFed”).TheFederalReserveBuildingWashington,DC9CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationMoneysupplymeasures,May2009$8328M1+smalltimedeposits,savingsdeposits,moneymarketmutualfunds,moneymarketdepositaccountsM2$1596C+demanddeposits,travelers’checks,othercheckabledepositsM1$850CurrencyCamount($billions)assetsincludedsymbol10CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationTheQuantityTheoryofMoneyAsimpletheorylinkingtheinflationratetothegrowthrateofthemoneysupply.Beginswiththeconceptofvelocity…11CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationVelocitybasicconcept:therateatwhichmoneycirculatesdefinition:thenumberoftimestheaveragedollarbillchangeshandsinagiventimeperiodexample:In2009,$500billionintransactionsmoneysupply=$100billionTheaveragedollarisusedinfivetransactionsin2009So,velocity=512CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationVelocity,cont.Thissuggeststhefollowingdefinition:TVMwhereV=velocityT=valueofalltransactionsM=moneysupply13CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationVelocity,cont.UsenominalGDPasaproxyfortotaltransactions.Then,PYVMwhereP=priceofoutput(GDPdeflator)Y=quantityofoutput(realGDP)PY=valueofoutput(nominalGDP)14CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThequantityequationThequantityequationMV=PYfollowsfromtheprecedingdefinitionofvelocity.Itisanidentity:itholdsbydefinitionofthevariables.15CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationMoneydemandandthequantityequationM/P=realmoneybalances,thepurchasingpowerofthemoneysupply.Asimplemoneydemandfunction:(M/P)d=kYwherek=howmuchmoneypeoplewishtoholdforeachdollarofincome.(kisexogenous)16CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationMoneydemandandthequantityequationmoneydemand:(M/P)d=kYquantityequation:MV=PYTheconnectionbetweenthem:k=1/VWhenpeopleholdlotsofmoneyrelativetotheirincomes(kislarge),moneychangeshandsinfrequently(Vissmall).17CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationBacktothequantitytheoryofmoneystartswithquantityequationassumesVisconstant&exogenous:Then,quantityequationbecomes:VVMVPY18CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThequantitytheoryofmoney,cont.Howthepricelevelisdetermined:WithVconstant,themoneysupplydeterminesnominalGDP(PY).RealGDPisdeterminedbytheeconomy’ssuppliesofKandLandtheproductionfunction(Chap3).ThepricelevelisP=(nominalGDP)/(realGDP).MVPY19CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThequantitytheoryofmoney,cont.RecallfromChapter2:Thegrowthrateofaproductequalsthesumofthegrowthrates.Thequantityequationingrowthrates:MVPYMVPYThequantitytheoryofmoneyassumesisconstant,so=0.VVV20CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThequantitytheoryofmoney,cont.(Greekletter“pi”)denotestheinflationrate:MPYMPYPPMYMYTheresultfromtheprecedingslide:Solvethisresultfor:21CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThequantitytheoryofmoney,cont.Normaleconomicgrowthrequiresacertainamountofmoneysupplygrowthtofacilitatethegrowthintransactions.Moneygrowthinexcessofthisamountleadstoinflation.MYMY22CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationThequantitytheoryofmoney,cont.Y/Ydependsongrowthinthefactorsofproductionandontechnologicalprogress(allofwhichwetakeasgiven,fornow).MYMYHence,theQuantityTheorypredictsaone-for-onerelationbetweenchangesinthemoneygrowthrateandchangesintheinflationrate.23CHAPTER4MoneyandInflationConfrontingthequantitytheorywithdataThequantitytheoryofmoneyimplies:1.Countrieswithhighermoneygrowthratesshouldhavehigherinflationrates.2.Thelong-runtrendbehaviorofacountry’sinflationshouldbesimilartothelong-runtrendinthecountry’smoneygrowthrate.Arethedataconsistentwiththeseimplications?Internationaldataoninflationandmoneygrowth0.11.010.0100.0110100ChinaSwitzerlandU.S.EuroAreaInflationrate(percent,logarithmicscale)Moneysupplygrowth(percent,logarithmicscale)SingaporeEc