英国证券市场投资文摘

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHMorganStanley&Co.InternationalplcOctober29,2009##ConsumerDiscretionary##ConsumerStaples##Energy/Utilities##Financials##Healthcare##Industrial/BusinessServices##Materials##Media##Property##Retail##Technology##Telecommunications##TransportationMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CustomersofMorganStanleyintheUScanreceiveindependent,third-partyresearchoncompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyEquityResearch,atnocosttothem,wheresuchresearchisavailable.Customerscanaccessthisindependentresearchat=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.NorthAmericaEuropeHIGHLIGHTSUKmacrowatchershaveplentytooccupythemselveswithatpresentastheyconsiderthe3QGDPweakness,thefuturepathofQE,forthcomingchangestofiscalpolicyandthedownwardpressureonGBP.WebelievetheUKmacrooutlookwillremainhighlyuncertainforsometimeandseelittlescopeforratehikesuntilthelatterstagesofnextyear.Wearenotparticularlyconcernedbythislatestboutofequityweakness,asitmayactuallybehelpfulindelayingtheonsetofthetighteningphase,andwecontinuetorecommendourreliablegrowthandcommoditythemes.EphremRavihasupgradedAngloAmericantoOverweightashebelievesthestockhasoneofthebestnear-termorganicgrowthpipelinesincopperandironoreandhissum-of-the-partsanalysisimpliesthatAmplatsisnoweffectivelyinthepriceforfree.GrahamSecker([phone])UKStrategistUKINVESTMENTPERSPECTIVESStrategyandEconomicsUK3UKStrategyASorryStateGrahamSecker5UKEconomicsUKStillinRecessionMelanieBaker,CathSleemanGlobal7EuropeStrategyTighteningChecklistTeunDraaisma11GlobalEquityStrategyWheelingtheGreaseGerardMinack,JasonTodd13EuropeCreditStrategyTheOtherSideofBankDeleveragingAndrewSheets,CarlosEgea17USEconomicsFedspeak:RoadmapfortheExitRichardBerner,DavidGreenlaw19USCreditStrategyRateReliefRizwanHussain,GregoryPeters,AdamRichmond21CurrencyStrategyLookWho’sTalkingSophiaDrossosIndustry&CompanyAnalysis23InitiationInsuranceInitiationonLloyd’sofLondonInsurers–OWAmlin,UWBritAdrienneLim,AndrewBroadfield2MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHOctober29,2009InvestmentPerspectives—UKTableofContents(continued)(continued…)27ÇAngloAmericanAmplatsIsEntirelyUpsideEphremRavi,AlainGabriel,MarkusAlmerud29FirstGroupOutlookforSchoolBusRemainsPositive–StayOWJaimeRowbotham,MennoSanderse,P.Butcher31ÇLloydsBankingGroupWeighinguptheAPSExitOptionsStevenHayne33ÇStandardCharteredBankUpgradingDuetoLowerCreditCosts+BetterWholesaleRevenues–EWStevenHayne,ChrisManners,AnilAgarwal35VedantaGoingAgainsttheTideEphremRavi,MarkusAlmerud,AlainGabrielPortfolioandValuations37UKEconomicForecasts38Indices,SectorandStockPerformance40DiaryofKeyUpcomingEvents45CompanyandDirectors’ShareBuybacks50UKStockCoverageListStrategyandEconomicsMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHOctober29,2009InvestmentPerspectives—UK3October29,2009UKStrategyASorryStateMorganStanley&[e-mail]recessionMacrowatchersintheUKhavelotstokeeptheirattentionjustnow;however,likeatypicalepisodeofEastenders,theviewingexperienceispredominantlyamiserableone.Thepoor3QGDPnumberoutlastweek,whilesubjecttoperhapsconsiderablerevision,isfinalconfirmationthattheUKeconomyislikelytojustlimpoutofthisrecession,certainlyinrelationtoitsglobalpeers.Atthesametime,monetarypolicyisswimminginaseaofQEuncertainty,thefinancialsystemisinastateofflux,banklendingremainsanaemicandGBPremainsundersignificantdownwardpressure.UKeconomicprogressfullofuncertaintyAlthoughthetraditionalleadingindicatorsarepointingtobettertimesahead,investorsarelikelytobecautiousinadoptingamorepositivetoneonthedomesticeconomy.Inparticular,wethinkitisgoingtobequiteproblematictogaugethetruestateofeconomicperformanceoverthenext2-3quartersgiven:1)TheprobableincreaseinVATin1Qislikelytobringforwardsomedemandinto4Qanddepressdemandin1Q.Further,aVAThikewillputupwardpressureoninflation,which,inturn,shoulddepressrealGDPgrowth.Inshort,realGDPgrowthcouldquiteconceivablybepositivein4Qbutnegativeagainin1Q.2)Thisuncertaintyislikelytoruninto2QasweapproachaprobableJuneGeneralElectionthatislikelytocreateevenmoreuncertaintythanusualgivenapossiblechangeofgovernment/hungparliamentandsubsequentimplicationsforfiscalpolicythereafter.2QwillalsoseethefirsteffectsoftheincometaxhikestheGovernmenthasalreadyannounced.3)Againsttheabovebackdropinvestorsalsoneedtocontendwithanever-evolvingmonetarypolicywithquestionssurroundingboththequantityand(moreimportantlywefeel)theefficacyofthisstimulus