2016美赛E题一等奖论文

ForofficeuseonlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________TeamControlNumber47512ProblemChosenEForofficeuseonlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2016MCM/ICMSummarySheetBalancingsupplyandDemand:CombatagainstWaterScarcitySolvingworldwaterproblemisanurgenttaskfacinganygovernment,institutionandindividual.Ourpaperconsistsoffourparts:Thefirstpartistofigureouttheindexwhichrepresentstheabilityofoneregiontomeetitswaterdemand.ThesecondpartfocusesonfindingoutthedeepcausesofwaterscarcityinXinjiang(China).Inthethirdpart,weforecastthewatersituationinXinjiangin15yearsandanalyzetheinfluenceoncitizens’life.Finally,wedesignamacrointerventionplanspecificallyforXinjiangtorelievethewaterstress.Wecarefullyanalyzetheinfluenceofthisplanonlocalwatersituationandsurroundingareas.Firstly,wedefineZastheindexmeasuringtheabilityofoneregiontomeetitswaterdemand.ThevalueofIndexZisdeterminedbysixteenfactorsfromfourcategories,suchaslong-termprecipitationandagriculturalareas.WeemployAHPtocalculatetheweightofeachcategory.ThenweutilizethePCAtofigureouttheirfinalscore,multiplythesescoresbytheirweighttogetthevalueoftheindexZ.Consideringthedynamicnatureofthesefactors,wechoosedifferentpredictingmethodsbasedonthetrendofrealdata.WefinallychooseGM,Cubicsmoothingandsomeothermethodstopredicthowthesefactorschangewithtime.ThusweareabletofindouthowthedynamicindexZchangeswithtime.WepickeightcountrieslikeChina,theUnitedStatesandfigureoutthevalueofZintheyear2014,2019and2024.WemeasuretheirabilitytomeetlocalwaterdemandbycomparingZ.Next,wepickXinjiang(China)asstudiedregion.WefirstdefineβtorepresentthedegreeofhowthesefactorsinfluenceIndexZbyusingweightandcorrelationcoefficient.Thenweaccordinglyworkoutthemostinfluentialfactorscausingwaterscarcitythere,theyarecultivatedland,internalgroundwater/surfacewaterandpolicyonwaterdispatch.Afterwards,wecollectdataofsixteenfactorsinXinjiangasof2014.WethenuseModel1topredictthevaluesofindexZinthe15years.Thenweareabletoanalyzethewatersituationinthisregioninthenearfutureanditsimpactonhumanlife.Lastbutnotleast,wedesignaninterventionplanbasedonmostinfluentialfactorsinXinjiang.Theinterventionplanhasfouraspects:Dispatchwaterresource,employadvancedirrigationtechnology,properpricingmechanismandRecycling.WethenconstructtheSystemDynamicModeltosimulatetheinfluenceofinterventionplanoneco-system,localwatersituationandsurroundingareas.WeforecasttheindexZinthenext15yearswhentheinterventionplantakeseffecttoseeitsinfluenceonthewatersituationinXinjiang.Aspartoftheplan,waterisdispatchedfromTibet(China)toXinjiang.WeanalyzetheinfluenceoftheplanonTibetbypredictingtheindexZinTibetwhendifferentproportionofwaterdispatched.Astosensitivityanalysis,weintroduceaconceptofaveragesensitivityindex.Everysinglefactorhasacorrespondingaveragesensitivityindex.Thehighertheindexis,themoreinfluentialofthisfactortoindexZ.Bysubstitutingconcretedataintocalculation,wefindvariationtrendofaveragesensitivityindexagreewithβ.Thisindicatestheeffectivenessofmodel1.Finally,weofferourrecommendationsonworldwaterproblembasedonourpaper.Sincewaterscarcityisaninterdisciplinaryproblem,wegivethefollowingadvice.1)Improvemanagementinagriculturalconsumption.2)Smarteconomicpricingmechanism3)Advocatetechnologyforrecycling.Content1Introduction..............................................................................................11.1Background.......................................................................................................11.2OurWork...........................................................................................................12ModelonMeasuringtheIndexZ............................................................1Overview.................................................................................................................12.1Assumptions......................................................................................................22.2SymbolsDeclarations.......................................................................................22.3IndexZCalculation...........................................................................................22.4PredictingDynamicFactorsCombingThreeMethods....................................62.5MeasuringSomeareasbyIndexZ....................................................................82.6LevelsofIndexZ...............................................................................................93AnalysisinChosenArea..........................................................................93.1Choosinganarea——theXinjiangProvinceinChina.....................................93.2DecidingmostInfluentialfactorscausingwaterscarcity..............................103.3DecidingInfluentialfactorsofwaterscarcityinXinjiang.............................103.4ResultandAnalysis.........................................................................................104ForecastingtheWaterSituationanditsImpact.....................................114.1Fore