十二五规划 英文 MACQUARIE

Pleaserefertotheimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertificationoninsidebackcoverofthisdocument,oronourwebsite–Coal12Commodities–Cement14Commodities–Paper15Commodities–Steel&BaseMetals16Consumer18Healthcare21Infrastructure23Oil&Gas27Prop[e-mail][e-mail],CFA,[e-mail]+Sectoranalystsasdetailedwithin.24September2010China’s12thFive-YearPlanInvestableshiftfromgrowthquantitytogrowthqualityMoreevolutionarythanrevolutionaryWiththeaftershocksoftheGlobalFinancialCrisisand“globalimbalances”stillreverberatingthroughinternationalmarkets,andwithChinahavingrecentlyattainedthestatusoftheworld’ssecond-largesteconomy,investorsarelookingtowardOctober’sreleaseofChina’s12thFive-YearPlanforkeyguideposts.Yetinvestorsmayneedtotemperexpectations.WithChinawellalonginitsmarketdevelopment,thedaysaregonewhenBeijingcouldexactlydetermineChina’seconomicpath;andmuchofthenewplan’sthrustshouldbeacontinuationoftheeconomicrebalancinginitiativeslaidoutinthe11thFive-YearPlan(2006–10)–apolicybiasalreadywellknowntomarkets,andthusinmanycaseslargelypricedintolistedequities.Investablethemes–fromgrowthquantitytogrowthqualityStill,webelieveChinaismarkingapathwherethequalityofgrowth–intermsofcomposition,efficiency,andenvironmentalimpact–nowcommandsmoreattentionatthemarginthansheerquantity.Thisincludeseffortstorebalanceaggregatedemandtowarddomesticconsumptionandservice-sectoractivityfromexportmanufacturingandinvestment.Thisimpliesreducedmaterial-andenergy-intensivity,tobeeffectedinlargepartthroughhigherfactorcosts–suchaswages,energy/utilitytariffs,land,and(potentially)capitalcosts.Whiletheseinitiativeswillgeneraterelativewinners,theymayalsoimplydownwardpressureonmarginsgenerally,andadeclineinChina’soverallprofits-to-GDP(whichroseprecipitouslyoverthepastdecade).Asinrecentyears,weexpecttoseecontinuedemphasisonruralreformandWestern-regionaldevelopment–apolicybiasthatwillcontinueaffectingpatternsofconsumption,creditgrowth,andconstruction/investmentactivity,amongothers.Thesearchfornet-yet-fullypricedplaysWedistilthesethemesintoaselectlistof‘Top25’Five-YearPlanstocks(Figure3,page4).Keyamongthesearenamesinvolvedin1)newenergyvehicles,2)cleanpower(includinggas,wind,coal-to-liquid),3)western-regionaldevelopmentand/orurbanizationintolower-tiercities,4)urbanrailbuild-out,5)medicalsystemexpansion,6)privateconsumptionandretailmalldevelopment,and7)financialinnovation.Yet,asnoted,manyofthesethemesarealreadywellknowntothemarket.Intheefforttoidentifyoutstandingvalue,wefilterour‘Top25’for1)historicalPERdiscountslargerthanthecurrentMSCIChinadiscountof8%;2)historicalP/BVdiscountsof30%ormore;and/or3)aPEGratio(basedonthree-year2010–12ECAGR)belowMSCIChina’s0.6xPEG.Bythesestandards,relativevalueamongFive-YearPlanbeneficiariesisfoundinDongfengMotor,ABC,MinshengBank,Sinoma,GuangshenRailway,Mindray,PetroChina,LongyuanPower,DongfangElectric,ShenhuaEnergy,andChinaCoalEnergy.MacquarieResearchChina’s12thFive-YearPlan24September20102StrategyMoreevolutionarythanrevolutionaryWiththeaftershocksoftheGlobalFinancialCrisisstillreverberatingthroughinternationalmarkets,therelatedissueof“globalimbalances”stillverylive,andChinahavingrecentlyattainedthestatusoftheworld’ssecond-largesteconomy,investorseverywherearelookingtowardOctober’sreleaseofChina’s12thFive-YearPlan(FYP)--whichwillcovertheperiod2011-15--forkeyguidepostsastohowAsianandworldeconomiesandmarketscanbeexpectedtoevolveintheforeseeablefuture.Theintensityofinterestisunderstandable;MacquarieHeadofChinaEconomicsPaulCaveypointsoutthattheFive-YearPlanshavebeenChina’smaintoolofeconomicdevelopmentsince1953(withtheexceptionofafour-yearhiatusintheaftermathoftheGreatLeapForwardin1962).SowhatBeijingsaysinthenextfewweekswillofferimportantguidepostsforChinaspecialistsandnon-specialistsalike.Yetinvestorsmayneedtotemperexpectations.Theplanbyitsverynatureislikelytobemoreaboutgeneraldirectionthanspecifics;andmuchofthe12thFYP’sthrustwillinfactbeacontinuationoftheeconomicrebalancinginitiativeslaidoutinthe11thFive-YearPlan(2006-10)–apolicybiasalreadywellknowntomarkets,andthusinmanycaseslargelypricedintolistedequities.Moreover,withChinawellalonginitsmarketdevelopment,oureconomistsalsonotethatthedaysaregonewhenthecentralauthoritiesinBeijingcouldexactlydetermineChina’seconomicpath--indeed,ashasbeenseen,BeijinghashaddifficultyevenachievingthesmallernumberofquantifiablegoalsithassetinrecentyearscomparedtopreviousFYPs.Soinvestorsareadvisedtofocusmoreoninvestablegeneralthemesandpolicybiasesthanonspecific‘quantifiables’,asweelaboratebelow.Investablethemes–fromgrowthquantitytogrowthquality1)Macro-level.Chinaismarkingapathwherethequalityofgrowth–intermsofcomposition,efficiency,andenvironmentalimpact--nowcommandsmoreattentionatthemarginthansheerquantity.Overtheplanperiod,ifeffortssucceedtoeffectarebalancingofaggrega