居家养老与中国养老模式

20003ECONOMICREVIEWNo132000,,,:,,;,,,,,?,,:11,,,;,,,,,;,,,,,,,;,,21,,,;,,;,,,,,31,,,:,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,41,,,:(1)95,;(2),;(3),;(4),,,,,,37,51,,:,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,:,:11,(),(),3ö4,1ö4,,,7’3;,,,10%,,2120,,,,;,,21,,,;,,,,,,,:(1)();(2)()();(3)(68)06:,,,,,,:11:,,,,199721:,,1998(8)31AndrewCaplin&JohnLeahy,BusinessasUsual,MarketCrashes,andWisdomAftertheFact,AmericanEconomicReview84,54865,1994.41BarryEichengreen,AndrewRoseandCharlesWyplosz,ContagiousCurrencyCrises:FirstTests.FinancialLiberalizationandMacroeconomicsStability,editedbyAnderson,TorbenM.andMoene,KarlO,BlackwellPublishers,pp.122,1996.51StefanGerlach&FrankSmets,ContagiousSpeculativeAttacks,EuropeanJournalofPoliticalEconomy11,pp.563,1995.61Llan,GoldfajnandRodrigo,Valdes,BalanceofDaymentsCrisesandCapitalFlows:TheRoleofLiquidity,UnpublishedManuscript,MIT,1995.71PaulKrugman,AModelofBalanceofPaymentsCrises.JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking11,pp.311325,1979.(:200083)(:)(60),,,,;(4),,31,,,1%,,4:(1),;(2),;(3);(4)410%,,,41,,,,,3:,,,(),3’6’1,3ö10,6ö10,1ö10,2’1’12ö4,1ö4,,:,;,,:,1998(5),78,548,,,1998,1998-12-03,1998(10)(:430072)(:)86