《中国汇率政策的未来》(The Future of China’s Exchange Rate Po

31EvolutionofChina’sExchangeRateRegimeintheReformEraReformsofChina’sexchangerateregimehavebeenakeyfactorunderlyingthecountry’sgrowingparticipationinglobaltradesinceeconomicreformbeganin1978.From1949untilthelate1970s,thestatefixedChina’sexchangerateatahighlyovervaluedlevelaspartofthecountry’simport-substitutionindustrializationstrategy.Throughitssystemofeconomicplanning,thestateadoptedpoliciestoaccelerateindustrialdevelopmentinordertoreduceChina’sdependenceonimportedmanufacturedgoods.Thesepoliciesincludeddirectcontrolsonimportsandexports,anovervaluedexchangerate,andtightcontrolsoverforeignexchange.Theovervaluationofthecurrencyallowedthegovernmenttoprovideimportedmachineryandequipmenttopriorityindustriesatarelativelylowerdomesticcurrencycostthanotherwisewouldhavebeenpossible.ButtheovervaluedexchangerateledtoexcessdemandforforeignexchangeandturnedthetermsoftradeagainstproducersofChina’sex-ports,whichinthe1950swerepredominantlyagriculturalandprocessedfoodproducts.Asearlyas1950theChineseauthoritiesintroducedexten-siveexchangecontrolsthat,amongotherthings,requiredthedepositofallsourcesofforeignexchange,includingexportearnings,intheBankofChina,thesoleinstitutionauthorizedtodealinforeignexchange.1Thissurrenderrequirementwasfacilitatedbytheestablishmentofasmallnumberofstate-controlledtradingcompaniesthatspecializedintradeinwell-defined,nonoverlappingproductlines.Bythemid-1950s,thefew1.Beginningin1985thestatebegantograduallyallowotherbankstoconductforeignexchangetransactions.TheBankofChinaisacommercialbankwhilethePeople’sBankofChinaisChina’scentralbank.PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics|’SEXCHANGERATEPOLICYremainingnonstatecompaniesengagedininternationaltradewerena-tionalized,ensuringdirectstatecontrolofvirtuallyallsourcesofforeignexchange.TheBankofChina,inturn,allocatedthelimitedsupplyoffor-eignexchangetopriorityusesidentifiedbythestatethroughitseconomicplanningprocess.Theovervaluationofthecurrencynaturallydepressedthedomesticpricesoftraditionalexportgoodsandunderminedtheincentivetoproducethem.Thestatesoughttoovercomethisproblembyrequiringproducerstoachievespecifiedlevelsofoutputandproductsalestostatetradingcompaniesforsaleintheinternationalmarket.SeveraltypesofevidencesupporttheviewthattheChinesecurrencywassystematicallyovervaluedforthethreedecadesbeforereformbe-ganinthelate1970s.First,thecurrencywasinconvertibleandsubjecttoextensiveexchangecontrols,summarizedabove.Second,thedomesticcurrencycostofearningonedollarinexportsalessubstantiallyexceededtheexchangeratethroughoutthe1950s–70s(Lardy1992,24–27),sofor-eigntradecompanies,onaverage,lostmoneyontheirexportsales.Forexample,in1975productsthatcostRMB3onthedomesticmarketcouldbesoldinternationallyfor$1;butsincetheexchangeratewasonlyRMB1.86perdollar,atradingcompanywouldincuralossofRMB1.14foreverydollar’sworthofinternationalsales.Theselossesonexportswerecov-eredbytheprofitsthesefirmsearnedfromthedomesticsalesofimportedgoodswhosepriceswerebasedonamarkupoverthecostofsimilardo-mesticgoods(Lardy1992,26).Finally,asweexplainbelow,whenthecur-rencyreachedwhatwasarguablyclosetoanequilibriumlevelin1994–95,thislevelrepresentedasubstantialdepreciationfromthatwhichprevailedintheyearsbeforereform.TransitiontoanEquilibriumExchangeRateChina’stransitionbythemid-1990stoasysteminwhichthevalueofitscurrencywasdeterminedbysupplyanddemandinaforeignexchangemarketwasagradualprocessspanning15yearsthatinvolvedchangesintheofficialexchangerate,theuseofadualexchangeratesystem,andtheintroductionandgradualexpansionofmarketsforforeignexchange.Themostimportantprerequisiteformovingtoamarket-determinedexchangeratewasaneasingofcontrolsontradeandothercurrentaccounttransactions,asoccurredinseveralveryearlysteps.In1979theStateCouncilapprovedasystemallowingexportersandtheirprovincialandlocalgovernmentownerstoretainashareoftheirforeignexchangeearnings,referredtoasforeignexchangequotas(previouslytheseearningshadtobesurrenderedintheirentiretytotheBankofChina).Atthesametime,thegovernmentintroducedasimilarsystemtoallowretentionofpartoftheforeignexchangeearningsfromnontradePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics|’SEXCHANGERATEREGIMEINTHEREFORMERA5sources,suchasoverseasremittances,portfeespaidbyforeignvessels,andtourism.Thisforeignexchangeretentionsystem,introducedtoprovideincreasedincentivesforexportsandothersourcesofforeignexchange,evolvedincomplexways.Differentratesweresetfordifferenttypesofcommodities—forsomeproductsretentionswereallowedonlyforincrementalexportsaboveabaselevel,frequentlythemagnitudeofexportsintherecentpast;and,overtime,regionallydifferentiatedratescametoreplaceproduct-specificrates.Butthenetresultwasthatbythemid-1980s,onlyafewyearsafterthesystemwasintroduced,about40percentofallforeignexchangeearningswasinthehandsofprovincesandexportproducerswhilethecentralgovernmentcontrolledtherest(Lardy1992,51–57).AsearlyasOctober1980,exportingfirmsthatretainedforeignex-changeabovetheirownimportneedswereallowedtoselltheexcessthroughthestateagencyresponsib