物联网市场研究报告

abiresearch.comNEWYORKLONDONSINGAPORESCOTTSDALE+1.516.624.2500+44.(0).203.326.0140+65.6592.0290+1.516.624.2500ResearchReportCELLULARMACHINE-TO-MACHINE(M2M)MARKETSMarketOpportunitiesandTrendsforEmbeddedModulesSamLucero:PracticeDirector,M2M&EmbeddedDominiqueBonte:GroupDirector,Telematics&M2MSEPTEMBER15,2011EXECUTIVESUMMARYTopLineForecastIn2010,telemetry-relatedapplicationsrepresentedthelargestshareofthecellularM2Mmodulemarket,with16.90millionmodulesshipped,asshownbelowinChart1.Telematicsapplicationsweresecondwith9.55millionmodulesshippedin2010,andWirelessLocalLoop(WLL)applicationswerethirdwith7.47millionmodulesshipped.ABIResearchestimatesthat33.92millioncellularM2Membeddedmoduleswereshippedin2010.Chart1:TotalCellularM2MModuleShipmentsbyApplicationWorldMarket,EndUser-BasisForecast:2007to2016(Chart35intheaccompanyingExceldeliverable)(Source:ABIResearch)Overtheforecastperiod,however,ABIResearchanticipatesthattelematicsapplications—consumerOEMtelematics,consumeraftermarkettelematics,andcommercialtelematics—willincreasetoaslightlygreaternumberofunitsshipped(55.47million)in2016comparedtotelemetry(54.46million).Thisisduetotwoprimaryfactors.1)Large-scaletelematicsprogramsareoccurringintheEuropeanUnion(eCall),LatinAmerica(theBrazilianstolenvehicletrackinglaw),aswellasvariousUSconsumerOEMtelematicsprogramsfromGMandothercarmakers.2)ThereappearstoberenewedinterestonthepartofTierOneautomotiveOEMstoworkwithmerchantmarketmodulemakerstosourcecellularradiosfortelematicscontrolunits,ratherthantodevelopin-housecustomsolutions.0204060801001201402007200820092010201120122013201420152016Shipments(Millions)IndustrialPDAFWTOtherTelehealthRIDVendingATM/POSRMACSecurityAMICommercialTelematicsAftermarketTelematicsOEMTelematicsABIResearchestimatesthat33.92millioncellularM2Membeddedmoduleswereshippedin2010.abiresearch.com©2011ABIResearch•abiresearch.comThematerialcontainedhereinisfortheindividualuseofthepurchasingLicenseeandmaynotbedistributedtoanyotherpersonorentitybysuch.Licenseeincluding,withoutlimitation,topersonswithinthesamecorporateorotherentityassuchLicensee,withouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofLicensor.2ResearchReportCELLULARMACHINE-TO-MACHINE(M2M)MARKETSDriversWhileeachoftheabovecellularM2Mmarketapplicationsegmentswillhaveitsownuniquesetofdriversandenablers,thefollowingfactorsshouldstimulatethecellularM2Mmarketaswhole.Enhancedenterprisecustomercapabilities:EnterprisecustomersincreasinglyviewM2Mtechnologiesandapplicationsasameansofincreasinginternalefficiencies,reducingrisk,anddevelopingnewservice-orientedrevenuemodels.Expandedcellularnetworkcoverage:Ascellularnetworkcoverageexpands,thisenablesmorecellularM2Mapplicationsindevelopedeconomies(e.g.,long-haultrailer-tractortrackinginNorthAmericaismovingfromsatellitetocellular),aswellasindevelopingeconomies.Benefitsfromthescaleandinvestmentinthemobilephoneindustry:Alongwiththedeploymentofcellularnetworkinfrastructure,cellularM2MapplicationsbenefitfromtheR&Defforts,andsemiconductorcostdecreases,resultingfromthehighvolumeseeninthemobilephoneindustry.MNOsseekingtocapitalizeonfast-growingM2Mmarket:AsMNOsfaceincreasinglysaturatedcorevoice/datamarkets,theyaresearchingfornewgrowthopportunities.Overthepast24months,especially,keytargetsofopportunityhavebeenconnectedCEdevices,mobileservicesindevelopingeconomies…andM2M.Stimulationfromgovernmentregulationsandmandates:Worldwide,governmentalregulationsandpolicymandatesareontheincrease,especiallyintheareasofenergyconsumption,healthandsafety,andworkingconditions.InnovativeenablingtechnologiesfacilitateM2Mapplicationdeployment:M2MServiceDeliveryPlatformsandApplicationDevelopmentPlatformshelptoeasetheapplicationdevelopmentburden.Embeddedsoftwaretooptimizeremotedeviceconnectivityoncellularnetworksshouldalsobecomemoreprominentinthecomingmonths.InhibitorsEachcellularM2Mapplicationsegmentwillhaveitsownindividualsetofchallengesandrestraints.Nevertheless,ABIResearchbelievesthefollowinghaveaninhibitingeffectonthecellularM2Mmarketasawhole.ComplexityofcellularM2Mapplicationdevelopmentanddeployment:Integratingremotemonitoringandcontrolfunctionalityoftenentailssignificantdevelopmentexpenseandfundamentalchangestobusinessprocesses.LimitedcellularM2Mknowledgeandexperienceamongpotentialcustomers:CellularM2Misoftenanenablingtechnologytoanexistingproductorservicewhosemaker/serviceprovidermaylackknowledgeorexpertiseinthebenefitsortechnicalrequirementsofintegratingcellularconnectivity.Costsensitivity:Whilecostsaredecliningonaper-moduleandper-MBbasis,thesecostsarestillhighforsomeapplications.Forexample,smartmetersdirectlyconnectedtothecellularnetworktypicallyneedARPUcostsatlessthan$0.50/meter/month.Remainingregulatoryandbusinessmodelbarriers:Forexample,telehealthservicesarenotuniformlyreimbursedinallmarkets,whichreducesincentiveforutilizingremotemonitoringtechnologies.LegacyMNOissues:WhilenotapplicabletoallMNOs,somechallengesremain,includingroaming,legacyinfrastructure,certification,andbureaucracy.MarketShareNotwithstandingrelativelynewvendorentrantstothecellular