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CONFIDENTIALDiscussiondocumentFebruary,2001了解中国的个人金融服务ThisreportcontainsinformationthatisconfidentialandproprietarytoMcKinsey&CompanyandissolelyfortheuseofMcKinsey&Companypersonnel.Nopartofitmaybeused,circulated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsideMcKinsey&Company.Ifyouarenottheintendedrecipientofthisreport,youareherebynotifiedthattheuse,circulation,quoting,orreproducingofthisreportisstrictlyprohibitedandmaybeunlawful.EMFIGPracticeAPMarketingPracticePFS010212HK-misc12000年PFS市场覆盖调查NewZealandKoreaTaiwanChinaAustraliaSingaporeHongKongPhilippinesThailandIndiaIndonesiaMalaysia•亚太地区14个国家和巴西、土耳其•5,733个家庭–平均每个国家约400个样本•中等和中等收入以上家庭(PFS产品和服务的积极使用者)•内容–购买行为–拥有的产品类型–渠道的利用率–态度–人口统计•三年(1998,1999,2000)Japan*TurkeyBrazilPFS010212HK-misc2CHINAPERSONALFINANCIALSERVICESSURVEYSAMPLEDESCRIPTION•中国4个大城市的代表样本–Beijing–Shanghai–Guangzhou–Wuhan•年龄:21-64岁有经济决策权•收入情况–3个顶尖城市，年均家庭收入在RMB$30,000以上–1个内陆城市家庭年收入RMB25,000以上过滤•45-mininterviewswithquestionscoveringfinancialneeds,buyingbehaviour,preferences,attitudes,productusage,etc.MaininterviewSource:teamanalysis,governmentstatisticsPFS010212HK-misc31.Marketisattractivewithmanyopportunities2.PFSsurveyfindings3.Customersegmentation4.ImplicationCONTENTPFS010212HK-misc4•13亿人口中只有15％生活在城市里，他们的生活比较富裕•GDP年均复合增长率CAGR(1992-1999)推动了总产阶级和富裕阶层的产生•Increasingpercapitaincomedrivingdemandforfinancialproductsbeyondbankdeposits•Highsavingsrateestimatedat45%ofGDP•Agingpopulationwithover65segmentestimatedtoreach7%by2000•Verylimitedrangeofconsumersavingsandinvestmentproducts,supportedbyverybackwardservices•Mortgageandconsumerloanmarketcreatedonlyattheendof1995•OtherconsumerloanproductsareseverelyrestrictedbyPBOC•Marketinfrastructureveryunsophisticated,e.g.,mostbankbranchesarenotabletosharedata•Traditionalchannelsdominate,i.e.branchesforbanks•Foreignentrantshaverecentlyintroducedcommissioned-agents,andprofessionallyrunagencysystem•Slowdevelopmentofalternativeandremotechannels;stilllargelyacash-basedsociety•Lackoflocalexpertiseandprofessionaladvicetoeducatecustomers•Marketlargelyclosedofftoforeignplayers•Highlypoliticallicenseapprovalprocess•Governmentunderincreasingpressuretoliberalize,tofacilitateWTOentry•ReformofstateownedenterprisesSOEsresultinginreductionofwelfarebenefits•Reformofwelfaresystemresultinginshiftofpensionandhealthcareresponsibilitiestocompaniesandindividuals•Weakregulatoryframeworkthatisalsopoorlyimplemented,resultinginalackoftransparency•RMBbusinesscanbeattractivewithwiderspreadsgiventhelatentdemandfor,butlackofalternativesavingsandinvestmentproducts,andunsecuredconsumercreditlines•Profitsinsomecustomersegmentswillbecomeincreasinglysqueezedasaresultofgovernmentregulationsandcompetition•Marketdominatedbystate-owned,oraffiliatedfinancialinstitutions•Emerginglocalandforeignentrantsareaggressivelypenetratingandexpandingmarketshare•Largenumberofforeignplayersintentonmaintainingapresence/toeholddespitestrongentrybarriersCompetitiveenvironmentRegulatoryenvironmentChina’sPFSmarketevolutionConsumerdemandDistributionProductsProfitabilityCHINAPFSMARKETISUNDERGOINGSIGNIFICANTCHANGESPFS010212HK-misc510010010099HISTORICALLYFASTGROWINGPERSONALFINANCIALSERVICESMARKETSINCHINASource:ChinaStatisticalyearbook,ChinaBankCardoffice,McKinseyanalysisMutualfundsSecuritiesDeposit100%=$5,351Marketsizeandgrowth,RMBbillions948687879108232331100%=$5,359$6,833$4.2$33.4$75Mortgages19971998CAGR100%1999PFSassetsLifeinsurancePension$3,100ESTIMATE1994PFSLiabilitiesConsumerloans1997199819991994$13319971998199919961995PaymentQuasi-credit&creditcardoutstanding(RMBbillion)100%=1421222324CAGR17%CAGR11%1111000.21PFS010212HK-misc62%40%BUTPENETRATIONOFPERSONALFINANCIALPRODUCTSREMAINSCOMPARATIVELYLOW,MONEYISINBASICDEPOSITSource:EIU,literaturesearch,McKinseyanalysisOutstandingbalancesaspercentofGDP1999ChinaUSMortgageStockbrokeringCreditcardDeposit0%17%ChinaConsumerfinance0%5%China73%35%China3%27%ChinaUSUSUSUSPFS010212HK-misc7LOWPENETRATIONISEXPLAINEDBYLACKOFSUPPLYRATHERTHANLACKOFDEMANDASDEMONSTRATEDINCREDITCARDCASESupplyofcredithinderedby...•PBOCsettightlimitonoverdrafttoavoidcreditexplosion•Lackofintegratedpaymentnetworktofacilitateefficienttransactionprocessing•Slowspeedindatatransmissionthroughunderdevelopedtele-lines•NopersonalcredithistoryinChina•BanksareconservativeaboutoverdraftaspotentialriskishighduetopoorcontrolandriskmanagementsystemChinesecultureisnotnecessarilydebtadverseRevolvingcreditpercentofcardspend4228205USTaiwanHongKongChinaPFS010212HK-misc8ProductCurrentmarketsize(1999)RMBBillionsROAbeforetaxPre-taxprofitpoolRMBBillionsEst.growthrateCompe-titionRegulationFavorableNeutralUnfavorableMORTGAGESANDCREDITCARDSARETHEMOSTATTRACTIVEPFSPRODUCTSDepositMortgageCreditCardStockbroking*Lifeinsurance/pension5,96212612021181,6400.51.52~50.22.52.922~43.54115~2040-6032-4018~2525-30*Currentlybanksdon’tdirectlyprovideinvestmentandinsuranceproductsSource:ChinaInformationBank,McKinseyanalysisx=ESTIMATEPFS010212HK-misc950.093.0156.421.027.023.021.720.61996199719981999Source:ChinaFinanceYearBook;ChinaBankCardsOffice;LaffertyReportCARDANDMORT