7如何利用DC305评估牧场繁殖关键指标

Email:[e-mail]如何利用DC305评估牧场繁殖关键指标HowDC305isUsedtoMeasureReproductionKPIs中国北京2014.12.13现代化牧场信息管理系列课程ModernDairyFarmInformationManagementCoursesEmail:[e-mail]问题讨论Questions&discussion关键指标分析MeasureKPIs案例分析CaseStudy怀孕最大化MaximizingPregnancies群体分析HeadsmanagementEmail:[e-mail]:[e-mail]繁育Repro.健康Health奶厅MilkingDHI群体分析管理HerdsManagementEmail:[e-mail]如何提高牧场的盈利能力Howtoimprovedairyfarmprofitability如何提高产奶量？Howtoimprovemilkproduction？如何控制成本？Howtocontrolthecost？Email:[e-mail]干奶Dry-Off产犊Calving盈亏平衡线Breakevenmilkproduction典型泌乳曲线TypicalLactationCurveEmail:[e-mail]产奶量MilkEmail:[e-mail]怀孕最大化MAXIMIZINGPREGNANCIES“繁殖是一个牧场经济效益的首要驱动者”“Reproductionisthe#1economicdriveronabeefordairyfarm.”Email:[e-mail]繁殖价值所在WhatistheValue?实际上，怀孕率每增加1％，根据目前的繁殖水平，对于一个典型牧场对应每头牛每年130元的额外纯收益。Inreality,thevalueofa1%improvementinPregnancyRatevaries,dependingoncurrentreproductiveperformancelevel,butforatypicaldairyisworthabout$20/cow/yearinadditionalprofitDeVries,2006Email:[e-mail]?价值所在对于一个典型牧场，怀孕率每增加1%对应91kg产奶量的提升，因此对于1000头牧场就是20000美元的额外纯收益Themarginalbenefitofa1%increaseinpregrateforatypicalherdisabout200lbsmilk(91kg)and$20/cow/year.Thus,fora1000cowherd:$20,000/year基于50%的发情鉴定率，受胎率每增加1%，对应每头牛每年大约10美元的额外收入，因此对于1000头牧场就是10000美元的额外纯收益Withheatdetectionrateat50%,a1%improvementinConceptionRatewouldbeworthapproximately$10/cow/yr.Thus,fora1000cowherd:$10,000/yearDeVries,2006Email:[e-mail]案例分析CaseStudyEmail:[e-mail]15Email:[e-mail]25Email:[e-mail]一个千头牧场额外纯收益变化ThenetProfitincreaseforaheadsize=1000dairy$20*6.3*1000＊1＝¥12600021天怀孕率每增长1%21dayspregnantriskincrease1%Email:[e-mail]$20*6.3*1000＊10＝¥1260000一个千头牧场额外纯收益变化ThenetProfitincreaseforaheadsize=1000dairy21天怀孕率每增长1%21dayspregnantriskincrease1%Email:[e-mail]21天怀孕概率21daysPregnancyRisk首配天数FirstbreedinDIM配种率InseminationRisk受胎率ConceptionRisk……Email:[e-mail]21天怀孕率21daysPregnancyRisk*衡量繁殖表现最有效的指标Singlebestmeasurementofreproperformance由VASDC305首创*OriginallycreatedbyVASDC30517Email:[e-mail]21天怀孕率21daysPregnantRateEmail:[e-mail]21天怀孕率21daysPregnantRateEmail:[e-mail]21天怀孕率的计算21daysPregnancyRiskCalculationPercentofeligible21dayperiods(cycles)resultinginpregnancy情期内可参配的百分比直接影响到怀孕率Calculationforagiven21-daycalendarinterval:#Pregnant/#Eligiblecycles21天怀孕率的公式是：怀孕头数/可参配情期数Note：calculationdoesNOTrequireanyinformationon:这个公式计算无需下面信息Estrusdetectionorsubmissionforinseminations(HDRHeatDetectionRisk)发情揭发率Conception(CRConceptionRisk)受胎率PregnancyriskisNOTcalculatedasHDRtimesCR21天怀孕率不等于发情揭发率乘以受胎率20Email:[e-mail]说明StatementProbability(“Risk”)thataneligibleopencowwillbecomepregnantinthenext21days可能性是指当前空怀的牛有可能在下一个21天里被确认怀孕Numberofpregnancies怀孕牛头数Numberofeligiblecycles可参配情期数2121天怀孕率的计算21daysPregnancyRiskCalculationEmail:[e-mail]ion怀孕率的计算StartDateEligiblePregnant%PgRiskCum#Pg#Open开始日期可怀孕怀孕数怀孕率怀孕总数空怀总数01/01/08100020020%20080001/22/088008010%28072002/12/08120030025%58090003/04/0890018020%76072003/25/08110023021%99087004/15/08110023021%1220870Total6100122020%1220XThetotalisthetotaleligiblecycles,notcows总数是全部可怀孕情期数不是牛数TheoverallaverageisnottheaverageofthePRoftheindividualcycles.总怀孕率不是每个情期的平均数Email:[e-mail]ion怀孕率的计算StartDateEligiblePregnant%PgRiskCum#Pg#Open开始日期可怀孕怀孕数怀孕率怀孕总数空怀总数01/01/08100020020%20080001/22/088008010%28072002/12/08120030025%58090023Email:[e-mail]24•绿色行和红色行是明显并完全独立的21天周期，代表完全不一样的21天周期•Thegreenandtheredhighlightedlinesaredistinctandcompletelyindependent21dcalendarintervals.Withinasinglelineeachcountrepresentsasinglesnapshotfora21dinterval.•每一行中的牛数计算都与其他行独立•Allcows,counts,andcalculationswithinagivenlinecanbedeterminedwithnoinformationarisingfromotherlines.•所以，把怀孕率理解成一个速率或比率是不恰当的的，红色区的1000头牛可能与绿色区的800头牛是完全不同的牛•Therefore,itisINCORRECTtoimplyasenseofspeedortocallthisarate.The1000cowsintheredlinemaybecompletelydifferentcowsthanthe800cowsinthegreenline.Email:[e-mail]可怀孕的定义PregnancyRiskEligibility定义Definingeligibility•PastVWP(standardis50DIM,365daysheifers)foratleasthalfthe21dinterval•已超过主动停配期（产后50天或365天以上的青年牛）至少一半时间窗•Knownopenatstartofperiod•在时间段开始时是空怀•Knownoutcomeatenddateofperiod(PregorOpen)•在时间段结束时已知结果（是否怀孕）•Presentandeligibleatleasthalfof21dperiod•在21天时间窗一半时可怀孕25Email:[e-mail]•NotaDoNotBreed1/2theperiod•在21天时间窗一半时不是DNB牛•Notinbullpen1/2theperiodifAIonlypregrisk•在21天时间窗一半时没有在公牛舍Eachcow’seligibilityisestablishedforeach21dperiod每头牛的可怀孕定义在每个21天时间窗里独立存在•Hypothetically,each21dcalendarperiodcouldhaveentirelydifferentcows.Each21dperiodisitsownisolated“snapshot”intime,sothereisreallynointrinsicspeedandhenceisnotreallyarate•可以假设成每个21天时间窗都有独立的牛只，每个21天时间窗都是独立存在的，所以21天怀孕率并不是一个真正的比率26Email:[e-mail]首配天数FirstbreedinDIM27Email:[e-mail]:[e-mail]配种率29Email:[e-mail]lation配种率的计