长江防洪堤南京段设计洪水位风险分析

:19971215:,,,.(210098)(210011),,,3.,10122m27,1001018m.;;TV214,,.,.,,3,,.11Table1TimesofannalhigheststageovercertainvalueatXiaguangaugestationH9.00mPaH9.50mPa11912193625125.002193719702538.312531971199626102.64641912199676145.4515:..19121996(19381946)76:9100m14,251,253,2610;9150m5,250,251,264.,.1.,15,ŠH15t(1).1,,70.115Fig.1Courseof152yearmoveaverageannalhigheststageatXiaguangaugestation27219993JOURNALOFHOHAIUNIVERSITYVol127No.2Mar.1999,19121954,19121996,19541996,197019964.2,2.2Fig.2FrequencycurvesofannalhigheststageindifferentperiodsatXiaguangaugestation2Table2FrequencyanalysisresultofannalhigheststageatXiaguangaugestationŠHPmCVCSH1%/mH2%/mH5%/m1954Pa119121954348.190.080.409.909.689.35250219121996768.340.090.2710.229.999.60100319541996438.500.100.1010.5010.289.9045419701996278.700.090.1010.5810.3510.00352,4.2,4,.19121954,1954250.,.27,35.,.1980,9150m4,19839199m19919170m19959166m19969189m.72600m3/s,63800m3/s,74600m3/s,74400m3/s,195492600m3/s78%,68%,80%,80%.1954,,,10122m.4,1954,10122m.,,,.2,.,3.:(a);(b);(c);(d).211,19221994(192619281938322723Fig.3InfluencefactorsofstageatXiaguangaugestation1946),1970.34.3(=20%)Table3HypothesistestresultofannalmaximumdischargeseriesatDatonggaugestation/(m3s-1)/(m3s-1)tt/2ff/2119221969345557110711219701994255909680881.3581.2901.7531.662:;t,ftf;t/2,f/2tf.tt/2,ff/2,.4Table4FrequencyanalysisresultofannalmaximumdischargeseriesatDatonggaugestationŠQ/(m3s-1)CVCSP(m3s-1)Q1%Q2%Q5%11922196934555710.170.0077000746007080021970199425590960.140.007830076000726004,20,P=1%,2%,5%,,.,,.2129618%,3%,,;,,.,,.,,.213,1952195619831987,.,,0191501953.,H,Q,H=41801+015926QH=31956+018186Q(Qm3/s),8050(4),.,.:198819947,7m3/s,50,9100m,79100m4;195492600m3/s10122m,,11150m.196019945080,.,5.5,0148m,P=1%,2%,5%01810194m.,.214,CO2,.100,015,,.42199934Fig.4RelationshipbetweenthestageofXiaguananddischargeofDatongindifferentperiodsoftime,80,5Table5Frequencyanalysisresultofannalhigheststagededucedfromdifferentstage2dischargerelationshipsatXiaguangaugestationŠH/mCVCSPmH1%H2%H5%19601994508.2640.060.009.429.289.0819601994808.7390.080.0010.3610.179.8910cm.,.,,012.,..:,,,,;,,..3,.,3:(a);(b);(c).,3.311,,.,,.,,.312,LR.LR,;LR,52272.,LR,,{RL},P:P=P{RL}=rr0fRL(r,l)drdl(1):fRL(r,l)LR.,LR,P=P{RL}=rr0fL(l)fR(r)drdl(2).:;.,[1].313,.,.,,.(,),Hd.,,HFH(h).P:P=P{HHd}=HdfH(h)dh(3),,,.,,,.,3.a.,.1970,,.1,19701996,ŠH=8170m,CV=0109,CS=0110.6.6Table6ThedesignfloodstagesofXiaguangaugestationcorrespondingtodifferentdesignfrequenciesPa5102050100200P%20105210.5Pm19.349.7010.0010.3510.5810.7929.359.7010.1010.4010.7010.9839.329.7310.1010.5010.8111.0819701996,30.2.b.,197019968100m53,ŠH=8164m,CV=01065,CS=1120,,.,,12,PnPc:Pn=1-(1-Pc)2(4)6.c.19701970=20%,=10%,t/2=11672t=11358,f/2=11925f=11753,,,.,192219946219993,,80,,6.3.,,3,3.7Table7TheriskofdifferentfloodstagesofXiaguangaugestationPm9.009.5010.0010.2210.5011.0011.50Pa37182750167588P%31.0014.505.703.702.000.600.17,8019221994,,7.,,,,.,,.,!1..,1989(5):815RiskAnalysisofDesignFloodStageofNanjingSectionofYangtzeRiverFlood2ProtectingEmbankmentLiGuofangHuangZhenping(CollegeofWaterResourcesandEnvironment,HohaiUniv.,Nanjing210098)ZhangZhiqiangYeSong(NanjingYangtzeRiverManag.Bureau,Nanjing,210011)AbstractThefloodstageoftheYangtzeRiveratNanjingtendstoriseinthepastdecades.Forthesagetyoftheflood2protectingembankment,itisnecessarytorecalculateitsdesignfloodstage.Thecausesoffloodstageriseareanalysed,andtheriskfordifferentstagesiscalculatedwiththreeschemes.Resultsshowthatthereturnperiodofthehigheststageof10.22metresobservedattheXiaguangaugestationis27years,andthedesignfloodstagecorrespondingtothereturnperiodof100yearsisabout10.8metres.Keywordsstage;designfloodstage;risk72272