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283Vol.28No.320066JOURNALOFTHECHINARAILWAYSOCIETYJune2006:100128360(2006)0320018204,,,(,100044):,,2008,,,Logit,,(Logit),5,,,,,10%:;;Logit;:U293.13:ATheModeShareModeloftheHigh2speedPassengerRailwayLineandItsApplicationHEYu2qiang,MAOBao2hua,CHENTuan2sheng,YANGJing(SchoolofTrafficandTransportation,BeijingJiaotongUniversity,Beijing100044,China)Abstract:Anetworkofhigh2speedpassengerrailways(HSPRs)arecurrentlyinplanningandconstructionpha2sesthroughoutChina,andaresettobeginoperationsin2008.Underthecurrentconfigurationofintercitypas2sengertransport,therailnetworkreceivessubstantialcompetitionfrombusandairtravelmodesonthemanyofthesamecorridors.Itisexpectedthattherailwaymodesharewillincreasesignificantlyaftertheintroduc2tionoftheHSPR.Theobjectiveofthispaperistopredictthemagnitudeofthesechanges,andtheconcomitantimpactsonthecompetingmodes,forintercitytravelbetweenthecitiesofBeijingandTaiyuan.Alogitmodelwhichiswidelyappliedinthetransportationresearchwasusedfortheanalysiswhichselectedeconomy,speedi2ness,convenience,comfort,safetyasits5targets.ThemodelpredictsthattheHSPRlinebetweenBeijingandTaiyuanwillmostsignificantlyimpacttheroadandaviationindustry,drawingawayalargenumberofpassen2gersandincreasingtherailwaymodeshareby10%.Keywords:HSPRline;competitiveability;logitmodel;utilityfunction,,,,,2008,:2005210217;:2006203213:(2005K0332C(X)):(1978),,,E2mail:heyuqiang5188@163.comLogit[1,2,7,8],,,:(1);(2);(3)11.1,,,,,,,,,,,,,5:(1)EiEi=RiLi(1),Rii;Lii(2)Fi=(Li/vi+2li/v)V(T)(2),vii;lii;v;V(T)300km,20%50%[3]V(T)=GDPtP(3),GDP;P;tijji,,V(T)=(Vi(T)+Vj(T))/2(3)(W)Ci=WV(T)(4)i,,,,(E(W)),11:h1.20.25/131.51.80.25/131112:3/(4)(Mi),,,8.26%,2,5%10%2/%44.9529.828.267.804.135.05(5),,44.95%,2,,[4],35,,,,,EiFiCi,,Vi=((Ei+Fi+Ci)-Mi)/Si(5),Sii;Eii913;Fii;Cii;Mii;1.2LogitPi=exp(-Vi)6ni=1exp(-Vi)(6),,Pi=exp(-Vi/V)6ni=1exp(-Vi/V)(7),VV=6ni=1Vi/n2,500km,,,32.1,,,3,/,8%3/h///h130.9984338.3210.52(8.92/1.6)0.250.91219.687.1(5.5/1.6)1.50.9941333342.72.92(0.92/2):31h,;1;334;333590,74(3)2004:29.69/h,17.22/h,23.46/h,,,,18/h4//%354959.63178730.2361610.35N,m,N[5]f(|P)=P(N1,N2,,Nm|)=N!N1!N2!Nm!7PNii(8)(8),,,N=5952,m=3,:=0.021,=0.087,(7)Vi(5)Vi=(0.021(Ei+Fi+Ci)-0.087Mi)/Si(9)2.2,475km(283km,190.2km),200km/h,810h(,)2.5h,,,,,,,,0.275/km,,0.4/km,0.4475=190/,,,,,022855/h///h0.50.9919015.24.1(2.5/1.6),,66/%70.0722.307.6320086,70.07%,10%,2004,,2008,,,,,,,10%7.63%,,,3Logit,,,,,,,,,,,,20082020,:[1],,.[M].:,1999.[2].[M].:,2004.[3].[A].[C].:,2005.[4],.[J].,1999,(6):69.LIQunren,ZENGHuixin.ThesocialcostofTransportionmodesinJinhucorridor[J].ChinaRailway,1999,(6):69.[5].[J].,1993,6(1):5156.PiaoJinan.AStudyofIntercityTransportModeChoiceModel[J].ChinaJournalofHighwayandTransport,1993,6(Sup.1):5156.[6],,.[J].,2004,4(3):113117.HEWei,KUANGMin.AnalysisontheGameTheorya2mongTransportCompaniesBasedonProductsDiversities[J].JournalofTransportationSystemsEngineeringandInformationTechnology,2004,4(3):113117.[7]Nuzzolo,Agostino,Crisalli,UmbertoandGangemi,Francesca.Abehaviouralchoicemodelfortheevaluationofrailwaysupplyandpricingpolicies[J].TransportationResearchPartA:PolicyandPractice,2000,34(5):395404.[8]Kottenhoff,KarlandLindh,Christer.ThevalueandeffectsofintroducinghighstandardtrainandbusconceptsinBlekinge,Sweden[J].TransportPolicy,1995,2(4):235241.()123