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176200812JOURNALOFNATURALDISASTERSVo.l17,No.6Dec.,2008:2008-07-26;:2008-10-18:(40701172);(20070027018);,(2007DFA20640);:(1976-),,,GIS;:,Emai:llijing@ires.cn:1004-4574(2008)06-0053-07(Ñ))))蒋卫国1,2,李京1,2,陈云浩1,2,盛绍学3,周冠华1,2(1.,100875;2./,100875;3.,230061):,;;;,:;;;:P426.616:ARiskassessmentsystemforregionalflooddisaster(I):principleandmethodJIANGWe-iguo1,2,LIJing1,2,CEHNYun-hao1,2,SHENGShao-xue3,ZHOUGuan-hua1,2(1.StateKeyLaboratoryofEarthSurfaceProcessesandResourcesEcology,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing100875,China;2.AcadamyofDisasterReductionandEmergencyManagement,MOCA/MOE,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing100875,China;3.AnhuiMeteorologicalBureau,Hefei230061,China)Abstract:Flooddisasterriskassessmentisanewstudyfield.Basedontheconceptofflooddisastersystem,theprincipleofflooddisastermanagementsystem,theprincipleofflooddisasterriskassessmentandtypesofflooddis-asterriskwereanalyzed.Theindexsystemofflooddisasterriskassessmentwasdevelopedinconsiderationoftheprinciple,hierarchystructure,measurestandard,riskclassandriskindex.Theassessmentcellswithtypeofvec-torplaneandrasterpointwereexplained.Themethods,suchasanalytichierarchyprocess,fuzzysyntheticevalua-tionandspatialanalysis,wereintroduced.Keywords:flooddisaster;riskassessmen;tprinciple;method[1],[2][3],,[4],,11.1,[5-6],,,,,,20,,,,,,1998,-[7],200412,11,[8],,,:3d,,,,[9-10],,[11],,,1998,[12],,,,,,,,[10],,,,,,,,,,,1.2,,[13]3,,(1),4:(2),,,,,,,,#54#171.31989Maskrey[16],1991[17],,,:8(3),,,,,,,,,,,1.4[18][19],,,,,(4)22.1,,,,:#55#6:(Ñ))))(1),,,(2),,(3)(4),,,,,,2.2,,(5)(1):,(2):,(3):,,:,:,:2.3,(1),33,,,GDP,,,5Fig.5Hierarchystructureofflooddisasterriskassessment1Table1Indexsystemofflooddisasterriskassessment1233LandsatDEMLandsatDEMGDPLandsat#56#172.4,,,mm,DEMm,/km2,GDP,DEM,GDP,,,,,,,,;DEM,,DEM,,,:(1),,(2)(D1,D2,D3,D4,D5),(3),,(4)2.535105:,0~10~100~1000~5,,3,,,3.1,/0:(1),,,(2),,,(3),,,[20]3.2/0,/03.3,,,,(),44.1Saaty2070,,,,,,,,#57#6:(Ñ)))),,,[21-22]:(1),(2),(3),(4),(5)4.2Zadeh2060,,,,[23-24],,,,,,(),,:4.3,[25],;;,;,GIS,,,,,,GIS,,,:[1],,.(1951~1980)[M].:,1985.[2],,.GIS[J].,2004,24(4):452-457.[3].[M].:,2004.[4],,.[M].:,2003.[5].[J].,2005,14(6):1-7.[6].[J].,2002,11(3):1-9.[7].1998[J].,1998,3(4):314-322.[8]NarayanJP,SharmaML,MaheshwariBK.Run-upandInundationPatternDevelopedDuringtheIndianOceanTsunamiofDecember26,2004A-longtheCoastofTamilnadu(India)[J].GondwanaResearch,2005,8(4):611-616.[9]BurtonI,KatersRW.TheEnvironmentasHazard[M].SecondEdition,TheGuilfordPress,NewYork,1993.[10].[J].,1996,5(4):6-17.[11]KaspersonJX,KaspersonRE,BL.TurnerII.RegionsatRisk:ComparisonsofThreatenedEnvironments[M].UnitedNationsUniversityPress,Tokyo.NewYork,Paris,1995.[12].[J]..1999(1):9-13.[13]WolfgangGaratwa,ChristinaBollin.DisasterRiskManagementWorkingConcept[M].DeutscheGesellschaftfrTechnischeZusammenarbeit(GTZ)GmbH,2002.[14]GTZ,Eschborn.GermanTechnicalCooperationinDisasterPreventionandMitigation[R].2000.[15]ErichJ.Plate.Floodriskandfloodmanagement[J].JournalofHydrology,2002,267:2-11.[16]MaskreyA.DisasterMitigation:ACommunityBasedApproach[M].Oxford:Oxfam,1989.[17]UnitedNationsDepartmentofHumanitarianAffairs(UNDHA).MitigatingNaturalDisasters:Phenomena,EffectsandOptions:AManualforPol-i#58#17cyMakersandPlanners[M].NewYork:UnitedNations,1991:1-164.[18]URSNewZealandLimited(URS).ThamesCoastFloodRiskAssessment[R].PreparedforEnvironmentWaikatoandThames-CoromandelDistrictCounci,lJuly2003.[19],,.-[M].:,2004.[20],.)Ñ:[J].,1997,6(4):1-9.[21]GYalcin,AkyurekZ.Analysefloodvulnerableareaswithmulticriteriaevaluation[R].UnpublishedMSThesisinGGITMETU,Ankara,2002.[22],.GIS[J].,2005,60(1):87-94[23]NayakPC,SudheerKP,KSRamasastr.iFuzzycomputingbasedrainfal-lrunoffmodelforrealtimefloodforecasting[J].HydrologicalProcesses.2005,19,955-968.[24],.[J].,2002,11(1):89-93[25],,.[J].,2000,55(1):92-103.#59#6:(Ñ))))